Dell McGee

Head coach · Georgia State
3rd season · since 2024

At school8-24since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatHot29% · 9th of 132 jobsLast gameL 20-31vs Coastal Carolina · Oct 31Nextat App StateSat Nov 7 · 2:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, lost 3 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 20-31 vs. Coastal Carolina Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat29% 9th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextat App State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature116th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 24%. Lose and he’s at 32%.

at App State, Sat Nov 7, 2:30 pm ET ESPN+ · App State is 5-3 · McGee vs. Dowell Loggains: 0-1 · Georgia State’s chance to win: 42% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Georgia State wins: 24%, 14th of 132Now: 29%If Georgia State loses: 32%, 9th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Georgia State wins: 24%, 14th of 132
  • Now: 29%
  • If Georgia State loses: 32%, 9th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

29% chance he’s out after the season · 9th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow20% had they wonLoss 32%Win 24%45%34%25%28%22%15%16%22%29%Pre1W vs. North Carolina A&TW2W at Kennesaw StateW3L at UCFL4W vs. Northern IllinoisW5W vs. Old DominionW6L at James MadisonL7L at Arkansas StateL8L vs. Coastal CarolinaL9Chance to win at App State42%10Chance to win vs. Georgia Southern31%11Chance to win at Marshall37%12Chance to win vs. Louisiana18%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow20% had they wonLoss 32%Win 24%45%29%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-837%
  2. 5-727%
  3. 6-620%
  4. 7-515%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (4 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (5 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (6 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 26%, 9th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 27%, 14th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 27%, 15th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 32%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 36%, 7th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 38%, 6th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 41%, 6th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 41%, 6th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 43%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 44%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 45%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 45%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 45%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 45%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 28%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 22%, 26th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 13%, 36th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 16%, 27th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 22%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 29%, 11th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 29%, 9th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 16▲ 1-11, outscored by 217

Hottest: 2025, week 16 (45%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-11, outscored by 217

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-20 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.7M buyout · 1.9× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,663,350 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 1.9× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 16%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 29th of 138 per play. Defense: 65th.

Offense, per play29thPassing offense14thDefense, per play65thDefense, opponents' starting field position119thWorstBest
Offense, per play29th of 138Passing offense14th of 138Defense, per play65th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position119th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Georgia State. The other two rows are where Georgia State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at App State (5-3)ESPN+42%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Georgia Southern (4-4)ESPN+31%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Marshall (5-3)37%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Louisiana (5-3)18%

Percent: Georgia State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Georgia State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

110th116th122ndPreseason115thNorth Carolina A&T W 59-10North Carolina A&T W 59-10W 59-10North Carolin…116thKennesaw State W 31-17Kennesaw State W 31-17W 31-17Kennesaw State117thUCF L 30-44UCF L 30-44L 30-44UCF116thNorthern Illinois W 35-14Northern Illinois W 35-14W 35-14Northern Illi…116thOld Dominion W 42-10Old Dominion W 42-10W 42-10Old Dominion115thJames Madison L 22-49James Madison L 22-49L 22-49James Madison115thArkansas State L 32-38Arkansas State L 32-38L 32-38Arkansas State114thCoastal Carolina L 20-31Coastal Carolina L 20-31L 20-31Coastal Carol…114th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 20-31 vs. Coastal Carolina0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 32-38 at Arkansas State0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 22-49 at James Madison1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11No game0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 42-10 vs. Old Dominion0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 35-14 vs. Northern Illinois0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Georgia State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.