The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Harvard 24%, Princeton 49%, Brown 53%
Win out 6% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Yale's chance to win each game left, from our model: Brown 53%, Princeton 49%, Harvard 24%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Dante Reno 1,527 · Rushing Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 921 · Receiving Jaxton Santiago 638 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Holy Cross | W 38-28 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Reno 454 · Rush Kemeni 54 · Rec Santiago 234 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Cornell | L 25-38 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Hewitt 244 · Rush Kemeni 56 · Rec Santiago 58 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Merrimack | W 41-24 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Reno 298 · Rush Kemeni 132 · Rec Anderson 116 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Dartmouth | W 28-7 | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Reno 325 · Rush Kemeni 174 · Rec Santiago 147 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Rhode Island | L 23-41 | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Reno 105 · Rush Kemeni 243 · Rec Santiago 45 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | @Pennsylvania | L 21-24 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Reno 211 · Rush Kemeni 107 · Rec Anderson 133 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Columbia | W 26-8 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Reno 134 · Rush Kemeni 155 · Rec Anderson 56 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Brown | 12 pm ET53% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Princeton | 12 pm ET49% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Harvard (N) | 3:30 pm ET · ESPNU24% to win |
Win chances are our model for Yale, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Columbia | W 26-8 | — | — | — | +0.055 | 29.3% | 1.51 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 23 | @Pennsylvania | L 21-24 | — | — | — | −0.010 | 43.8% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Rhode Island | L 23-41 | — | — | — | −0.053 | 37.4% | 1.18 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Dartmouth | W 28-7 | — | — | — | +0.150 | 52.6% | 1.04 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | Merrimack | W 41-24 | — | — | — | +0.078 | 38.3% | 1.49 | |
| Sep 26 | @Cornell | L 25-38 | — | — | — | −0.004 | 43.6% | 1.09 | |
| Sep 19 | @Holy Cross | W 38-28 | — | — | — | +0.232 | 39.7% | 1.71 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (7 games) | — | — | +0.064 | 40.7% | 1.30 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Yale · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 18%; 5 wins 44%; 6 wins 32%; 7 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-3
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Ivy teams the same season
Yale football carries the weight and pride of inventing American football itself—a legacy that transcends wins and losses.
Yale football is American football—literally. Walter Camp, a Yale player and coach, invented the sport as we know it. The Bulldogs carry that origin story with historic pride, balancing Ivy League tradition with a recent breakthrough into national playoff competition.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Yale · 2026