cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Alvon Isaac /South Florida

Alvon Isaac

RB · South Florida · So · #10

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

350 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 73 CARRIES

IN PORTALIn transfer portal — destination TBD (from South Florida)

In Portal · 2026

In transfer portal

2025South Florida
DestinationTBD

RB · SOUTH FLORIDA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Alvon Isaac

  • 2
  • #10
  • 5-9 | 185 lb
  • Hawthorne, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

38

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 45th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#4141

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1565 national
CFB
College
South Florida
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class2
Jersey10
Measurements5-9 | 185 lb
HometownHawthorne, FL
Primary teamSouth Florida

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1565 recruit
Composite rating 0.8500 HighSchool
Signed with South Florida 2024
Origin Hawthorne Hawthorne, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2024 3-star | 0.8500 No. 1565 recruit | HighSchool | South Florida

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination -- 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Withdrawn Jan 4, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 South Florida -> -- 3-star | 0.8500 | Withdrawn

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#4141Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#4401Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to South Florida

Composite

0.8500

#1565 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Alvon Isaac

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmRivals: 2 mentions · belief +0 · "The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found [here]( https://www.r"Rivals
  • Rivals · n=2

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Alvon Isaac

Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

final
Through 13g
350Rush yards
73Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
26.9Rush yards
6Carries
0Rush TDs
Final
350Rush yards
73Carries
0Rush TDs

Why this is more than a rushing profile

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Alvon Isaac is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 350 rushing yards, 12 catches, and 350 return yards for South Florida. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.

Current place #4141 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 9.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc 350 return yds

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 470 350 rush | 120 rec | #233/735 (68th pct)
Rush TD 0 73 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 4.8 Per-rush efficiency | #326/735 (56th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
73 69th
YDS
350 68th
YPC
4.8 56th
TD
0 40th

Receiving

REC
12 68th
YDS
120 76th
YPR
10.0 78th
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 34-7vs Boise State35217.3049
Wk 2W 18-16@ Florida5367.2022
Wk 3L 12-49@ Miami6203.309
Wk 4W 63-14vs South Carolina State7131.905
Wk 6W 54-26vs Charlotte22110.5011
Wk 7W 63-36@ North Texas12645.3011Season-high 64 yds
Wk 8W 48-13vs Florida Atlantic8192.405
Wk 9L 31-34@ Memphis3113.709
Wk 11W 55-23vs UTSA5142.8011
Wk 12L 38-41@ Navy7324.6016
Wk 13W 48-18@ UAB252.503
Wk 14W 52-3vs Rice6223.708
BowlL 10-24vs Old Dominion7415.9012
Total733505.5049
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025South Florida9-4HC: Alex Golesh · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025South Florida733504.80--
Career1 loaded season733504.80--
SeasonTeam
2025South Florida1212010.00--
Career1 loaded season1212010.00--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 12 120 rec yds | #180/552 (68th pct)
Usage 9.5% 15.0% rush share | #332/738 (55th pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.03 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #325/362 (10th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 350 #233/735 68th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 4.8 #326/735 56th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 12 #180/552 68th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 120 #131/548 76th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.03 #325/362 10th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 66 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 9.5% #332/738 55th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 73 #233/739 69th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 49 #173/733 77th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 29 #133/540 76th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 10.0 #121/548 78th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Returns Kick return yards 224 #32/200 84th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Returns Punt return yards 126 #6/27 81st pct Volumevs FBS RB
Returns Kick return avg 22.4 #49/199 76th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Returns Punt return avg 21.0 #5/27 85th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Returns Kick returns 10 #31/206 85th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Returns Punt returns 6 #10/29 69th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 15.0% #349/738 53rd pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 11.1% #314/738 58th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 10.7% #316/738 57th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 10.4% #340/738 54th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 7.1% #334/738 55th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 5.6% #417/738 44th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 3.2% #287/738 61st pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #78/256 70th pct Turnoversvs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home7g26.06.40.0
Road6g28.04.40.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins9g27.36.00.0
Losses4g26.04.40.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-77g35.37.30.0
Weeks 8+6g17.23.30.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

38Mid-pack
8 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: rush tds (3rd).

Rec yards#122 / 338 · 64th pct
120rece
Long run#154 / 349 · 55th pct
49rush
Receptions#166 / 338 · 49th pct
12rece
Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct
1fumb
Yards / carry#189 / 349 · 45th pct
4.8rush
Rush yards#233 / 349 · 33rd pct
350rush
Carries#233 / 349 · 33rd pct
73rush
Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.03Below (<p25) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Alvon IsaacSouth FloridaTae MeadowsTroy· 65% simRashod DubinionApp State· 64% simKamari MoultonIowa· 62% sim
Rec yards
64
Isaac
38
Meadows
77
Dubinion
53
Moulton
Long run
55
Isaac
53
Meadows
39
Dubinion
33
Moulton
Receptions
49
Isaac
45
Meadows
86
Dubinion
63
Moulton
Fumbles lost
49
Isaac
49
Meadows
14
Dubinion
Yards / carry
45
Isaac
29
Meadows
53
Dubinion
62
Moulton
Rush yards
33
Isaac
74
Meadows
84
Dubinion
84
Moulton
Carries
33
Isaac
84
Meadows
87
Dubinion
86
Moulton
Rush TDs
3
Isaac
72
Meadows
50
Dubinion
62
Moulton

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Patrick Smith’s 2022 season.

Patrick Smith

68%match

Vanderbilt · 2022

#2

Cam Davis

San Diego State · 2022

66%
#3

Clay Ash

West Virginia · 2025

67%
#4

Jocquez Smith

Temple · 2023

62%
#5

Jordan Houston

NC State · 2022

65%

Matches Patrick on

Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
Yards / carry

Differs from Patrick on

Yards / reception (higher)

Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Rickey Spruill’s path through Wagner.

Rickey Spruill

100%match

Wagner · 2024

#2

Justin Henderson

Louisiana Tech · 2020

All-Conference USA
100%
#3

Ryan Ingram

Chattanooga · 2025

100%
#4

Bryant Barr

Campbell · 2020

96%
#5

Travis Theis

South Dakota · 2024

95%

Matches Rickey on

Yards per carry

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Clay Ash's sophomore season at West Virginia (2025).

Clay Ash

69%match

West Virginia · 2025

#2

Patrick Smith

Vanderbilt · 2022

69%
#3

Duke Watson

Louisville · 2025

66%
#4

Diore Hubbard

West Virginia · 2025

66%
#5

DJ Butler

Houston · 2025

65%

Matches Clay on

Total rush EPA (college ability)
Yards / carry

Differs from Clay on

Yards / reception (higher)
Receiving share (lower)
Weight (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Alex Golesh

Pass share

44.8%

404 pass / 498 run

Plays / game

69.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.8%

291 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Alex Golesh
South Florida

Played his entire career under Alex Golesh.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownHawthorne, FL
Height5'9"
Weight185 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey10

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 South Florida RB2 #4141 #4401 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 South Florida American Athletic RB 2 No. 10 | 5-9 | 185 lb | Hawthorne, FL
2024 South Florida American Athletic RB 2 No. 10 | 5-9 | 185 lb | Hawthorne, FL