Next game: at Kansas
UCF’s best edge on Kansas is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
UCF offense against Kansas defense
Kansas offense against UCF defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.20 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 122 / 180 | 67.8 | 1181 | 6.6 | 11 #57 FBS | 4 | 138.6 | 42 | 56.0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → Game managerConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. Starter — 180 pass attempts and 46 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Jenkins keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Boley is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Completion %68.2% 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt7.0 bottom 24th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keyone Jenkins's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | 14 | 3 | 39 / 65 | 60 | 477 | 7.3 | 2 | 1 | 128.7 | 42 | 29.9 | 6.1 | 8.5 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.13 EPA/play | 26 | 8 | 92 | 597 #51 FBS | 6.5 | 3 | 64 | 17.2 | 18.4 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 92 carries and 8 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Watson hits the crease and outruns the angle. Mack is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry6.8 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception1.9 bottom 2th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Duke Watson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.24 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 42 | 185 | 4.4 | 4 | 35 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 42 carries and 4 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Chambers does a little of everything without one standout trait. Mack is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry5.2 bottom 45th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate9.5% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Landen Chambers's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.10 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 32 | 162 | 5.1 | 2 | 27 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.46 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 37 | 428 | 11.6 | 3 | 67 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 37 catches and 1 carry in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Derry wins underneath on volume and route precision. Harris is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume37 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception12.5 bottom 39th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshua Derry's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 22 | 282 | 12.8 | 1 | 56 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 22 catches and 3 carries in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Hornes moves the chains on third down. Harris is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception13.0 bottom 45th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate4.5% bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyren Hornes's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.32 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 23 | 262 | 11.4 | 2 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Waden Charles's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.47 EPA/play | 18 | 6 | 15 | 159 | 10.6 | 2 | 26 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 15 catches in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Caden Piening's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 6 | 6 | 13 | 147 | 11.3 | 0 | 39 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Farmer moves the chains on third down. Harris is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception13.3 bottom 48th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ric'Darious Farmer's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.16 EPA/play | — | 7 | 12 | 87 | 7.2 | 0 | 15 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception5.9 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dylan Wade's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 3 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 1 | 23 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.54 EPA/play | 7 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 | 9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 92 | 8 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.4% 71th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jeffson Lafontant's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | — | 8 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 1.5 | 3 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight355 lb 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Horace Lockett's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.5% bottom 38th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Thomas Collins's full player page | |||||||
| 93 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 54 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 97 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 24 | 8 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Tackett Curtis's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 34 | 8 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 41 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jahleel Culbreath's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 6 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — 27 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Isaiah Nixon's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 3 of 10 games this season · freshman View Lewis Carter's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 6 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 18 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Sincere Edwards's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ken Talley's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 38 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden McDonald's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 12 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Aymeric Koumba's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — 38 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jayden Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 7 | 35 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Demari Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ty Bartrum's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Antoine Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.8% 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jayden Bellamy's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 4 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Braeden Marshall's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Caleb Flagg's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 49 | 8 | 33 | 1521 | 46.1 | 59 | 7 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.10 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 7 | 209 | 29.9 | 0 | 57 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerfielder | 7 | 8 | 9 | 122 | 13.6 | 0 | 55 |
| 86 | 1 | 3 | 84 | 28 | 0 | 46 |
Biggest plays from UCF’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in UCF’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 4:58 · UCF down 3, takes the leadKeyone Jenkins finds Caden Piening for a 19-yard touchdownTCU at UCF, week 4Q2, 4:58 · UCF 14, TCU 10UCF took the lead in the second quarterUCF took the lead in the second quarterK.Jenkins pass complete short middle to C.Piening caught at TCU04, for 19 yards to the TCU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 10:32 · Oklahoma State up 6Oklahoma State scores a touchdownUCF at Oklahoma State, week 6Q4, 10:32 · Oklahoma State 35, UCF 21Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownK.Jenkins rush left for 11 yards loss to the UCF28 fumbled by K.Jenkins at UCF34 recovered by OSU E.Jackson at UCF28 E.Jackson return 28 yards to the UCF00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful penalty D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful penalty UCF Offside declined▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 14:42 · UCF down 4, takes the leadDuke Watson runs 63 yards for a touchdownGeorgia State at UCF, week 3Q3, 14:42 · UCF 27, Georgia State 24Duke Watson reaches 1,000 career rushing yardsDuke Watson reaches 1,000 career rushing yardsD.Watson rush left for 63 yards gain to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 2:51 · UCF down 13Alonza Barnett finds Waden Charles for a 19-yard touchdownUCF at Pittsburgh, week 2Q4, 2:51 · UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12UCF cut the deficit to 5 in the fourth quarterUCF cut the deficit to 5 in the fourth quarterWaden Charles 19 yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 6:01 · UCF up 10Keyone Jenkins runs 5 yards for a touchdownUCF at Houston, week 5Q3, 6:01 · UCF 17, Houston 0▲15%UCF’s chance to win, 72% to 87%▲15%UCF’s chance to win, 72% to 87%K.Jenkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q3, 1:11 · Houston down 10Conner Weigman runs 1 yard for a touchdownUCF at Houston, week 5Q3, 1:11 · Houston 14, UCF 17Houston cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterHouston cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterNo Huddle C.Weigman rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
UCF lost at Houston after being 95% to win; the closest win was against BYU, down to 21%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave UCF during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · UCF
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · UCFTackett Curtis leads UCF with 48 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+21 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
UCF fields a limited offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
UCF reads strongest in field position (O) (top 15%) and rushing EPA allowed (top 22%); the crux lives in passing EPA allowed, where UCF sits at the 30th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
UCF is worth +5.9 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 81st percentile of 133 programs
73% at home, 42% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (36-13 home, 19-26 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, UCF has beaten the number by +3.5 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
FBC Mortgage Stadium seats 44,206 and has averaged 98% full (43,155, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 7th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 821 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 27% of the 2026 roster (28 of 102 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 57 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogDJ Black produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- UnderdogWaden Charles produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeDuane Thomas Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Garbage timeMyles Montgomery does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Duke Watson and Landen Chambers split the carries (86/128 vs 42/128) -- but Landen Chambers leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
See it develop week by week
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Joshua Derry (WR) and Caden Piening (TE) split the targets (50/72 vs 22/72) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Caden Piening produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How UCF actually scores
19th percentile quality, 82nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
UCF’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 9th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 9th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does UCF hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
29th percentile success on standard downs, 45th on passing downs — a 16-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
UCF by half
1st-half offense ranks 56th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 3rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of UCF’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.09; 33rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.55 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How UCF’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), UCF’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 219-play sample) — mid-pack, 92 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), UCF’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 206-play sample) — mid-pack, 23 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
62% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
5 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
20% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
7 interceptions of 35 disrupted passes (28 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
50 penalties committed, 64 drawn on opponents — netting a 109-yard field-position edge.
385 penalty yards committed vs. 494 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · UCF
Most similar programs · UCFReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 72°, between 65° and 78° in about 7 in 10 games (32 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 67°, and 8 in 10 ran between 53° and 81° (49 of 53 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.