Next game: vs UTSA
UTSA’s best edge on Florida Atlantic is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Florida Atlantic offense against UTSA defense
UTSA offense against Florida Atlantic defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.29 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 226 / 315 | 71.7 | 2534 #4 FBS | 8.0 | 23 #5 FBS | 5 | 160.2 | 57 | 65.0 | 8.1 | 4.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket surgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. Impact starter — 315 pass attempts and 41 carries in 8 games, more passes and runs a game than nearly every FBS quarterback who plays every week. The rare part: he puts it wherever he wants — and the offense moves when he drops back, too This week's matchup — QB Veltkamp picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Hayes is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Completion %71.8% 93th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Total pass EPA (college ability)111.8 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caden Veltkamp's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.53 EPA/play | 18 | 4 | 7 / 13 | 53.8 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 104.9 | — | 32.7 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 91 | 369 | 4.1 | 2 | 39 | 12.1 | 6.6 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 91 carries and 7 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Ervin does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jones is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry4.2 bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.2% bottom 19th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ethan Ervin's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.16 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 76 | 353 | 4.6 | 2 | 19 | 13.2 | 10.5 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 76 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Leonard Farrow's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.43 EPA/play | 22 | 6 | 29 | 123 | 4.2 | 1 | 22 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.35 EPA/play | 28 | 6 | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 | 21 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.68 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 72 | 891 #5 FBS | 12.4 | 9 #5 FBS | 76 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 72 catches, 3 carries and 2 pass attempts in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Messer wins underneath on volume and route precision. Ross is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume72 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)63.5 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Easton Messer's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.56 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 60 | 752 #15 FBS | 12.5 | 6 #23 FBS | 55 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 60 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Valsin wins underneath on volume and route precision. Ross is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume60 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)46.9 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kelby Valsin's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.46 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 39 | 440 | 11.3 | 3 | 36 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 39 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Henry wins underneath on volume and route precision. Ross is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume39 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Dom Henry's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.29 EPA/play | — | 5 | 13 | 152 | 11.7 | 2 | 30 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. This week's matchup — WR Hoch wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Ross is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate15.4% 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Branden Hoch's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.93 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 8 | 112 | 14 | 1 | 26 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 1 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 1 | 13 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception5.4 bottom 7th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume8 bottom 16th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Antonio Johnson's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 98 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 29 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Blake Burris's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 2 | 8 | 22 | 8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Wilky Denaud's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 1 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cecil Doggette Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 13 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Earl Miller Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 62 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Enyce Sledge's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 8 | 56 | 26 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 56 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Joseph Sipp Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 38 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume38 50th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Leon Hart Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 21 | 7 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nate Fischer's full player page | |||||||||
| 7 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 43 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 22 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume32 52th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jayden Sweeney's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Damon Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.4% bottom 48th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bo Simpson-Nealy's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 27 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Travis Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jonathan Bax's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 10 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 2 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Josh Roberts's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ahlston Ware's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jay Crable's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cover corner· Takeaway threatSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chris Tooley III's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 26 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 41 | 8 | 9/13 | 69.2 | 39/39 | 66 | 60 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 7 | 21 | 852 | 40.6 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.16 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 11 | 410 | 37.3 | 2 | 98 |
| Slot Technician · +0.46 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 6 | 141 | 23.5 | 0 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.68 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 7 | 213 | 30.4 | 2 | 82 |
Biggest plays from Florida Atlantic’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Florida Atlantic’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 1:40 · North Texas breaks the tieJahiem White runs 59 yards for a touchdownFlorida Atlantic at North Texas, week 9Q2, 1:40 · North Texas 24, Florida Atlantic 175959-yard touchdown run5959-yard touchdown run59-yard touchdown runJ.White rush middle for 59 yards gain to the FAU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 8:26 · Florida Atlantic down 10Caden Veltkamp finds Easton Messer for a 34-yard touchdownFlorida Atlantic at North Texas, week 9Q4, 8:26 · Florida Atlantic 38, North Texas 41Florida Atlantic cut the deficit to 3 in the fourth quarterFlorida Atlantic cut the deficit to 3 in the fourth quarterC.Veltkamp pass complete deep right to E.Messer caught at UNT06, for 34 yards to the UNT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q2, 0:16 · North Texas tiedJ. White fumbles and Florida Atlantic recoversFlorida Atlantic at North Texas, week 9Q2, 0:16 · North Texas 24, Florida Atlantic 24▼8%North Texas’s chance to win, 90% to 82%▼8%North Texas’s chance to win, 90% to 82%T.Jackson pass complete short right to J.White caught at FAU49, for 13 yards to the FAU34 fumbled by J.White at FAU36 forced by T.Jackson recovered by FAU T.Luman at FAU34, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 8:30 · Florida Atlantic breaks the tieCaden Veltkamp finds Easton Messer for a 27-yard touchdownFlorida Atlantic at North Texas, week 9Q2, 8:30 · Florida Atlantic 17, North Texas 10Florida Atlantic took the lead in the second quarterFlorida Atlantic took the lead in the second quarterC.Veltkamp pass complete deep left to E.Messer caught at UNT00, for 27 yards to the UNT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 4:01 · Florida Atlantic down 10Caden Veltkamp finds Kaden Shields-Dutton for a 22-yard touchdownFlorida Atlantic at North Texas, week 9Q3, 4:01 · Florida Atlantic 31, North Texas 34Florida Atlantic cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterFlorida Atlantic cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterC.Veltkamp pass complete short middle to K.Shields-Dutton caught at UNT19, for 22 yards to the UNT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 4:02 · North Texas up 3Tayven Jackson finds Kyle Koch for a 2-yard touchdownFlorida Atlantic at North Texas, week 9Q4, 4:02 · North Texas 48, Florida Atlantic 38▲7%North Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 98%▲7%North Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 98%T.Jackson pass complete short right to K.Koch caught at FAU00, for 2 yards to the FAU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Florida Atlantic lost at North Texas after being 77% to win; the closest win was against Rice, down to 12%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Florida Atlantic during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Florida Atlantic
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Florida AtlanticEaston Messer leads Florida Atlantic with 891 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: who's gone and who's back
How they play
Florida Atlantic fields a strong pass-first offense behind a porous defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Florida Atlantic reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 21%) and passing EPA (top 21%); the crux lives in EPA allowed, where Florida Atlantic sits at the 1st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 52nd percentile of 133 programs
57% at home, 28% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (25-19 home, 14-36 away). Interval ±4.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Florida Atlantic has beaten the number by +1.4 more at home than away over 102 games. That is inside the ±6.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
FAU Stadium seats 29,419 and has averaged 66% full (19,297, 27 games reported). Visitors face the 6th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 822 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (29 of 111 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downEaston Messer is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatJayshon Platt is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Ethan Ervin and Leonard Farrow split the carries (91/167 vs 76/167) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Easton Messer (WR) and Antonio Johnson (TE) split the targets (83/94 vs 11/94) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Florida Atlantic actually scores
72nd percentile quality, 25th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Florida Atlantic’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 33rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 34th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Florida Atlantic hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
67th percentile success on standard downs, 87th on passing downs — a 20-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Florida Atlantic by half
1st-half offense ranks 68th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 65th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Florida Atlantic’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.21; 80th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 7: 0.21 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Florida Atlantic’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Florida Atlantic’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (71.3% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 289-play sample) — mid-pack, 126 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Florida Atlantic’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 153-play sample) — mid-pack, 34 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 62% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
5 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 27% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
6 interceptions of 22 disrupted passes (16 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 58 penalties committed vs. 53 drawn on opponents, 45 yards behind.
472 penalty yards committed vs. 427 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Florida Atlantic
Most similar programs · Florida AtlanticReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Usual during the game around Nov 5: 77°, between 71° and 81° in about 7 in 10 games (34 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 69°, and 8 in 10 ran between 47° and 81° (52 of 58 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.