The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Yale 47%, Dartmouth 50%
Win out 20% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins
Brown's chance to win each game left, from our model: Yale 47%, Columbia 87%, Dartmouth 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing James Murphy 1,762 · Rushing Matt Childs 426 · Receiving Matt Childs 447 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sep 19 | @New Haven | W 17-10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Murphy 343 · Rush Childs 53 · Rec Childs 95 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | Harvard | L 10-14 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Murphy 121 · Rush Childs 57 · Rec Childs 59 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Rhode Island | L 10-13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Murphy 271 · Rush Childs 37 · Rec Garza-Pender 66 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Bryant | W 28-13 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Murphy 198 · Rush Childs 103 · Rec Hill 56 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Princeton | L 10-16 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Murphy 274 · Rush Childs 29 · Rec Childs 82 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Cornell | W 38-31 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Murphy 325 · Rush Childs 72 · Rec Childs 85 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Pennsylvania | W 36-17 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Murphy 230 · Rush Childs 75 · Rec Garza-Pender 48 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Yale | 12 pm ET47% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Columbia | 12 pm ET87% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Dartmouth | 1 pm ET50% to win |
Win chances are our model for Brown, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Pennsylvania | W 36-17 | — | — | — | +0.181 | 39.5% | 1.44 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | Cornell | W 38-31 | — | — | — | +0.035 | 37.1% | 1.34 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Princeton | L 10-16 | — | — | — | +0.009 | 39.5% | 1.12 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Bryant | W 28-13 | — | — | — | +0.225 | 49.3% | 1.10 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Rhode Island | L 10-13 | — | — | — | −0.041 | 37.9% | 1.10 | One-score loss |
| Sep 25 | Harvard | L 10-14 | — | — | — | −0.246 | 34.0% | 1.08 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @New Haven | W 17-10 | — | — | — | +0.061 | 37.8% | 1.15 | One-score win |
| Season average (7 games) | — | — | +0.032 | 39.3% | 1.19 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Brown · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 3%; 5 wins 30%; 6 wins 47%; 7 wins 20%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-3
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Ivy teams the same season
A founding-era program that helped invent the sport's biggest names -- Heisman, Pollard, Paterno -- now living as a small, non-scholarship Ivy team that has spent more recent seasons at the bottom of the league than at the top.
Brown is 4-3 and plays at Yale next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Brown · 2026