CJ Bailey

#11 · QB · Jr. · NC State6′6″ · 218 lb · Miami, FL · Chaminade-Madonna

ZPR5939th of 119 QBs Last gameW 31–10vs California · Oct 31

Nextvs DukeSat Nov 7 · 12:30 pm ET

Graded Solid or better in each of the last two games.

Last game: W 31-10 vs California, Oct 31 · 13 of 25 for 192 yards, 2 touchdowns, a lost fumble · 7 carries for 1 yard. Started all eight of NC State’s games.

NC State’s next game: vs Duke, Sat Nov 7, 12:30 p.m. ET · The CW

NC State is 4-4 in the eight games played. A chain-mover.

Strongest: sacked on 4% of dropbacks, 37th lowest of 158 starters.

Plays most like Mandal, Fresno State.

Passing yards

1,955

156 of 244, 64%

TD–INT

13–4

8.0 per throw

NCAA rating

145.5

51st of 119

ZPR

39th of 119

How ZPR works

One rough passing grade, at Virginia.

Best by our grade: Louisville. Lowest: at Virginia, with 1 interception and sacked 2 times. Best play: Completion for 58 yards, touchdown, at Stanford, Q1 2:12. Win chance 16% to 40%.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

at Virginia

L 8–34·Unranked

Fans talked about this game

Rough

84 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT · Rush 10 for 33 · Lost a fumble · Sacked 2

CJ Bailey googling "is it too late to transfer" as soon as he gets home
NC State fan

None of the quarterback’s own plays moved the team's chance of winning by more than a few points.

Full game page

Richmond

W 73–0·FCS

Few throws

281 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 6 for 25, 1 TD · Sacked 0

None of the quarterback’s own plays moved the team's chance of winning by more than a few points.

Full game page

at Vanderbilt

L 31–35·Unranked

Solid

275 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · Rush 9 for 35 · The interception cost about 6 points of win chance · Lost a fumble · Sacked 1

F--- you CJ Bailey. Hope you go to the browns (you will)
NC State fan

Biggest swing: a Q4 incompletion cost the team 19 points of win chance. Win chance: 83% to 64%.

Full game page

App State

W 41–31·Unranked

Solid

Strong start, faded late · 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 2 for 6, 1 TD · Sacked 0

6'7" CJ Bailey and passes tipped at the line, name a better duo
NC State fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 run added 13 points of win chance. Win chance: 66% to 80%.

Full game page

Louisville

W 31–28·Unranked

Solid

Steady all game · 373 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 7 for 19 · The interception cost about 7 points of win chance · Sacked 2

But that's CJ Bailey's peewee football teammate, because that matters!
NC State fan

Biggest swing: a Q3 completion added 15 points of win chance. Win chance: 78% to 93%.

Full game page

Wake Forest

L 14–38·Unranked

Solid

Strong start, faded late · 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 13 for 0 · Lost a fumble · Sacked 1

"Well guys, we may lose this game but it's okay. Well just try to hold them under 50 for the game. CJ Bailey you're perfect"
NC State fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 25 points of win chance. It flipped the game for the team: 40% to 65%.

Full game page

at Stanford

L 28–31·Unranked

Solid

256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 9 for 59 · Sacked 2

Whoever clocked CJ Bailey as a potential 1st round pick, need to have their heads examined
NC State fan

Biggest swing: a Q4 completion added 22 points of win chance. Win chance: 10% to 32%.

Full game page

California

W 31–10·Unranked

Solid

Slow start, strong finish · 192 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 7 for 1 · Lost a fumble · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: a Q3 completion added 20 points of win chance. Win chance: 63% to 83%.

Full game page

Season

Fades after halftime

How to read this

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

Style of play

Chain-mover

Why this word

Runs4.9 a gameRarelyA lot

Throws9.2 yards past the lineShortDeep

Completes63% by play-by-playFewerMore

Takes sacks4% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws at a middling depth and runs some. 4.9 carries a game. Closest matches: Mandal, Alejado ’25, Bachmeier, Maiava.

Where the throws go

Behind the line14%typical 17%

Short48%typical 47%

Middle22%typical 22%

Deep16%typical 14%

Runs 4.9 times a game; 58% of starters run less.

Closest in style

Nearer the middle means more alike.

Mandal Fresno State · Balanced
1,595 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT so far. Both rarely throw behind the line and are efficient.
Alejado ’25 Hawai'i 2025 · Chain-mover
3,106 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT. Both score a lot and are efficient.
Bachmeier BYU · Dual-threat
1,750 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT so far. Both score a lot and rarely throw behind the line.
Maiava USC · Chain-mover
2,525 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT so far. Both avoid sacks and are efficient.

Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

RecordNC State is 4-4.
Fans after California
at least the CJ Bailey experience is over after this year
NC State fan

What’s being said

8 stories in the last 30 days, from 6 outlets.

Stories per day. W and L: the team’s results.

NC State Throws Gasoline On Transfer Rumors After Being Trashed By CJ Bailey’s Mom

BroBible Oct 26

All 102 stories this season

His most important play this season

Q1, 2:12 · NC State down 14CJ Bailey finds Deandre Desinor for a 58-yard touchdownNC State at Stanford, week 8Q1, 2:12 · NC State 7, Stanford 145858-yard touchdown pass5858-yard touchdown pass58-yard touchdown passC.Bailey pass complete deep left to D.Desinor caught at STAN31, for 58 yards to the STAN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play

All 13 of his plays on video

CJ Bailey

QB · NC State · #11

Operates within the system without forcing anything. Third year in the NC State quarterback room. First career honor, 2024: ACC Rookie Player of the Week. On tape: 373 passing yards and 19 rushing yards against Louisville, Week 5, 2026.

1,955 passing yards · 13 passing TD · 178 rushing yards

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2026	NC State	156	244	63.9%	1,955	8.0	13	4	145.5	59
2025	NC State	273	397	68.8%	3,105	7.8	25	9	150.7	63
2024	NC State	196	302	64.9%	2,412	8.0	17	10	143.9	70
Career		625	943	66.3%	7,472	7.9	55	23	147.2	64

Season	Team
2026	NC State	63	178	2.8	2	28
2025	NC State	89	215	2.4	6	30
2024	NC State	99	279	2.8	5	31
Career		251	672	2.7	13	31

Last game (Wk 9): 192 passing yards, 2 passing TD.

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2026 season · 8 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	Grade	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	SK	RUSH	Note
Wk 1	L 8-34@ Virginia	Rough	12/23	84	0	1	3.7	39.5	2	33
Wk 2	W 73-0vs Richmond		13/17	281	1	0	16.5	92.0	0	25
Wk 3	L 31-35@ Vanderbilt	Solid	25/37	275	3	1	7.4	74.3	1	35	3 TD passes
Wk 4	W 41-31vs App State	Solid	24/33	253	2	1	7.7	77.3	0	6
Wk 5	W 31-28vs Louisville	Solid	24/40	373	2	1	9.3	89.1	2	19	Season-high 373 yds
Wk 6	L 14-38vs Wake Forest	Solid	28/39	241	1	0	6.2	46.7	1	0
Wk 8	L 28-31@ Stanford	Solid	17/30	256	2	0	8.5	75.3	2	59	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 9	W 31-10vs California	Solid	13/25	192	2	0	7.7	35.7	1	1
Total			156/244	1955	13	4	8.0	—	9	178

The latest game

Oct. 31 · W 31-10 vs California, play by play

13 of 25 for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was 3 of 9 on third and fourth down.

5 of 11 of his drives scored
3 of 9 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
6 runs for 10 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD1 of 1, 49 yds1
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds2
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds3
Punt3 of 4, 15 yds4
Punt0 of 3, 0 yds
Second quarterbegan up 7-0
FG1 of 2, 12 yds
Fumble—
Third quarterbegan tied 10-10
TD3 of 5, 56 yds
TD2 of 2, 9 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 24-10
TD3 of 3, 51 yds
Missed FG0 of 1, 0 yds
FinalW 31-10

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
49-yard touchdown pass to Deandre Desinor on 3rd and 5. First quarter, made it 7-0.
2
Incomplete to Davion Gause on 3rd and 12. First quarter, up 7-0.
3
Incomplete to Davion Dozier on 3rd and 7. First quarter, up 7-0. Broken up by California’s J. Young.
4
6-yard completion to Victor Snow on 3rd and 9. First quarter, up 7-0.

The season, game by game

W 31-10 vs CaliforniaOct. 31192 yds13 of 25, 2 TDPlay by play just above · 7.7 yds an attempt, 44th in FBS

L 28-31 at StanfordOct. 23256 yds17 of 30, 2 TD8.5 yds an attempt, 25th in FBS

17 of 30 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

6 more games, with the play by play

L 14-38 vs Wake ForestOct. 10241 yds28 of 39, 1 TD6.2 yds an attempt, 71st in FBS

Play by playOn the field

28 of 39 for 241 yards and a touchdown. Two drives ended on his fourth-down plays: an incompletion and an incompletion.

2 of 9 of his drives scored
7 of 16 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
10 runs for 37 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Fumble1 of 1, 0 yds1
TD6 of 6, 67 yds23
TD7 of 7, 87 yds
Second quarterbegan tied 7-7
Punt2 of 3, 19 yds
Third quarterbegan up 14-10
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
Downs3 of 6, 14 yds4
Punt1 of 3, 5 yds
Fourth quarterbegan down 31-14
Punt2 of 2, 17 yds
Downs6 of 9, 32 yds
FinalL 14-38

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
6-yard run on 3rd and 11. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
17-yard completion to Preston Douglas on 3rd and 5. First quarter, down 7-0. Converted.
3
24-yard touchdown pass to Chance Robinson on 3rd and 5. First quarter, made it 7-7.
4
Incomplete to Victor Snow on 4th and 5. Third quarter, down 24-14. Turnover on downs. Broken up by Wake Forest’s B. Johnson.

1020304050

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 31-28 vs LouisvilleOct. 3373 yds24 of 40, 2 TD, 1 INT9.3 yds an attempt, 20th in FBS

Play by playOn the field

24 of 40 for 373 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He was 8 of 15 on third and fourth down.

6 of 10 of his drives scored
8 of 15 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
5 runs for 31 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG2 of 5, 40 yds12
TD6 of 9, 69 yds
Second quarterbegan up 3-0
FG3 of 3, 46 yds
Third quarterbegan up 13-7
TD5 of 7, 84 yds
Punt1 of 3, 11 yds
TD1 of 1, 13 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 28-21
Int2 of 4, 53 yds34
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
FG3 of 5, 48 yds
End1 of 1, 9 yds
FinalW 31-28

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
16-yard completion to Preston Douglas on 3rd and 11. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
2
Incomplete to Victor Snow on 3rd and 8. First quarter, tied 0-0.
3
46-yard completion to Joshisa Trader. Fourth quarter, up 28-21.
4
Intercepted on 3rd and 3. Fourth quarter, up 28-21. Picked off by Louisville’s Kaleb Beasley.

102030405034363546

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 41-31 vs App StateSept. 26253 yds24 of 33, 2 TD, 1 INT7.7 yds an attempt, 61st in FBS

24 of 33 for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

L 31-35 at VanderbiltSept. 19275 yds25 of 37, 3 TD, 1 INT7.4 yds an attempt, 65th in FBS

25 of 37 for 275 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

W 73-0 vs RichmondSept. 11281 yds13 of 17, 1 TD16.5 yds an attempt, 3rd in FBS

13 of 17 for 281 yards and a touchdown; 16.5 yards an attempt, 3rd-best in FBS that week.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

L 8-34 at VirginiaAug. 2984 yds12 of 23, 1 INT3.7 yds an attempt, 134th in FBS

Play by playOn the field

12 of 23 for 84 yards and an interception. He was 2 of 9 on third and fourth down.

1 of 10 of his drives scored
2 of 9 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
8 runs for 44 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Punt1 of 1, 5 yds
Punt1 of 2, 5 yds
Int1 of 2, 2 yds1
Punt1 of 3, 5 yds
Second quarterbegan down 10-0
Punt1 of 4, 4 yds2
Fumble1 of 1, 14 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
Third quarterbegan down 17-0
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
TD4 of 4, 42 yds3
Fourth quarterbegan down 24-8
Downs2 of 3, 7 yds4
FinalL 8-34

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
Intercepted. First quarter, down 3-0. Picked off by Virginia’s Brandyn Hillman.
2
Incomplete to Keenan Jackson on 3rd and 7. Second quarter, down 17-0. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“CJ Bailey being discussed as a top QB in the ACC let alone the country is ridiculous”California fan, r/CFB game thread
3
21-yard completion to V. Ploog on 3rd and 21. Third quarter, down 24-0. Converted.
4
1-yard completion to Keenan Jackson on 4th and 3. Fourth quarter, down 31-8. Turnover on downs.

1020304050

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

Highs and lows

Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Best by our grade	Louisville	W 31-28 · Graded solid · Steady all game · 373 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 7 for 19 · The interception cost about 7 points of win chance · Sacked 2
Lowest by our grade	at Virginia	L 8-34 · Graded rough · 84 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT · Rush 10 for 33 · Lost a fumble · Sacked 2
Best play	at Stanford	Completion for 58 yards, touchdown, Q1 2:12 · Win chance 16% to 40%

Where he ranks

Stat	His	Nation	ACC
Passing yards	1,955	23rd of 370	8th of 48
Yards an attempt	8.0	T-49th of 152	T-8th of 19
Touchdown passes	13	T-40th of 370	10th of 48
Passer rating	145.5	56th of 152	10th of 19
Completion percentage	63.9	T-69th of 152	11th of 19
Rushing yards	178	T-71st of 370	8th of 48
Rushing touchdowns	2	T-71st of 370	T-7th of 48

Counting stats rank all FBS quarterbacks with a pass attempt; the rates rank those with at least 10 attempts a game.

All ACC quarterbacks

Rk	Quarterback	Yards	TD	INT	Att	Y/A
1	Kevin Jennings	2,433	21	5	251	9.7
2	Darian Mensah	2,425	25	1	233	10.4
3	Davis Warren	2,203	14	3	308	7.2
4	Giovanni Lopez	2,176	18	1	228	9.5
5	Ethan Grunkemeyer	2,140	17	2	262	8.2
6	Lincoln Kienholz	2,094	12	3	208	10.1
7	Ashton Daniels	1,968	14	11	214	9.2
8	CJ Bailey	1,955	13	4	244	8.0
9	Billy Edwards	1,871	15	5	235	8.0
10	Alberto Mendoza	1,795	10	6	240	7.5
11	Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele	1,751	11	6	264	6.6
12	Walker Eget	1,641	9	3	215	7.6
13	Beau Pribula	1,587	14	3	212	7.5
14	Mason McKenzie	1,450	8	7	201	7.2
15	Mason Heintschel	1,304	14	1	148	8.8
16	Tait Reynolds	1,287	3	3	211	6.1
17	Steven Angeli	1,186	7	5	171	6.9
18	Holden Geriner	886	4	2	132	6.7
19	Jackson Brousseau	701	3	0	120	5.8
20	Malachi Nelson	532	3	2	70	7.6
21	Amari Odom	391	6	2	47	8.3
22	Corey Dailey	316	3	3	35	9.0
23	Eli Holstein	282	3	0	34	8.3
24	Luke Nickel	204	3	1	20	10.2
25	Dan Mahan	175	3	1	22	8.0
26	Grady Adamson	135	1	0	27	5.0
27	Bryce Baker	127	1	0	14	9.1
28	Ty Hawkins	117	2	0	14	8.4
29	Christopher Vizzina	102	1	2	23	4.4
30	Steele Pizzella	85	0	0	9	9.4
31	Trent Pearman	80	0	2	13	6.2
32	Danny Lauter	74	1	0	11	6.7
33	Femi Babalola	49	0	0	5	9.8
34	Mike Mitchell Jr.	46	0	0	10	4.6
35	Cole Geer	45	1	0	7	6.4
36	Terry Walker III	44	0	0	4	11.0
37	Will Wilson	35	2	0	12	2.9
38	Dereon Coleman	30	0	0	6	5.0
39	Briggs Cherry	24	0	0	2	12.0
40	Miles O'Neill	22	0	0	6	3.7
41	Kevin Sperry	21	0	0	5	4.2
42	Davin Wydner	19	1	0	4	4.8
43	Charlie Fiser	8	0	0	2	4.0
44	Cole Leinart	5	0	0	1	5.0
45	Brock Bradley	0	0	0	1	0.0
46	Charlie Mirer	0	0	1	1	0.0
47	Grayson Wilson	-1	0	0	5	-0.2
48	Ryan Zimmerman	-1	0	0	1	-1.0

Sorted by passing yards. Gray: under 10 attempts a game, so not ranked on yards an attempt.

Passing yards1,9558th in the ACC this season; 21st among current FBS players over the whole career (7,472).

Touchdown passes1310th in the ACC this season; 21st among current FBS players over the whole career (55).

Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.

Opponents faced, by strength

Ratings of the games shown run from -11 to +12 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).

Pass targets

Jackson and Douglas saw 79 of the 246 charted throws.

Receiver	Targets	Catches	Yards	Throw depth	After catch
Keenan Jackson	45	29	451	12.8	4.5
Preston Douglas	34	26	304	8.0	4.7
Victor Snow	29	18	168	8.2	5.4
Davion Gause	28	21	217	1.1	9.9
Joshisa Trader	26	16	221	9.9	5.7
11 others	76	46	598	10.7	4.9
No receiver charted	8	All four interceptions are among these

Play by play: 246 passes, 156 caught, 1,959 yards; the box score counts 244 attempts. Throw depth: average air yards per target. After catch: average yards after the catch per catch. Bar: targets; the blue part was caught.

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

156/244 (63.9%) · 13 TD · 4 INT

All 244 box-score attempts covered (play-by-play lists 247 passing plays)

243 of 247 attempts charted for true throw depth

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 247 passing plays (157 completions) against the box score's 244 attempts (156 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

7.7050 of 185 QBs

Sack rate

4.3%64 of 185 QBs

Rarely sacked (64 of 185 QBs) and still 50 of 185 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

13% of attempts (32)

84%comp1 INT

Air -3.3 · YAC 10.3 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

49% of attempts (118)

72%comp2 INT

Air 4.4 · YAC 4.8 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

23% of attempts (56)

52%comp

Air 14.6 · YAC 2.8 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

15% of attempts (37)

38%comp1 INT

Air 27.6 · YAC 7.5 avg

Overall 63.9% completion on 244 attempts · 38% completion on 37 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2026 baseline

+92

percentile points better on third down or later

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-69 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/83 (3.6%) · league sack rate 4.5%

Down 2

-5 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/80 (3.8%) · league sack rate 5.0%

Down 3+

+92 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/66 (4.5%) · league sack rate 8.3%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

3 seasons under Dave Doeren — 18-16 over that span.

2024NC State6-7HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced, slow tempo

2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced

2026NC State4-4HC: Dave Doeren · Run-leaning

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 61 (#37 of 145). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

61Quality starter #37 of 145?

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass yards (85th percentile). Concern: fumbles lost (2nd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#33 / 157 · 79th pct

0.34

Success rate#33 / 157 · 79th pct

47.5%

Sack rate#48 / 157 · 70th pct

4.3%

Interception rate#50 / 157 · 68th pct

1.6%

Explosive rate#62 / 157 · 61st pct

10.9%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass yards#24 / 159 · 85th pct

1955

Pass TDs#41 / 159 · 71st pct

Yards / att#52 / 159 · 66th pct

8.0

Rush yards#58 / 159 · 64th pct

178

Completion %#72 / 159 · 55th pct

63.9%

Interceptions#62 / 159 · 54th pct

Rush TDs#57 / 159 · 52nd pct

Fumbles lost#137 / 142 · 2nd pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

81st → 79th percentile

Success rate

68th → 79th percentile

Explosive rate

73rd → 61st percentile

Sack rate

59th → 70th percentile

Interception rate

38th → 68th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 229 dropbacks

59Zeitgeist Passer Rating39th of 119 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 145.5 51st of 119 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks this quarterback 12 places higher than passer rating does: positive plays and yards per attempt come at a higher rate than the box line suggests.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

50.1%74th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -1.9% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

7.8660th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.2 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

5.0%62nd pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · +1.1% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (27 of 256 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2026 season · 8 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home5g	268	1.6	9.5	0.4
Road3g	205	1.7	6.5	0.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	251	1.5	8.5	0.7
Weeks 8+2g	224	2.0	8.1	0.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Dave Doeren

Pass share

47.0%

258 pass / 291 run

Plays / game

68.6

8 games

Scheme: Run-leaning.

NC State’s two quarterbacks

CJ Bailey	Threw in all 8 games · 156 of 244, 1,955 yds, 13 TD, 4 INT · 8.0 yards an attempt on 244 attempts · ran for 178 yds, 2 TD
Will Wilson	Threw in 3 of 8 games · 9 of 12, 35 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 2.9 yards an attempt on 12 attempts · ran for 179 yds, 8 TD

Box score. Every quarterback on the team who has thrown a pass this season.

Who threw, quarter by quarter

Who threw in each quarter. Blue: CJ Bailey. Gray: Will Wilson. From the play by play.

Q1Q2Q3Q4@ VirginiaRichmond@ VanderbiltApp StateLouisvilleWake Forest@ StanfordCalifornia

Awards

Player standing · 2026

Impact starter

244 pass attempts, 63 carries and 1 catch in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

61 · #37 of 145 QBs

Former four-star. Now #37 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-ACC

Based on 2025: #5 of 17 ACC QBs

How the All-ACC base rate is computed

A base rate for the rank, not a forecast of this player: 35% of returning players who ranked #4–10 at their position in their conference made an all-conference team the next season (95% confidence interval 31–38%).

CJ Bailey

Style of play

This week

What’s being said

His most important play this season

In the news in the last 30 days

What they’re talking about

In the news this season

What they’re talking about

Week by week

In the news across his career

What fans said

Where to follow

Career stats

Game log

The latest game

The season, game by game

Highs and lows

Where he ranks

Pass targets

Passing profile

Situational

Teams and coaches

Our ratings

Splits

NC State’s two quarterbacks

Who threw, quarter by quarter

Awards

Impact starter

Three seasons at NC State

2024 12 games