UCF

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Tayven Jackson Named North Texas Starting QB for Week 1 Game at Indianaour readThe South Florida rivalry

Big 12 · Scott Frost, year 2 (6-8) · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 44,206 · 43,127 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#89 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #47 (+5.9) · FPI #48
The marketUCF by 18.5vs Georgia State · our model 69% UCF · a number, not a pick

LastL 7–12 at Pittsburgh · Sat Sep 12 · Alonza Barnett 186 pass yds, 1 TD, 13 rush yds

Nextvs Georgia State · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF by 18.5 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
40.0
Pts allowed/game
9.0
Total yards/gm#88 / 138 · 37th pct
383.0
Rush yards/gm#57 / 138 · 59th pct
190.0
Pass yards/gm#99 / 138 · 29th pct
193.0
Yards allowed/gm#27 / 138 · 81st pct
248.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#56 / 138 · 60th pct
105.0
SacksT-#60 / 138 · 50th pct
4
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#64 / 138 · 53rd pct
42.9%
All 86 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
766383.0/gm6.78/play#88 / 138 · 37th pct#51 / 69 · 27th pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
496248.0/gm3.76/play#27 / 138 · 81st pct#24 / 69 · 66th pct#4 / 16 · 78th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
380190.0/gm3.36/play#57 / 138 · 59th pct#31 / 69 · 56th pct#8 / 16 · 53rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
210105.0/gm1.59/play#56 / 138 · 60th pct#42 / 69 · 40th pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6030.0/gmT-#121 / 138 · 12th pctT-#62 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
8341.5/gmT-#116 / 138 · 16th pctT-#65 / 69 · 5th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
73.5/gmT-#17 / 138 · 85th pctT-#12 / 69 · 79th pctT-#4 / 16 · 72nd pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 69 · 64th pctT-#5 / 16 · 66th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
386193.0/gm3.42/play#99 / 138 · 29th pct#59 / 69 · 15th pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
286143.0/gm2.17/playT-#28 / 138 · 80th pctT-#23 / 69 · 67th pct#3 / 16 · 84th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5326.5/gmT-#88 / 138 · 36th pctT-#52 / 69 · 25th pct#11 / 16 · 34th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4924.5/gmT-#25 / 138 · 80th pctT-#15 / 69 · 77th pctT-#2 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3517.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 41st pctT-#48 / 69 · 28th pctT-#11 / 16 · 31st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 82nd pctT-#15 / 69 · 77th pct#3 / 16 · 84th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 69 · 30th pctT-#11 / 16 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 16 · 66th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
142.1142.1#61 / 115 · 47th pct#41 / 59 · 31st pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#6 / 13 · 62nd pct
Opp
108.8108.8#26 / 91 · 72nd pct#19 / 41 · 55th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#7 / 16 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 69 · 64th pctT-#3 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
42.0/gmT-#60 / 138 · 50th pctT-#36 / 69 · 40th pctT-#11 / 16 · 22nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 69 · 30th pctT-#11 / 16 · 22nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
147.0/gmT-#29 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 69 · 68th pctT-#6 / 16 · 62nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 47th pctT-#42 / 69 · 37th pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3517.5/gmT-#109 / 138 · 20th pctT-#62 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2412.0/gmT-#16 / 138 · 88th pctT-#15 / 69 · 78th pctT-#2 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 69 · 24th pctT-#13 / 16 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#40 / 138 · 67th pctT-#27 / 69 · 56th pct#7 / 16 · 59th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2110.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 15th pctT-#57 / 69 · 15th pctT-#14 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3417.0/gmT-#118 / 138 · 14th pctT-#65 / 69 · 6th pctT-#15 / 16 · 6th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
00.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 9th pctT-#52 / 69 · 13th pctT-#13 / 16 · 12th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#10 / 16 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 69 · 43rd pctT-#8 / 16 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 69 · 49th pctT-#7 / 16 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
51:5325:56/gm#126 / 138 · 9th pct#66 / 69 · 5th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
68:0734:04/gm#117 / 138 · 16th pct#66 / 69 · 5th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.04 EPA/play14231 / 4963.33447.021131.64941.0——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.35 EPA/play6266310.5035
-0.14 EPA/play5255410.8026

2026 stat leaders · UCF

through 2 games

Lewis Carter leads UCF with 15 tackles through 2 games.

1. Lewis Carter LB 15 tackles
2. Tackett Curtis LB 13 tackles
3. Alonza Barnett QB 344 passing yards
4. Duke Watson RB 120 rushing yards
5. Isaiah Nixon EDGE 8 tackles
How They Play · 2025

UCF fields a limited explosive, big-play offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
39th pct EPA/play
Tempo
86th pct explosiveness
Defense
61st pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
94th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · UCF · 2025

UCF reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 7%) and explosive plays (top 15%); the crux lives in success rate, where UCF sits at the 26th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.15
39th
Success Rate +0.40
26th
Explosive Plays +1.35
86th
Rushing EPA +0.11
48th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.11
61st
Success Rate Allowed +0.42
42nd
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.14
94th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.14
81st

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.20
29th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.13
32nd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · UCF · 2018–present · FBS opponents

UCF is worth +6.1 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 82nd percentile of 133 programs

73% at home, 44% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (33–12 home, 19–24 away). Interval ±4.0.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, UCF has beaten the number by +5.3 more at home than away over 74 games — inside the ±7.2 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

FBC Mortgage Stadium seats 44,206 and has averaged 97% full (42,925, 27 games reported). Visitors face the 8th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 766 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 27% of the 2026 roster (28 of 102 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 53 home games since 2018.

Home33–12Away19–24Edge+6.1 ±4.0Visitor trip766 mi

More in this tab

Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How UCF’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Steve Cooper (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 47% → 2026: 54% · 7-pt range · #121 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 31% → 2026: 27% · 3-pt range · #176 of 182 · less than most
Defense: Alex Grinch (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 47% → 2026: 54% · 7-pt range · #147 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 31% → 2026: 27% · 3-pt range · #195 of 200 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank UCF

CFB Zeitgeist

#89

-1.6

SP+

#47

+5.9

FPI

#48

+4.7

Elo

#72

1468

The national models put UCF between 47th and 72nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 89th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · UCF

Reads like

AkronMid-AmericanSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateSun BeltSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArmyAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

79°F average kickoff temp; 24% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 80 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site