CFB Zeitgeist
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Dayton

7-4 2025 final

Dayton is the Ohio program that won two NCAA Division III national championships and built a 17-year winning streak — an FCS institution for 30 years, now chasing the form that made it a dynasty.

The Flyers keep the faith.

Record
7-4
win% .636
FCS Top 25
Conf Standing
Playoff Path
Building résumé
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-win — basking
The Long Wait·Offseason

Dayton is the Ohio program that won two NCAA Division III national championships and built a 17-year winning streak — an FCS institution for 30 years, now chasing the form that made it a dynasty.

Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs

Dayton went 7–4 (5–3 PFL) in 2025 under Trevor Andrews in his third year — a respectable record that reflects the program's baseline but not the dominance fans expect. Andrews inherited a program measured against 12 conference tit…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

The Pulse on Dayton

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
The Flyers keep the faith.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Dayton" — Dayton fanbase · recurring line
43 mentions · sample growing

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Dayton

Winning record

The baseline expectation.

Conference title

The annual recruiting proof point.

Playoff bid (24-team bracket)

Conference qualifier or at-large.

Championship gameLocked

Championship weekend. Top-4 in the country.

Dayton · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling10-2Conference title + deep playoff run.

Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.

Act II

Who We Are

FCS Program Prestige · Dayton

Mid-Major Contender

FCS Playoff Contender — consistent bracket participant, regional force.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Fanbase Health Index · Dayton · medium confidence

Growing (64)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-4 (64% win rate)65
Volume — 43 effective signal-N63

Home-Field Advantage · Dayton · 2018-present

Elite

70% home win rate vs 44% on the road. margin runs +15.0 better at home.

Home19-8Away12-15
Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 7-3

Pioneer Standing · 2025

4th in the Pioneer

Dayton sits 4th of 11 in the Pioneer at 7-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.

#ProgramRecord
1Presbyterian10-2
2Drake8-4
3San Diego8-4
4Dayton7-4
5St. Thomas (MN)7-5
6Butler6-6
7Morehead State6-6
8Marist5-7
9Stetson3-9
10Davidson2-10
11Valparaiso2-10

Schedule Strength · Dayton · 2025

Soft

Average opponent win rate 39% across 11 finalized games. Few elite opponents on the slate — win quality matters for the at-large bracket.

Opp Win %0.395
Top-250
Top-100

Moment of the Year · Dayton · 2025

Won 38-0 vs Thomas More College

Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.

Decisive Margin

From the Archive — Dayton

2024: Lost 9-32 at St. Thomas (MN)

In 2024, the program lost 9-32 at St. Thomas (MN) — a stinging road result, 23 points either way.

Go Flyers.