Pennsylvania upsets Yale 24-21

Team pages: Yale · Pennsylvania

Yale3-321
Pennsylvania3-324Final
Fri, Oct 23 · Franklin Field, Philadelphia, Pa. · Crowd 5,531ESPNU

Pennsylvania beat Yale 24-21 as a 6.5-point underdog.

We had Yale favored. Pennsylvania won.

Next: Yale at Columbia, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

Next: Pennsylvania at Brown, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Piper 49-yd field goal no good (Q4, 0:08). Pennsylvania went from 70% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Pennsylvania a 44% chance, and the closing betting line (Pennsylvania was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.

TargetingQ4 9:03
FinalPennsylvania 24-21 YalePennsylvania wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfPennsylvaniaYaleLowest 11%Won24-2112−21+30ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfPennsylvaniaYaleLowest 11%Won24-2112ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfYalePennsylvaniaHigh 89%Lost21-2412+21ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfYalePennsylvaniaHigh 89%Lost21-2412ScoresTargeting

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 6:47PenaltyDjeumeni Kemeni 34-yd TD run; unsportsmanlike conduct on Yale, ties it 14-14Pennsylvania 59% → 38% (−21)
  2. 2Q4 0:08Piper 49-yd field goal no goodPennsylvania 70% → 100% (+30)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 6:47PenaltyDjeumeni Kemeni 34-yd TD run; unsportsmanlike conduct on Yale, ties it 14-14Yale 41% → 62% (+21)
  2. 2Q4 0:08Piper 49-yd field goal no goodYale 30% → 0% (−30)
Pennsylvania’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Yale -6.5), at 41% for Pennsylvania (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Pennsylvania scored on 4 of its 15 drives; Yale on 3 of its 14.

Pennsylvania’s drives are teal, Yale’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Pennsylvania: Punt, from 83 yards out to 76PuntYale: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownPennsylvania: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Turned over on downs, from 88 yards out to 80DownsPennsylvania: Touchdown, from 20 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 80 yards out to 64PuntPennsylvania: Turned over on downs, from 72 yards out to 36DownsQ2Yale: Interception, from 64 yards out to 32InterceptionPennsylvania: Punt, from 98 yards out to 93PuntYale: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownPennsylvania: Punt, from 83 yards out to 75PuntYale: Punt, from 88 yards out to 81PuntPennsylvania: Punt, from 62 yards out to 58PuntYale: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownPennsylvania: End of half, from 75 yards out to 66End of halfQ3Yale: Punt, from 81 yards out to 52PuntPennsylvania: Punt, from 80 yards out to 71PuntYale: Interception, from 36 yards out to 6InterceptionPennsylvania: Punt, from 80 yards out to 46PuntYale: Interception, from 90 yards out to 71InterceptionPennsylvania: Field goal, from 43 yards out to 25Field goalQ4Yale: Punt, from 93 yards out to 86PuntPennsylvania: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntPennsylvania: Punt, from 67 yards out to 55PuntYale: Interception, from 77 yards out to 52InterceptionPennsylvania: Punt, from 80 yards out to 82PuntYale: Missed field goal, from 53 yards out to 31Missed FGPennsylvania: Uncategorized, from 69 yards out to 86Uncategorized

From Yale’s side

Yale’s best moment: Djeumeni Kemeni 34-yd TD run; unsportsmanlike conduct on Yale, ties it 14-14 (Q2 6:47). It lifted Yale’s win chance by 21 points.

The winner fell to 11%.

Box score

Pennsylvania 24, Yale 21

Pennsylvania covered +6.5 by 9.5. The total, 45, stayed under 49.5.

Yale leaders

  • Passing Dante Reno 21 of 34, 211 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 20 for 107 yds, 1 TD; Dante Reno 5 for 18 yds
  • Receiving Lucius Anderson 10 for 133 yds, 2 TD; Jaxton Santiago 5 for 38 yds

Pennsylvania leaders

  • Passing Miles Teodecki 16 of 33, 156 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Sean Williams Jr. 14 for 82 yds, 1 TD; Miles Teodecki 10 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Isaac Lee 4 for 63 yds; Jack Donnelly 4 for 52 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Yale · 3-2

Rated 211th in our preseason ratings, 187th now, up 24 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 23-41 vs Rhode Island No. 140 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 12.5-point favorite

Yale lost 23-41 vs Rhode Island. Chance to win started at 86%, low under 1%, high 86%.

W 28-7 vs Dartmouth No. 228 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 7-point favorite

Yale won 28-7 vs Dartmouth. Chance to win started at 80%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

W 41-24 vs Merrimack No. 229 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 14-point favorite

Yale won 41-24 vs Merrimack. Chance to win started at 88%, low 32%, high better than 99%.

L 25-38 @ Cornell No. 236 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 14-point favorite

Yale lost 25-38 at Cornell. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 83%.

W 38-28 @ Holy Cross No. 238 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 21-point favorite

Yale won 38-28 at Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 91%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Pennsylvania · 2-3

Rated 247th in our preseason ratings, 221st now, up 26 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-28 vs Columbia No. 214 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Pennsylvania lost 27-28 vs Columbia. Chance to win started at 75%, low under 1%, high 99%.

W 24-20 vs Howard No. 225 of 668 teams

won by 4 as an 11.5-point favorite

L 10-14 @ Dartmouth No. 227 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as an 8.5-point underdog

Pennsylvania lost 10-14 at Dartmouth. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 45%.

L 7-20 vs Lehigh No. 137 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 12.5-point underdog

Pennsylvania lost 7-20 vs Lehigh. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 31%.

W 20-7 @ Bucknell No. 235 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 3.5-point favorite

Pennsylvania won 20-7 at Bucknell. Chance to win started at 52%, low 46%, high 99%.

Week by week

Pennsylvania

Wk 3: W 20-7 at Bucknell▲13BucknellWk 4: L 7-20 vs Lehigh▼13LehighWk 5: L 10-14 at Dartmouth▼4DartmouthWk 6: W 24-20 vs Howard▲4HowardWk 7: L 27-28 vs Columbia▼1Columbia
  • Wk 3Wat Bucknell20-7
  • Wk 4Lvs Lehigh7-20
  • Wk 5Lat Dartmouth10-14
  • Wk 6Wvs Howard24-20
  • Wk 7Lvs Columbia27-28

Yale

Wk 3: W 38-28 at Holy Cross▲10Holy Cro…Wk 4: L 25-38 at Cornell▼13CornellWk 5: W 41-24 vs Merrimack▲17MerrimackWk 6: W 28-7 vs Dartmouth▲21DartmouthWk 7: L 23-41 vs Rhode Island▼18Rhode Is…
  • Wk 3Wat Holy Cross38-28
  • Wk 4Lat Cornell25-38
  • Wk 5Wvs Merrimack41-24
  • Wk 6Wvs Dartmouth28-7
  • Wk 7Lvs Rhode Island23-41

Power rating by week

Yale is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-10-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7PennsylvaniaYale

The series

Yale leads the series 45-24-1

70 meetings since 1879 · Yale has won the last 2

Pennsylvania wonYale won1879: Yale by 31880: Yale by 81885: Yale by 481886: Yale by 751887: Yale by 501888: Yale by 341888: Yale by 541889: Yale by 101890: Yale by 601891: Yale by 481892: Yale by 281893: Yale by 81925: Pennsylvania by 31934: Yale by 81935: Yale by 111936: Yale by 71937: Yale by 201938: Pennsylvania by 211939: Pennsylvania by 61940: Pennsylvania by 431941: Pennsylvania by 151942: Pennsylvania by 291943: Pennsylvania by 341956: Yale by 331957: Pennsylvania by 131958: Pennsylvania by 241959: Pennsylvania by 161960: Yale by 251961: Yale by 231962: Pennsylvania by 31963: Yale by 211964: Yale by 121965: Yale by 21966: Yale by 31967: Yale by 221968: Yale by 171969: Yale by 181970: Yale by 101971: Yale by 101972: Pennsylvania by 181973: Yale by 31974: Yale by 251975: Yale by 101976: Yale by 141977: Yale by 61978: tie1979: Yale by 181980: Yale by 81981: Yale by 212003: Pennsylvania by 32004: Pennsylvania by 102005: Pennsylvania by 172007: Yale by 62008: Pennsylvania by 22009: Pennsylvania by 92010: Pennsylvania by 72011: Pennsylvania by 122012: Yale by 142013: Pennsylvania by 112014: Yale by 222015: Pennsylvania by 142016: Pennsylvania by 352017: Yale by 52018: Yale by 132019: Yale by 52021: Yale by 142022: Pennsylvania by 72023: Pennsylvania by 102024: Yale by 212025: Yale by 2218792025
  • 2025Yale 35-13
  • 2024Yale 31-10
  • 2023Pennsylvania 27-17
  • 2022Pennsylvania 20-13
  • 2021Yale 42-28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Pennsylvania’s chances here.

50-50Model · 44%Line · 30%YalePennsylvania

Yale favored by 6.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Yale by 6.5, on the usual path until 0:08 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 380 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Yale.

opened +4.5now +6.5

Spread: +4.5 → +6.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.