South Florida

6-2

Next game: at East Carolina

South Florida’s best edge on East Carolina is running

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

South Florida offense against East Carolina defense

weakelite
PassingSouth Florida 8th · East Carolina 97th
RunningSouth Florida 76th · East Carolina 45th
Staying on scheduleSouth Florida 72nd · East Carolina 82nd
Big playsSouth Florida 1st · East Carolina 42nd
Red zoneSouth Florida 64th · East Carolina 44th

East Carolina offense against South Florida defense

weakelite
PassingEast Carolina 16th · South Florida 35th
RunningEast Carolina 19th · South Florida 86th
Staying on scheduleEast Carolina 13th · South Florida 62nd
Big playsEast Carolina 40th · South Florida 93rd
Red zoneEast Carolina 34th · South Florida 73rd

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play78th of 138
+0.11
EPA allowed / play40th of 138
+0.03
Interceptions thrown1st of 138
0
Red zone score %1st of 137
96.2%
Red zone pass rate132nd of 137
19.3%
Total yards133rd of 138
2517
Points / game76th of 138
27.0
All 94 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
2517314.6/gm5.34/play133rd of 13868th of 7014th of 1413th of 13
Opp
2453306.6/gm4.81/play24th of 13819th of 701st of 141st of 13
Rush yards
Team
1184148.0/gm2.51/playTied 83rd of 138Tied 46th of 7011th of 1413th of 13
Opp
1026128.2/gm2.01/play46th of 13834th of 702nd of 141st of 13
Rush carries
Team
27634.5/gm93rd of 13848th of 7011th of 1413th of 13
Opp
28735.9/gmTied 71st of 138Tied 47th of 703rd of 141st of 13
Rush TDs
Team
162.0/gmTied 43rd of 138Tied 24th of 708th of 1410th of 13
Opp
60.8/gmTied 17th of 138Tied 14th of 701st of 141st of 13
Net pass yards
Team
1333166.6/gm2.83/play130th of 13870th of 7011th of 1413th of 13
Opp
1427178.4/gm2.80/play21st of 13813th of 702nd of 141st of 13
Pass attempts
Team
19524.4/gm126th of 13868th of 7010th of 1413th of 13
Opp
22327.9/gmTied 34th of 13814th of 705th of 141st of 13
Completions
Team
12515.6/gmTied 118th of 13864th of 709th of 1413th of 13
Opp
13617.0/gmTied 35th of 138Tied 16th of 705th of 141st of 13
Pass TDs
Team
60.8/gmTied 127th of 13869th of 70Tied 10th of 1412th of 13
Opp
60.8/gmTied 7th of 138Tied 5th of 70Tied 1st of 141st of 13
Passer rating95th of 13858th of 708th of 147th of 13
129.6129.6
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gm1st of 1381st of 701st of 141st of 13
Opp
20.2/gmTied 127th of 138Tied 61st of 7014th of 1413th of 13
Sacks (def)
Team
192.4/gmTied 43rd of 138Tied 27th of 703rd of 148th of 11
Opp
162.0/gmTied 73rd of 138Tied 37th of 70Tied 8th of 143rd of 11
Tackles for loss
Team
617.6/gmTied 10th of 138Tied 6th of 702nd of 149th of 11
Opp
405.0/gmTied 56th of 138Tied 28th of 70Tied 7th of 141st of 11
First downs
Team
14918.6/gmTied 109th of 138Tied 63rd of 707th of 1413th of 13
Opp
13617.0/gm25th of 13819th of 701st of 141st of 13
3rd-down conv
Team
374.6/gmTied 108th of 138Tied 59th of 70Tied 9th of 1413th of 13
Opp
405.0/gmTied 50th of 138Tied 30th of 703rd of 141st of 13
3rd-down att
Team
9211.5/gmTied 128th of 138Tied 65th of 7013th of 1413th of 13
Opp
11414.2/gmTied 84th of 138Tied 39th of 70Tied 9th of 141st of 13
4th-down conv
Team
50.6/gmTied 111th of 138Tied 56th of 70Tied 10th of 1413th of 13
Opp
70.9/gmTied 55th of 138Tied 31st of 70Tied 4th of 141st of 13
4th-down att
Team
91.1/gmTied 122nd of 138Tied 59th of 70Tied 13th of 1413th of 13
Opp
202.5/gmTied 111th of 138Tied 56th of 70Tied 9th of 145th of 13
Time of possession
Team
229:3028:41/gm110th of 13857th of 709th of 1413th of 13
Opp
250:3031:19/gm91st of 13852nd of 708th of 141st of 13

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Pocket Passer · +4.44 EPA/play38116 / 18164.112737.060134.1—40.17.70
+0.26 EPA/play1769 / 1464.3604.300100.3—58.6——
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Balanced Back · +0.13 EPA/play58121578
#55 FBS
4.87
#36 FBS
3918.512.6
Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play28522444.722115.413.5
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Slot Technician · +0.39 EPA/play183334510.5242
Possession Receiver · +0.23 EPA/play8082327411.9238
Deep Threat · +0.36 EPA/play—61418613.3136
-0.59 EPA/play65912113.4025
+0.46 EPA/play43111089.8017
Complete TE · -0.10 EPA/play8610858.5020
+0.32 EPA/play47355410.8015

Biggest plays from South Florida’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in South Florida’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q4, 0:19 · South Florida down 9, takes the leadMichael Van Buren Jr. finds Joshua Porter for a 38-yard touchdownSouth Florida at Army, week 2Q4, 0:19 · South Florida 28, Army 240:19Go-ahead touchdown for South Florida with 0:19 left0:19Go-ahead touchdown for South Florida with 0:19 leftGo-ahead touchdown for South Florida with 0:19 leftJoshua Porter 38 yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Nico Gramatica Kick)Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
  2. Q4, 0:15 · UTSA down 1, takes the leadA'Marion Peterson runs 1 yard for a touchdownSouth Florida at UTSA, week 6Q4, 0:15 · UTSA 31, South Florida 240:15Go-ahead touchdown for UTSA with 0:15 left0:15Go-ahead touchdown for UTSA with 0:15 leftGo-ahead touchdown for UTSA with 0:15 leftA'Marion Peterson 1 yd Run (Owen McCown Pass to David Amador II for Two-Point Conversion)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q4, 3:08 · Temple down 3, takes the leadAjani Sheppard runs 34 yards for a touchdownTemple at South Florida, week 5Q4, 3:08 · Temple 17, South Florida 133:08Go-ahead touchdown for Temple with 3:08 left3:08Go-ahead touchdown for Temple with 3:08 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Temple with 3:08 leftA.Sheppard rush middle for 34 yards gain to the USF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:47 · South Florida down 7, ties itJason Collins Jr. runs 6 yards for a touchdownUAB at South Florida, week 9Q2, 0:47 · South Florida 10, UAB 10South Florida tied the game in the second quarterSouth Florida tied the game in the second quarterJ.Collins Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the UAB00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q1, 3:13 · UTSA down 7, ties itA'Marion Peterson runs 53 yards for a touchdownSouth Florida at UTSA, week 6Q1, 3:13 · UTSA 7, South Florida 75353-yard touchdown run5353-yard touchdown run53-yard touchdown runA.Peterson rush middle for 53 yards gain to the USF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q1, 0:11 · South Florida breaks the tieMichael Van Buren Jr. finds Bryson Rodgers for a 42-yard touchdownSouth Florida at UTSA, week 6Q1, 0:11 · South Florida 14, UTSA 7South Florida took the lead in the first quarterSouth Florida took the lead in the first quarterBryson Rodgers 42 yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Nico Gramatica Kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football

All 24 plays from South Florida’s games

How scary each game got

South Florida lost at UTSA after being 86% to win; the closest win was at Army, down to 3%

50%W1W2W3W4L5L6W7W9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave South Florida during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · South Florida

through 8 games

Ayden Jackson leads South Florida with 42 tackles through 8 games.

1. Ayden Jackson DB 42 tackles
2. Zavier Hamilton LB 40 tackles
3. Tavin Ward S 39 tackles
4. D.J. Crowther RB 578 rushing yards
5. Sam Robinson LB 32 tackles

Roster

Roster

2026
23 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
Michael Van Buren Jr. QB #1 of 145
Asani Redwood IDL #40 of 300
Ayden Jackson S #89 of 537
Michael Williams II EDGE #69 of 405
D.J. Crowther RB #68 of 330
Tavin Ward S #188 of 537

+17 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

South Florida fields a limited methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
44th pct EPA/play
Style
72nd pct success, 1st explosiveness
Defense
71st pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
93rd pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · South Florida · 2026

South Florida reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 7%) and rushing EPA allowed (top 15%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where South Florida sits at the 1st percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.11
44th
Success rate +0.46
72nd
Explosive plays +1.03
1st
Rushing EPA +0.16
76th
Red-zone finish +4.13
64th

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed +0.03
71st
Success rate allowed +0.39
62nd
Explosive plays allowed +1.09
93rd
Passing EPA allowed +0.22
35th
Red-zone defense +3.11
73rd

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +31.76
81st
Passing EPA +0.00
8th
Rushing EPA allowed -0.10
86th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 8 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

South Florida is worth +2.6 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile of 133 programs

43% at home, 29% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (18-24 home, 14-34 away). Interval ±4.7.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, South Florida has beaten the number by −1.3 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Raymond James Stadium seats 65,828 and has averaged 52% full (34,065, 25 games reported). Visitors face the 17th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 661 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads bottom third of fbs. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (28 of 108 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 51 home games since 2018.

Home18-24Away14-34Edge+2.6 ±4.7Visitor trip661 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Usage splitsWho gets the ball late, on money downs and as an underdog.

How the players get used

From the 2025 season's play-by-play

  • Deep threatKeshaun Singleton is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
  • CloserSam Franklin gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest, and what late usage he does get skews toward mop-up duty in blowouts.
Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

D.J. Crowther and Jason Collins Jr. split the carries (118/170 vs 52/170) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jason Collins Jr. produces in bigger chunks.

D.J. CrowtherJason Collins Jr.
Carries
11852
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
13/207/20
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
11/198/19
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
23.3%27.0%
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Bryson Rodgers (WR) and Wyatt Sullivan (TE) split the targets (46/61 vs 15/61) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Bryson RodgersWyatt Sullivan
Targets
4615
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
10/122/12
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
33.7%81.8%
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Team identity · competitive snaps only

How South Florida actually scores

42nd percentile quality, 56th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.

Boom-dependent, below-averageBoom-dependent, eliteGrinding, below-averageConsistent, eliteSouth FloridaBelow-average offenseElite offenseSustained-drive builtExplosive-play dependentMemphis87th quality · 20th boom-shareGeorgia Southern52nd quality · 40th boom-shareOle Miss80th quality · 8th boom-shareDelaware63rd quality · 40th boom-shareJacksonville State62nd quality · 41st boom-shareNorth Dakota State31st quality · 64th boom-shareFlorida State64th quality · 44th boom-shareUCF19th quality · 82nd boom-shareArizona91st quality · 16th boom-shareUtah96th quality · 7th boom-shareStanford53rd quality · 55th boom-shareMiami100th quality · 0th boom-shareUSC80th quality · 12th boom-shareFresno State56th quality · 52nd boom-shareNorth Carolina48th quality · 45th boom-shareTCU21st quality · 75th boom-shareUAB16th quality · 81st boom-shareIllinois70th quality · 38th boom-shareWake Forest98th quality · 4th boom-shareAkron9th quality · 90th boom-shareToledo84th quality · 24th boom-shareRice18th quality · 87th boom-shareTemple56th quality · 56th boom-shareSouth Florida42nd quality · 56th boom-shareFlorida International2nd quality · 98th boom-shareMinnesota4th quality · 95th boom-shareNavy57th quality · 51st boom-shareNC State69th quality · 28th boom-shareVirginia51st quality · 39th boom-shareSan José State13th quality · 84th boom-shareMassachusetts38th quality · 60th boom-shareRutgers32nd quality · 76th boom-shareUNLV44th quality · 67th boom-shareKennesaw State23rd quality · 79th boom-shareWisconsin22nd quality · 84th boom-shareEastern Michigan14th quality · 80th boom-shareNotre Dame97th quality · 5th boom-shareHouston89th quality · 2nd boom-shareOregon State92nd quality · 13th boom-shareSyracuse24th quality · 74th boom-shareSouth Carolina55th quality · 54th boom-shareOhio State79th quality · 23rd boom-shareBall State32nd quality · 72nd boom-shareMiami (OH)68th quality · 31st boom-sharePittsburgh44th quality · 50th boom-shareKansas28th quality · 66th boom-shareIowa State43rd quality · 62nd boom-shareBoston College20th quality · 80th boom-shareCincinnati88th quality · 15th boom-shareIndiana85th quality · 18th boom-shareNorth Texas99th quality · 1st boom-shareColorado15th quality · 86th boom-shareGeorgia Tech30th quality · 70th boom-shareBoise State96th quality · 4th boom-shareOregon28th quality · 72nd boom-shareGeorgia State77th quality · 36th boom-shareAuburn34th quality · 59th boom-shareBaylor36th quality · 63rd boom-shareApp State41st quality · 48th boom-shareUTSA72nd quality · 20th boom-shareArkansas7th quality · 93rd boom-shareIowa52nd quality · 53rd boom-shareNorthern Illinois12th quality · 89th boom-shareTulsa68th quality · 28th boom-shareOklahoma State76th quality · 14th boom-shareDuke74th quality · 8th boom-shareTulane33rd quality · 73rd boom-shareSouthern Miss3rd quality · 97th boom-shareUConn84th quality · 26th boom-shareVanderbilt26th quality · 76th boom-shareAlabama82nd quality · 22nd boom-shareEast Carolina24th quality · 77th boom-sharePurdue65th quality · 34th boom-shareKansas State48th quality · 44th boom-shareVirginia Tech66th quality · 33rd boom-shareNorthwestern93rd quality · 6th boom-shareMiddle Tennessee37th quality · 60th boom-shareArizona State20th quality · 83rd boom-shareLSU86th quality · 9th boom-shareClemson10th quality · 92nd boom-shareBYU83rd quality · 17th boom-shareSan Diego State5th quality · 94th boom-shareNew Mexico39th quality · 68th boom-shareCentral Michigan6th quality · 96th boom-shareHawai'i12th quality · 88th boom-shareTexas Tech50th quality · 46th boom-shareMaryland17th quality · 85th boom-shareMichigan25th quality · 71st boom-shareWestern Michigan29th quality · 68th boom-shareOhio67th quality · 43rd boom-shareNebraska59th quality · 32nd boom-sharePenn State47th quality · 48th boom-shareMarshall36th quality · 61st boom-shareLouisville94th quality · 19th boom-shareArkansas State60th quality · 32nd boom-shareArmy95th quality · 10th boom-shareMissouri54th quality · 49th boom-shareBuffalo8th quality · 88th boom-shareLiberty78th quality · 29th boom-shareJames Madison58th quality · 35th boom-shareSMU81st quality · 16th boom-shareTexas State90th quality · 12th boom-shareTexas11th quality · 91st boom-shareMissouri State40th quality · 64th boom-shareTexas A&M16th quality · 78th boom-shareNevada1st quality · 99th boom-shareWest Virginia73rd quality · 24th boom-shareCoastal Carolina49th quality · 57th boom-shareWestern Kentucky4th quality · 96th boom-shareMississippi State35th quality · 65th boom-shareColorado State88th quality · 30th boom-shareWyoming46th quality · 52nd boom-shareSouth Alabama64th quality · 27th boom-shareLouisiana Tech60th quality · 47th boom-shareLouisiana27th quality · 69th boom-shareWashington40th quality · 58th boom-shareTroy8th quality · 92nd boom-shareFlorida Atlantic72nd quality · 25th boom-shareFlorida75th quality · 37th boom-shareUCLA61st quality · 36th boom-shareKentucky71st quality · 21st boom-shareGeorgia92nd quality · 11th boom-shareAir Force76th quality · 3rd boom-shareTennessee45th quality · 42nd boom-shareUtah State0th quality · 100th boom-share
Boom-reliant, weakBoom-reliant, eliteGrinding, weakConsistent, eliteSouth FloridaBelow-average offenseElite offenseSustained-drive builtExplosive-play dependentMemphis87th quality · 20th boom-shareGeorgia Southern52nd quality · 40th boom-shareOle Miss80th quality · 8th boom-shareDelaware63rd quality · 40th boom-shareJacksonville State62nd quality · 41st boom-shareNorth Dakota State31st quality · 64th boom-shareFlorida State64th quality · 44th boom-shareUCF19th quality · 82nd boom-shareArizona91st quality · 16th boom-shareUtah96th quality · 7th boom-shareStanford53rd quality · 55th boom-shareMiami100th quality · 0th boom-shareUSC80th quality · 12th boom-shareFresno State56th quality · 52nd boom-shareNorth Carolina48th quality · 45th boom-shareTCU21st quality · 75th boom-shareUAB16th quality · 81st boom-shareIllinois70th quality · 38th boom-shareWake Forest98th quality · 4th boom-shareAkron9th quality · 90th boom-shareToledo84th quality · 24th boom-shareRice18th quality · 87th boom-shareTemple56th quality · 56th boom-shareSouth Florida42nd quality · 56th boom-shareFlorida International2nd quality · 98th boom-shareMinnesota4th quality · 95th boom-shareNavy57th quality · 51st boom-shareNC State69th quality · 28th boom-shareVirginia51st quality · 39th boom-shareSan José State13th quality · 84th boom-shareMassachusetts38th quality · 60th boom-shareRutgers32nd quality · 76th boom-shareUNLV44th quality · 67th boom-shareKennesaw State23rd quality · 79th boom-shareWisconsin22nd quality · 84th boom-shareEastern Michigan14th quality · 80th boom-shareNotre Dame97th quality · 5th boom-shareHouston89th quality · 2nd boom-shareOregon State92nd quality · 13th boom-shareSyracuse24th quality · 74th boom-shareSouth Carolina55th quality · 54th boom-shareOhio State79th quality · 23rd boom-shareBall State32nd quality · 72nd boom-shareMiami (OH)68th quality · 31st boom-sharePittsburgh44th quality · 50th boom-shareKansas28th quality · 66th boom-shareIowa State43rd quality · 62nd boom-shareBoston College20th quality · 80th boom-shareCincinnati88th quality · 15th boom-shareIndiana85th quality · 18th boom-shareNorth Texas99th quality · 1st boom-shareColorado15th quality · 86th boom-shareGeorgia Tech30th quality · 70th boom-shareBoise State96th quality · 4th boom-shareOregon28th quality · 72nd boom-shareGeorgia State77th quality · 36th boom-shareAuburn34th quality · 59th boom-shareBaylor36th quality · 63rd boom-shareApp State41st quality · 48th boom-shareUTSA72nd quality · 20th boom-shareArkansas7th quality · 93rd boom-shareIowa52nd quality · 53rd boom-shareNorthern Illinois12th quality · 89th boom-shareTulsa68th quality · 28th boom-shareOklahoma State76th quality · 14th boom-shareDuke74th quality · 8th boom-shareTulane33rd quality · 73rd boom-shareSouthern Miss3rd quality · 97th boom-shareUConn84th quality · 26th boom-shareVanderbilt26th quality · 76th boom-shareAlabama82nd quality · 22nd boom-shareEast Carolina24th quality · 77th boom-sharePurdue65th quality · 34th boom-shareKansas State48th quality · 44th boom-shareVirginia Tech66th quality · 33rd boom-shareNorthwestern93rd quality · 6th boom-shareMiddle Tennessee37th quality · 60th boom-shareArizona State20th quality · 83rd boom-shareLSU86th quality · 9th boom-shareClemson10th quality · 92nd boom-shareBYU83rd quality · 17th boom-shareSan Diego State5th quality · 94th boom-shareNew Mexico39th quality · 68th boom-shareCentral Michigan6th quality · 96th boom-shareHawai'i12th quality · 88th boom-shareTexas Tech50th quality · 46th boom-shareMaryland17th quality · 85th boom-shareMichigan25th quality · 71st boom-shareWestern Michigan29th quality · 68th boom-shareOhio67th quality · 43rd boom-shareNebraska59th quality · 32nd boom-sharePenn State47th quality · 48th boom-shareMarshall36th quality · 61st boom-shareLouisville94th quality · 19th boom-shareArkansas State60th quality · 32nd boom-shareArmy95th quality · 10th boom-shareMissouri54th quality · 49th boom-shareBuffalo8th quality · 88th boom-shareLiberty78th quality · 29th boom-shareJames Madison58th quality · 35th boom-shareSMU81st quality · 16th boom-shareTexas State90th quality · 12th boom-shareTexas11th quality · 91st boom-shareMissouri State40th quality · 64th boom-shareTexas A&M16th quality · 78th boom-shareNevada1st quality · 99th boom-shareWest Virginia73rd quality · 24th boom-shareCoastal Carolina49th quality · 57th boom-shareWestern Kentucky4th quality · 96th boom-shareMississippi State35th quality · 65th boom-shareColorado State88th quality · 30th boom-shareWyoming46th quality · 52nd boom-shareSouth Alabama64th quality · 27th boom-shareLouisiana Tech60th quality · 47th boom-shareLouisiana27th quality · 69th boom-shareWashington40th quality · 58th boom-shareTroy8th quality · 92nd boom-shareFlorida Atlantic72nd quality · 25th boom-shareFlorida75th quality · 37th boom-shareUCLA61st quality · 36th boom-shareKentucky71st quality · 21st boom-shareGeorgia92nd quality · 11th boom-shareAir Force76th quality · 3rd boom-shareTennessee45th quality · 42nd boom-shareUtah State0th quality · 100th boom-share
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, competitive snaps only
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamQuality percentileBoom-share percentile
Air Force76th3rd
Akron9th90th
Alabama82nd22nd
App State41st48th
Arizona91st16th
Arizona State20th83rd
Arkansas7th93rd
Arkansas State60th32nd
Army95th10th
Auburn34th59th
BYU83rd17th
Ball State32nd72nd
Baylor36th63rd
Boise State96th4th
Boston College20th80th
Buffalo8th88th
Central Michigan6th96th
Cincinnati88th15th
Clemson10th92nd
Coastal Carolina49th57th
Colorado15th86th
Colorado State88th30th
Delaware63rd40th
Duke74th8th
East Carolina24th77th
Eastern Michigan14th80th
Florida75th37th
Florida Atlantic72nd25th
Florida International2nd98th
Florida State64th44th
Fresno State56th52nd
Georgia92nd11th
Georgia Southern52nd40th
Georgia State77th36th
Georgia Tech30th70th
Hawai'i12th88th
Houston89th2nd
Illinois70th38th
Indiana85th18th
Iowa52nd53rd
Iowa State43rd62nd
Jacksonville State62nd41st
James Madison58th35th
Kansas28th66th
Kansas State48th44th
Kennesaw State23rd79th
Kentucky71st21st
LSU86th9th
Liberty78th29th
Louisiana27th69th
Louisiana Tech60th47th
Louisville94th19th
Marshall36th61st
Maryland17th85th
Massachusetts38th60th
Memphis87th20th
Miami100th0th
Miami (OH)68th31st
Michigan25th71st
Middle Tennessee37th60th
Minnesota4th95th
Mississippi State35th65th
Missouri54th49th
Missouri State40th64th
NC State69th28th
Navy57th51st
Nebraska59th32nd
Nevada1st99th
New Mexico39th68th
North Carolina48th45th
North Dakota State31st64th
North Texas99th1st
Northern Illinois12th89th
Northwestern93rd6th
Notre Dame97th5th
Ohio67th43rd
Ohio State79th23rd
Oklahoma State76th14th
Ole Miss80th8th
Oregon28th72nd
Oregon State92nd13th
Penn State47th48th
Pittsburgh44th50th
Purdue65th34th
Rice18th87th
Rutgers32nd76th
SMU81st16th
San Diego State5th94th
San José State13th84th
South Alabama64th27th
South Carolina55th54th
South Florida42nd56th
Southern Miss3rd97th
Stanford53rd55th
Syracuse24th74th
TCU21st75th
Temple56th56th
Tennessee45th42nd
Texas11th91st
Texas A&M16th78th
Texas State90th12th
Texas Tech50th46th
Toledo84th24th
Troy8th92nd
Tulane33rd73rd
Tulsa68th28th
UAB16th81st
UCF19th82nd
UCLA61st36th
UConn84th26th
UNLV44th67th
USC80th12th
UTSA72nd20th
Utah96th7th
Utah State0th100th
Vanderbilt26th76th
Virginia51st39th
Virginia Tech66th33rd
Wake Forest98th4th
Washington40th58th
West Virginia73rd24th
Western Kentucky4th96th
Western Michigan29th68th
Wisconsin22nd84th
Wyoming46th52nd

South Florida’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 71st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 77th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 71st pctileCompetitive snaps only ·…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does South Florida hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

84th percentile success on standard downs, 57th on passing downs — a 27-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantSouth FloridaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Fragile off scheduleBalancedWeak both waysStandard downs onlySouth FloridaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
Air Force98th23rd
Akron58th34th
Alabama77th57th
App State33rd49th
Arizona76th94th
Arizona State38th61st
Arkansas71st24th
Arkansas State85th59th
Army93rd58th
Auburn14th69th
BYU86th35th
Ball State31st52nd
Baylor15th46th
Boise State77th92nd
Boston College63rd28th
Bowling Green43rd21st
Buffalo9th11th
California11th20th
Central Michigan36th9th
Charlotte18th41st
Cincinnati68th83rd
Clemson7th39th
Coastal Carolina23rd64th
Colorado16th65th
Colorado State66th95th
Delaware59th64th
Duke21st67th
East Carolina37th19th
Eastern Michigan16th30th
Florida61st70th
Florida Atlantic67th87th
Florida International20th53rd
Florida State30th90th
Fresno State25th84th
Gardner-Webb5th23rd
Georgia98th89th
Georgia Southern60th71st
Georgia State68th66th
Georgia Tech53rd40th
Hawai'i48th29th
Houston87th99th
Illinois73rd91st
Indiana55th44th
Iowa79th13th
Iowa State18th31st
Jacksonville State82nd80th
James Madison45th77th
Kansas52nd18th
Kansas State64th68th
Kennesaw State61st16th
Kent State5th21st
Kentucky90th51st
LSU86th98th
Liberty93rd78th
Louisiana36th66th
Louisiana Tech26th79th
Louisville95th72nd
Maine0th86th
Marshall69th32nd
Maryland34th26th
Massachusetts35th38th
Memphis92nd93rd
Mercyhurst2nd34th
Miami99th95th
Miami (OH)50th43rd
Michigan10th89th
Michigan State23rd55th
Middle Tennessee27th64th
Minnesota32nd4th
Mississippi State66th59th
Missouri34th41st
Missouri State52nd30th
NC State62nd77th
Navy89th17th
Nebraska46th85th
Nevada28th27th
New Mexico55th48th
New Mexico State14th36th
Norfolk State7th0th
North Carolina89th73rd
North Dakota State30th45th
North Texas95th84th
Northern Illinois51st14th
Northwestern88th88th
Notre Dame100th43rd
Ohio82nd42nd
Ohio State84th80th
Oklahoma4th50th
Oklahoma State96th86th
Old Dominion1st36th
Ole Miss81st94th
Oregon39th26th
Oregon State97th70th
Penn State20th47th
Pittsburgh65th50th
Purdue57th82nd
Rice59th14th
Robert Morris2nd5th
Rutgers42nd81st
SMU91st82nd
Sacramento State13th6th
Sam Houston11th37th
San Diego State8th54th
San José State17th2nd
South Alabama44th74th
South Carolina70th56th
South Florida84th57th
Southern Miss48th7th
Stanford40th9th
Syracuse57th39th
TCU70th10th
Temple50th68th
Tennessee75th12th
Texas27th61st
Texas A&M46th55th
Texas State74th100th
Texas Tech64th76th
Toledo73rd52nd
Troy39th15th
Tulane12th8th
Tulsa49th7th
UAB24th62nd
UCF29th45th
UCLA80th60th
UConn72nd73rd
UL Monroe47th11th
UNLV41st19th
USC79th97th
UT Martin6th3rd
UTEP9th1st
UTSA91st33rd
Utah94th98th
Utah State3rd76th
Vanderbilt41st32nd
Virginia83rd2nd
Virginia Tech43rd91st
Wake Forest75th96th
Washington56th16th
Washington State19th5th
West Virginia54th75th
Western Kentucky22nd25th
Western Michigan32nd27th
Wisconsin25th22nd
Wyoming78th48th

South Florida by half

1st-half offense ranks 26th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 67th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 26th pctile2nd half · 67th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

How much of South Florida’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.11; 26th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.32 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.

0.380.13-0.12Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.380.13-0.12Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), South Florida’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 169-play sample) — mid-pack, 100 of 136 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), South Florida’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 167-play sample) — mid-pack, 70 of 137 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 273 claims, 273 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=169 short-zone plays, raw rate 70.4%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=167 short-zone plays, raw rate 66.5%
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.179, 72th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.179
72nd
Havoc allowed (O) 0.127
82nd
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.136
93rd
Secondary havoc (D) 0.043
8th
Stuff rate (D) 0.257
94th
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.190
39th
Line yards (O) 3.054
59th
Line yards allowed (D) 2.445
91st
Standard-downs success (O) 0.516
79th
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.434
66th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.329
63rd
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.301
45th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

Recovering 20% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~52% league rate.

1 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 9 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 9% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.

2 interceptions of 22 disrupted passes (20 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

Winning the penalty battle: 39 penalties committed vs. 46 drawn on opponents, a 78-yard edge.

296 penalty yards committed vs. 374 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank South Florida

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#66

+2.2

SP+

#63

+2.2

FPI

#75

-2.2

Elo

#41

1638

SRS

#76

-1.6

The national models put South Florida between 41st and 76th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 66th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · South Florida

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Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site