NC State at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt (2‑0) hosts NC State (1‑1). The market has Vanderbilt favored by 3.
How they got here
Last two games
NC State · 1-1
Picked #44 in the preseason · now #47 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last two games
Vanderbilt · 2-0
Picked #45 in the preseason · now #44 — about right.
Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 35–26 vs Delaware #40 of 669
won by 9 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 28–9 vs Austin Peay #105 of 669
won by 19 as a 29-point favorite
What’s at stake
NC State
- NC State sits at 2% to make the CFP field — 2% with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- NC State is coming off a 73-point win.
Vanderbilt
- Vanderbilt sits at 6% to make the CFP field — 7% with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Clark Lea is ahead of Derek Mason’s year-6 pace (2-0 vs. 0-2) — a win tonight widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
Vanderbilt leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 1946 · NC State won the last meeting
- 2016 · neutral siteNC State 41–17
- 2012 · neutral siteVanderbilt 38–24
- 1946Vanderbilt 7–0
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
NC State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being the forgotten school on Tobacco Road — the one nobody mentions when the cameras find Carolina blue and Duke's gym, even after producing more starting NFL quarterbacks than either of them.
What this game touches
The 2002 team that didn't break through. Philip Rivers' four-year run produced the most talented Wolfpack teams of the modern era and a string of bowl wins, but never an ACC title or a major-bowl breakthrough — the standing reminder that talent in Raleigh has rarely translated to a conference crown.
Vanderbilt
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery preseason poll buries Vanderbilt by reflex, and the fanbase has heard 'the scheme called it a scheduling accident' so often it became the program's dry punchline. They say 2025 wasn't luck — it was the year the math finally listened.
What this game touches
The thirty-nine-year wait between bowls. Before James Franklin's 2011-2013 window, Vanderbilt had not been to a bowl since the Reagan administration — the long stretch of seasons that taught the fanbase to brace for the floor, and made 2025's 10 wins feel less like a result than a vindication.
Best players
NC State
- Raul Aguirre Jr. (LB) · 21 tackles
- Keenan Jackson (WR) · 129 receiving yards
- Jayden Scott (RB) · 148 rushing yards
Vanderbilt
- C.J. Heard (S) · 14 tackles
- Junior Sherrill (WR) · 164 receiving yards
- Nicholas Rinaldi (LB) · 13 tackles
The line, and the room
Vanderbilt fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (40th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −3 · O/U 51
Conditions
92°F · 5 mph wind · Fair
Vanderbilt is worth +1.1 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 6th percentile.
41% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (19–27 home, 10–31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.4 at home vs. away over 74 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 453 miles to get here.
Recent games
Vanderbilt
- Wk 1Wvs Austin Peay28-9
- Wk 2Wvs Delaware35-26
NC State
- Wk 1Lat Virginia8-34
- Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −4 → −3 · Total: 52.5 → 51
Book hold: 3.4%