Brown beats Cornell 38-31 in overtime

Team pages: Cornell · Brown

Cornell3-331
Brown3-338Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Brown Stadium, Providence, R.I. · Crowd 5,605ESPN+

Brown beat Cornell 38-31 in overtime after its win chance fell to 4%.

Winners have been down to 4% or less in about 1 of every 30 games since 2018.

We had Brown favored. It won.

Next: Cornell at Princeton, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

Next: Brown vs Pennsylvania, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Murphy 9-yd TD pass to Childs, ties it 31-31 (Q4, 0:36). Brown went from 15% to 64% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Brown a 53% chance, and the closing betting line (Brown was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.

21 unansweredCornell · Q2 7:33
FinalBrown 38-31 CornellBrown wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT18% at halfBrownCornellLowest 4%Won38-3112+49+18Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT18% at halfBrownCornellLowest 4%Won38-3112Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT82% at halfCornellBrownHigh 96%Lost31-3812−49Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT82% at halfCornellBrownHigh 96%Lost31-3812Scores21 unanswered

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:364th and 9Murphy 9-yd TD pass to Childs, ties it 31-31Brown 15% → 64% (+49)
  2. 2OT4th and 8Bass-Sulpizio 5-yd pass to McAuliffe, turnover on downsBrown 82% → 100% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:364th and 9Murphy 9-yd TD pass to Childs, ties it 31-31Cornell 85% → 36% (−49)
  2. 2OT4th and 8Bass-Sulpizio 5-yd pass to McAuliffe, turnover on downsCornell 18% → 0% (−18)
Brown’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Cornell -2.5), at 51% for Brown (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Brown scored on 6 of its 16 drives; Cornell on 5 of its 16.

Brown’s drives are teal, Cornell’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Brown: Punt, from 76 yards out to 71PuntCornell: Turned over on downs, from 74 yards out to 30DownsBrown: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownCornell: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Brown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 97PuntCornell: Missed field goal, from 44 yards out to 17Missed FGBrown: Interception, from 80 yards out to 65InterceptionCornell: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 66FumbleCornell: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45PuntCornell: Punt, from 74 yards out to 67PuntBrown: Field goal, from 73 yards out to 19Field goalCornell: End of half, from 79 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Cornell: Punt, from 70 yards out to 61PuntBrown: Punt, from 85 yards out to 87PuntCornell: Field goal, from 40 yards out to 10Field goalBrown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntCornell: Interception, from 66 yards out to 66InterceptionBrown: Touchdown, from 18 yards out to 0TouchdownCornell: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntCornell: Interception, from 61 yards out to 37InterceptionBrown: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Cornell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 78PuntBrown: Interception, from 57 yards out to 33InterceptionCornell: Punt, from 91 yards out to 81PuntBrown: Fumble, from 54 yards out to 43FumbleCornell: Punt, from 57 yards out to 50PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownOTBrown: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownCornell: Turned over on downs, from 25 yards out to 18Downs

From Cornell’s side

Cornell’s best moment: Bass-Sulpizio 12-yd TD run, Cornell goes ahead 14-7 (Q2 7:33). It lifted Cornell’s win chance by 14 points.

The winner fell to 4%.

Box score

Brown 38, Cornell 31

Brown covered +2.5 by 9.5. The total, 69, went over 49.5.

Cornell leaders

  • Passing Garrett Bass-Sulpizio 25 of 42, 277 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Brendan Lee 5 for 47 yds; Josiah Allen 5 for 34 yds
  • Receiving Xavier Bowman 8 for 69 yds; Jaxon Long 5 for 58 yds

Brown leaders

  • Passing James Murphy 31 of 50, 325 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Matt Childs 17 for 72 yds, 2 TD; Eli Jones 4 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Matt Childs 10 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Pearson Hill 5 for 80 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Cornell · 3-2

Rated 241st in our preseason ratings, 197th now, up 44 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Lehigh as an 11.5-point underdog.

W 48-38 vs Lehigh No. 129 of 668 teams

won by 10 as an 11.5-point underdog

Cornell won 48-38 vs Lehigh. Chance to win started at 34%, low 26%, high better than 99%.

L 29-41 vs Harvard No. 167 of 668 teams

lost by 12 as a 7-point underdog

Cornell lost 29-41 vs Harvard. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 68%.

W 35-14 @ Georgetown No. 253 of 668 teams

won by 21 as an 8.5-point favorite

Cornell won 35-14 at Georgetown. Chance to win started at 73%, low 63%, high better than 99%.

W 38-25 vs Yale No. 208 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 14-point underdog

Cornell won 38-25 vs Yale. Chance to win started at 22%, low 17%, high better than 99%.

L 7-20 @ Colgate No. 167 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 12.5-point underdog

Cornell lost 7-20 at Colgate. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 16%.

Last three games

Brown · 2-3

Rated 227th in our preseason ratings, 189th now, up 38 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-16 @ Princeton No. 164 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 4-point underdog

Brown lost 10-16 at Princeton. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 28-13 vs Bryant No. 189 of 668 teams

won by 15 as a 5.5-point favorite

Brown won 28-13 vs Bryant. Chance to win started at 73%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

L 10-13 @ Rhode Island No. 144 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-13 at Rhode Island. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 72%.

L 10-14 vs Harvard No. 180 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 13.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-14 vs Harvard. Chance to win started at 23%, low 3%, high 27%.

W 17-10 @ New Haven No. 256 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 10-point favorite

Brown won 17-10 at New Haven. Chance to win started at 69%, low 64%, high 97%.

Week by week

Brown

Wk 3: W 17-10 at New Haven▲7New HavenWk 4: L 10-14 vs Harvard▼4HarvardWk 5: L 10-13 at Rhode Island▼3Rhode Is…Wk 6: W 28-13 vs Bryant▲15BryantWk 7: L 10-16 at Princeton▼6Princeton
  • Wk 3Wat New Haven17-10
  • Wk 4Lvs Harvard10-14
  • Wk 5Lat Rhode Island10-13
  • Wk 6Wvs Bryant28-13
  • Wk 7Lat Princeton10-16

Cornell

Wk 3: L 7-20 at Colgate▼13ColgateWk 4: W 38-25 vs Yale▲13YaleWk 5: W 35-14 at Georgetown▲21Georgeto…Wk 6: L 29-41 vs Harvard▼12HarvardWk 7: W 48-38 vs Lehigh▲10Lehigh
  • Wk 3Lat Colgate7-20
  • Wk 4Wvs Yale38-25
  • Wk 5Wat Georgetown35-14
  • Wk 6Lvs Harvard29-41
  • Wk 7Wvs Lehigh48-38

Power rating by week

Brown is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-8-10-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7BrownCornell

The series

Brown leads the series 26-23-1

50 meetings since 1895 · Cornell won the last meeting

Brown wonCornell won1895: Cornell by 21914: Cornell by 211955: Cornell by 131956: Brown by 71957: Cornell by 71958: Brown by 41959: Cornell by 191960: Brown by 11961: Cornell by 251962: Cornell by 21963: Cornell by 31964: Brown by 31965: Cornell by 201966: Cornell by 91967: tie1968: Cornell by 311969: Cornell by 71970: Cornell by 141971: Cornell by 141972: Cornell by 201973: Brown by 101974: Brown by 81975: Brown by 221976: Brown by 161977: Brown by 181978: Brown by 81979: Brown by 211980: Brown by 71981: Cornell by 52003: Brown by 142004: Brown by 42005: Brown by 142007: Cornell by 72008: Brown by 202009: Brown by 202010: Brown by 132011: Brown by 112012: Brown by 72013: Brown by 72014: Brown by 262015: Brown by 202016: Brown by 72017: Cornell by 272018: Cornell by 182019: Cornell by 22021: Brown by 42022: Cornell by 32023: Cornell by 222024: Brown by 22025: Cornell by 618952025
  • 2025Cornell 30-24
  • 2024Brown 23-21
  • 2023Cornell 36-14
  • 2022Cornell 24-21
  • 2021Brown 49-45

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Brown’s chances here.

50-50Model · 53%Line · 42%CornellBrown

Cornell favored by 2.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Cornell by 2.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 287 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Cornell.

opened +1.5now +2.5

The total rose 3 points.

opened 46.5now 49.5

Spread: +1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 46.5 → 49.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.