Florida Atlantic beats Rice 51-49
Team pages: Rice · Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic beat Rice 51-49. Share this game
We had Florida Atlantic favored. It won.
Next: Rice at North Texas, Sat Nov 7
Next: Florida Atlantic at North Texas, Thu Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET · Florida Atlantic underdog by 13.5
How it swung
The turning point: Ochoa 55-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 13:33). Florida Atlantic went from 80% to 58% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida Atlantic a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida Atlantic was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
Florida Atlantic came back from 14 down, at one point just a 28% chance in the first quarter.
Rice led by 14, was as high as 72% in the first quarter, and still lost.
Florida Atlantic · Q2 13:2423 unansweredFlorida Atlantic · Q2 9:19Punt return TDFlorida Atlantic · Q4 3:37Florida Atlantic 51-49 Rice
Florida Atlantic wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Rice 49-51 Florida AtlanticRice lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:33Ochoa 55-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0Florida Atlantic 80% → 58% (−22)
- 2Q4 3:37Special teamspunt 50 yards to the FAU18 E.Messer return 82 yards to the end zone touchdownFlorida Atlantic 74% → 96% (+22)
- 3Q4 2:51Ochoa 71-yd TD pass to Walker, cuts it to 51-49Florida Atlantic 96% → 74% (−22)
- 4Q4 0:50Ochoa incomplete to MoseyFlorida Atlantic 55% → 76% (+21)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:33Ochoa 55-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0Rice 20% → 42% (+22)
- 2Q4 3:37Special teamspunt 50 yards to the FAU18 E.Messer return 82 yards to the end zone touchdownRice 26% → 4% (−22)
- 3Q4 2:51Ochoa 71-yd TD pass to Walker, cuts it to 51-49Rice 4% → 26% (+22)
- 4Q4 0:50Ochoa incomplete to MoseyRice 45% → 24% (−21)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida Atlantic -9.5), at 80% for Florida Atlantic (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Florida Atlantic scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Rice on 7 of its 14.
Florida Atlantic’s drives are teal, Rice’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Rice’s side
Rice’s best moment: Ochoa 55-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 13:33). It lifted Rice’s win chance by 22 points.
Box score
Florida Atlantic 51, Rice 49
Rice covered +9.5 by 7.5. The total, 100, went over 55.5.
| Team totals | Rice | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 608 | 461 |
| Passing | 4 of 7, 109 yds | 29 of 37, 339 yds |
| Rushing | 51 for 499 yds | 44 for 122 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 29 |
| Third down | 4 of 10 | 7 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 50 yds | 6 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:03 | 30:57 |
Rice leaders
- Passing Gael Ochoa 2 of 5, 80 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Gael Ochoa 12 for 259 yds, 4 TD; Tyvonn Byars 16 for 93 yds
- Receiving Braylen Walker 1 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Clark 2 for 34 yds
Florida Atlantic leaders
- Passing Caden Veltkamp 29 of 37, 339 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Leonard Farrow 17 for 86 yds; Easton Messer 3 for 18 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Easton Messer 12 for 162 yds, 2 TD; Kelby Valsin 7 for 78 yds
No rain through the game
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at FAU Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Boca Raton Airport, 0.6 miles away, and Pompano Beach airport, 9.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Rice · 1-6
Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 152nd now, up 29 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Florida Atlantic · 4-2
Rated 108th in our preseason ratings, 115th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 66-10 vs Texas Southern No. 228 of 668 teams
won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite
Week by week
Florida Atlantic
- Wk 2Wvs Navy38-30
- Wk 3Wvs Florida International16-10
- Wk 4Wat UL Monroe45-17
- Wk 5Wvs Texas Southern66-10
- Wk 7Lat Army24-56
Rice
- Wk 3Lvs Western Michigan21-28
- Wk 4Lat Fresno State24-38
- Wk 5Lvs UTSA14-16
- Wk 6Lat East Carolina12-28
- Wk 7Lvs Tulsa17-38
Power rating by week
Florida Atlantic is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida Atlantic’s EPA/play against Rice, 53 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Rice’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Rice offense, 51st percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 2nd
Florida Atlantic’s EPA/play against Rice’s defense
Florida Atlantic offense, 76th percentile · Rice defense, 23rd
Rice’s rushing EPA against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Rice offense, 48th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 2nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 3-3
6 meetings since 2013 · Florida Atlantic won the last meeting
- 2025Florida Atlantic 27-21
- 2023Rice 24-21
- 2022Florida Atlantic 17-14
- 2016Florida Atlantic 42-25
- 2015Rice 27-26
Each line is Florida Atlantic’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida Atlantic is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Florida Atlantic fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (76th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Florida Atlantic favored by 9.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Florida Atlantic by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Rice.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −10.5 → −9.5 · Total: 58.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.
57% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (25-19 home, 14-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 961 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida Atlantic7th1-1
- Rice14th0-3