Brown beats New Haven 17-10

Team pages: Brown · New Haven

Brown1-017
New Haven1-310Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium, West Haven, Conn. · Crowd 7,200NEC Front Row

Brown beat New Haven 17-10.

We had New Haven favored. Brown won.

Next: Brown lost to Harvard 14-10, Fri Sep 25

Next: New Haven lost to Merrimack 17-10, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Brown a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Brown was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Favored the whole way: Brown never fell below 63%.

New Haven never had better than a 36% chance.

FinalBrown 17-10 New HavenBrown wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfBrownHigh 97%Won17-101−13Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfBrownHigh 97%Won17-101Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfBrownLowest 3%Lost10-171+13Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfBrownLowest 3%Lost10-171Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:16FumbleMurphy sacked for a 4-yd loss, fumblesBrown 79% → 66% (−13)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:16FumbleMurphy sacked for a 4-yd loss, fumblesNew Haven 21% → 34% (+13)
Brown’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Brown -10), at 69% for Brown (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Brown scored on 3 of its 14 drives; New Haven on 2 of its 12.

Brown’s drives are teal, New Haven’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Brown: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 35FumbleNew Haven: Punt, from 65 yards out to 46PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownNew Haven: Punt, from 80 yards out to 80PuntBrown: Interception, from 37 yards out to 18InterceptionNew Haven: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79PuntBrown: Punt, from 65 yards out to 59PuntNew Haven: Punt, from 98 yards out to 70PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2New Haven: Punt, from 74 yards out to 66PuntBrown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntNew Haven: Punt, from 73 yards out to 56PuntBrown: Punt, from 80 yards out to 63PuntNew Haven: Interception, from 58 yards out to 43InterceptionBrown: Field goal, from 90 yards out to 12Field goalBrown: End of half, from 65 yards out to 59End of halfQ3New Haven: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntBrown: Punt, from 66 yards out to 61PuntNew Haven: Punt, from 80 yards out to 49PuntBrown: Punt, from 82 yards out to 80PuntNew Haven: Field goal, from 49 yards out to 8Field goalBrown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntQ4New Haven: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Interception, from 75 yards out to 30InterceptionNew Haven: Punt, from 90 yards out to 63PuntBrown: End of game, from 76 yards out to 18End of game

From New Haven’s side

New Haven’s best moment: Murphy sacked for a 4-yd loss, fumbles (Q1 13:16). It lifted New Haven’s win chance by 13 points.

Box score

Brown 17, New Haven 10

New Haven covered +10 by 3. The total, 27, stayed under 50.5.

Brown leaders

  • Passing James Murphy 26 of 38, 343 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Matt Childs 14 for 53 yds, 2 TD; Eli Jones 7 for 45 yds
  • Receiving Matt Childs 3 for 95 yds; Trevor Foley 5 for 50 yds

New Haven leaders

  • Passing A.J. Duffy 27 of 47, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Zaon Laney 13 for 37 yds; Shaun Jackson 5 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Dominic Grguric 6 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Jonathan Lawson 7 for 48 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Brown · 5-5

Rated 227th in our preseason ratings.

W 35-28 vs Dartmouth #194 of 667

won by 7 as an 8-point underdog

W 32-29 @ Columbia #239 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 22-34 vs Yale #176 of 667

lost by 12 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 21-28 @ Pennsylvania #214 of 667

lost by 7 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 24-30 @ Cornell #231 of 667

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 21-40 vs Princeton #213 of 667

lost by 19 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 29-19 @ Bryant #240 of 667

won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 28-21 vs Rhode Island #142 of 667

won by 7 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 7-41 @ Harvard #195 of 667

lost by 34 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 46-0 vs Georgetown #241 of 667

won by 46 as a 3.5-point underdog

Last three games

New Haven · 1-2

Rated 251st in our preseason ratings, 255th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-57 @ South Dakota State #100 of 668

lost by 43 as a 42.5-point underdog

New Haven lost 14-57 at South Dakota State. Chance to win started at under 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 3-21 vs Stonehill #248 of 668

lost by 18 as a 6.5-point favorite

New Haven lost 3-21 vs Stonehill. Chance to win started at 80%, low under 1%, high 81%.

W 22-21 vs Marist #237 of 668

won by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite

New Haven won 22-21 vs Marist. Chance to win started at 66%, low 19%, high 92%.

Power rating by week

Brown is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-10.2-11.4-12.5Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2New HavenBrown

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on New Haven’s chances here.

50-50Model · 40%Line · 21%BrownNew Haven

Brown favored by 10 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Brown by 10, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Brown.

opened +9.5now +10

Spread: +9.5 → +10

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next