CFB Zeitgeist Score
31
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 56th percentile.
TJ Finley
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,244 PASS YDS · 6 PASS TD · -51 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Incarnate Word
2025Georgia State
2026Incarnate Word
QB · GEORGIA STATE · SUN BELT
TJ Finley
- 3
- #2
- 6-7 | 238 lb
- Ponchatoula, LA
Heisman Heat
#1237
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2025+50%
Up 50% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3-star | 0.8826 | No. 486 recruit | HighSchool | LSU |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Georgia State -> Incarnate Word | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Tulane -> Georgia State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Texas State -> Western Kentucky | 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to LSU
Composite
0.8826
#486 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on TJ Finley
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about TJ Finley
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 7g
1,244Pass yards
6Pass TDs
7INT
Per game
177.7Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,310Pass yards
11Pass TDs
13INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,244): needs 292.7/game over remaining 6.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,244): needs 459.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 6): needs 3.2/game over remaining 6.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 6): needs 4/game over remaining 6.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 6): needs 4.8/game over remaining 6.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
TJ Finley's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Georgia State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
127 69th
ATT
201 70th
CMP%
63.2% 58th
Y/A
6.2 35th
Passing Production
YDS
1,244 65th
TD
6 66th
INT
7 23rd
Rushing
CAR
28 55th
YDS
-51 3rd
YPC
-1.8 8th
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | L 16-38vs Memphis | 21/29 | 201 | 0 | 1 | 6.9 | 37.5 | |
| Wk 3 | W 37-21vs Murray State | 11/18 | 150 | 1 | 2 | 8.3 | 18.5 | |
| Wk 4 | L 21-70@ Vanderbilt | 22/35 | 176 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 | 54.3 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-14vs James Madison | 19/28 | 198 | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 50.7 | |
| Wk 7 | L 20-41vs App State | 13/26 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 3.5 | 15.5 | |
| Wk 11 | L 27-40@ Coastal Carolina | 16/26 | 177 | 1 | 1 | 6.8 | 44.5 | |
| Wk 12 | L 18-30vs Marshall | 25/39 | 251 | 1 | 2 | 6.4 | 31.1 | Season-high 251 yds |
| Total | 127/201 | 1244 | 6 | 7 | 6.3 | 36.0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Auburn6-6HC: Bryan Harsin · Balanced
2022Auburn5-7HC: Cadillac Williams · Run-heavy
2023Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning
2025Georgia State1-11HC: Dell McGee · Pass-leaning
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Georgia State | 127 | 201 | 63.2% | 1,244 | 6.2 | 6 | 7 | 118.1 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 279 | 414 | 67.4% | 3,439 | 8.3 | 24 | 8 | 152.4 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Auburn | 33 | 53 | 62.3% | 431 | 8.1 | 1 | 4 | 121.7 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Auburn | 70 | 128 | 54.7% | 827 | 6.5 | 6 | 1 | 122.9 | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 509 | 796 | 63.9% | 5,941 | 7.5 | 37 | 20 | 137.0 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Georgia State | 28 | -51 | -1.8 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 78 | 81 | 1.0 | 5 | -- |
| 2022 | Auburn | 17 | 33 | 1.9 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Auburn | 20 | -36 | -1.8 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 143 | 27 | 0.2 | 7 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,244 | #134/382 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 6 | #141/407 | 66th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 127 | #120/383 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 63.2% | #162/383 | 58th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.2 | #248/382 | 35th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -51 | #396/408 | 3rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.20 | #146/200 | 28th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 182 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 42.0% | #138/428 | 68th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 201 | #123/407 | 70th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 7 | #316/407 | 23rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 28 | #185/408 | 55th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 15 | #218/391 | 45th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -1.8 | #374/407 | 8th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 64.4% | #158/428 | 63rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 50.5% | #143/428 | 67th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 49.2% | #153/428 | 64th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 39.4% | #145/428 | 66th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 38.5% | #115/428 | 73rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 38.1% | #118/428 | 73rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 7.4% | #214/428 | 50th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 178 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 1.2 |
| Road2g | 176 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 150 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 2.0 |
| Losses6g | 182 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 163 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 214 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 1.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
31Below cohort
Concern: rush yards (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds57%of completions
42 comp4.8 yds avg2 TD
Middle
10–19 yds35%of completions
26 comp13.7 yds avg1 TD
Deep
20+ yds8%of completions
6 comp34.0 yds avg1 TD
Overall 63.2% completion on 117 attempts.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.2Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
TJ FinleyGeorgia StateNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 77% simJalen KitnaUAB· 72% simPreston StoneNorthwestern· 71% sim
Fumbles lost
Completion %
Interceptions
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Yards / att
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Spencer Petras’s 2021 season.
Spencer Petras
61%match
#2
Emmett Morehead
59%
#3
Shane Illingworth
58%
#4
Maalik Murphy
58%
#5
Jacob Sirmon
57%
Matches Spencer on
Yards / attempt
Differs from Spencer on
Height (higher)
Completion % (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Through 6 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Tanner McKee’s path through Stanford.
Tanner McKee
87%match
NFL Rd 6
#2
Zac Thomas
All-Sun Belt
86%
#3
Hayden Wolff
77%
#4
James Blackman
76%
#5
Jalen Kitna
75%
Matches Tanner on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
Height
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dell McGee
Pass share
56.5%
472 pass / 363 run
Plays / game
69.6
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.6%
373 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Shawn Elliott
Georgia State
2022
Shawn Elliott
Georgia State
2023
Shawn Elliott
Georgia State
2025era →
Dell McGee
Georgia State
Coaching transition mid-career: Shawn Elliott → Dell McGee. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPonchatoula, LA
Height6'7"
Weight238 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey2
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamGeorgia State
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Western Kentucky | QB3 | #1237 | #1190 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
| 2023 | Texas State | QB3 | #107 | #190 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | Auburn | QB3 | #981 | #1070 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
| 2021 | Auburn | QB3 | #425 | #384 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-7 | 238 lb | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 2024 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-7 | 238 lb | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-7 | 238 lb | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 2022 | Auburn | SEC | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-7 | 238 lb | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 2021 | Auburn | SEC | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-7 | 238 lb | Ponchatoula, LA |