The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 80%
Win out 71% · expect 2.7 of 3 more wins
Dayton's chance to win each game left, from our model: Valparaiso 82%, Davidson 99%, Presbyterian 87%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Bryce Schondelmyer 1,701 · Rushing Luke Hansen 510 · Receiving Michael Mussari 583 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Fairmont State | W 43-20 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Schondelmyer 181 · Rush Spencer 58 · Rec Weatherly 71 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Thomas More | W 30-7 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Schondelmyer 211 · Rush Hackett 65 · Rec Mussari 90 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 17-14 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Schondelmyer 146 · Rush Hansen 110 · Rec Mussari 87 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Drake | L 22-30 | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Schondelmyer 187 · Rush Hansen 36 · Rec Mussari 70 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Morehead State | W 56-28 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Schondelmyer 214 · Rush Hackett 45 · Rec Mussari 79 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Butler | W 19-9 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Schondelmyer 297 · Rush Hansen 70 · Rec Thulin 83 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | San Diego | W 37-32 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Schondelmyer 259 · Rush Hackett 71 · Rec Mussari 84 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Stetson | W 44-34 | 7-1 | 4-1 | Pass Schondelmyer 206 · Rush Hansen 158 · Rec Weatherly 79 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Valparaiso | 12 pm ET82% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Davidson | 12 pm ET99% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Presbyterian | 1 pm ET87% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Dayton, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Stetson | W 44-34 | — | — | — | +0.354 | 52.4% | 1.30 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 24 | San Diego | W 37-32 | — | — | — | +0.262 | 44.8% | 1.39 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | @Butler | W 19-9 | — | — | — | −0.009 | 40.5% | 1.24 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | Morehead State | W 56-28 | — | — | — | +0.380 | 54.7% | 1.21 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Drake | L 22-30 | — | — | — | −0.046 | 36.8% | 1.28 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 17-14 | — | — | — | −0.099 | 31.2% | 1.24 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Thomas More | W 30-7 | — | — | — | +0.145 | 45.5% | 1.25 | |
| Aug 29 | Fairmont State | W 43-20 | — | — | — | +0.170 | 38.9% | 1.31 | |
| Season average (8 games) | — | — | +0.145 | 43.1% | 1.28 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last four.
Range of outcomes · Dayton · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 3%; 9 wins 26%; 10 wins 71%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Dayton is 7-1 and hosts Valparaiso next.
Dayton is 7-1 and hosts Valparaiso next.
Range of outcomes · Dayton · 2026