Liberty routs Florida International 49-10
Team pages: Florida International · Liberty
Liberty routed Florida International 49-10. Share this game
We had Liberty favored. It won.
Next: Florida International vs Missouri State, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET · Florida International favored by 4.5
Next: Liberty at New Mexico State, Sat Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET · Liberty favored by 16.5
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.
Liberty 49-10 Florida International
Liberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida International 10-49 LibertyFlorida International lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Liberty -13.5), at 87% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Liberty scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Florida International on 2 of its 11.
Liberty’s drives are teal, Florida International’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Liberty’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 6%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Florida International plays vs Missouri State on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to win the conference. Liberty plays at New Mexico State on Sat Nov 7 with a 6% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Liberty 49, Florida International 10
Liberty covered −13.5 by 25.5. The total, 59, went over 45.5.
| Team totals | Florida International | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 210 | 391 |
| Passing | 22 of 31, 176 yds | 18 of 23, 246 yds |
| Rushing | 23 for 34 yds | 35 for 145 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 24 |
| Third down | 2 of 10 | 5 of 8 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 8 for 75 yds | 6 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:46 | 29:14 |
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 21 of 28, 164 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Devonte Lyons 10 for 52 yds; Jayden Ford 2 for 14 yds
- Receiving Kyle Mcneal 6 for 56 yds; Maguire Anderson 5 for 28 yds
Liberty leaders
- Passing Deshawn Purdie 16 of 19, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Kanye Udoh 5 for 31 yds, 1 TD; Deshawn Purdie 4 for 24 yds
- Receiving Makai Jackson 6 for 86 yds; Kelsey Johnson 1 for 31 yds
No rain and calm
64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 9
October game-day temperatures at Williams Stadium (VA)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Lynchburg/p. Glenn airport, 2.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Florida International · 3-4
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 122nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Liberty · 6-1
Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 45th now, up 38 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Liberty
- Wk 3Wvs Ball State51-15
- Wk 4Wat Coastal Carolina34-17
- Wk 5Wat Delaware30-14
- Wk 6Wvs Sam Houston35-3
- Wk 8Wat Kennesaw State34-6
Florida International
- Wk 3Lat Florida Atlantic10-16
- Wk 4Wvs Long Island University20-3
- Wk 6Wvs New Mexico State22-3
- Wk 7Lat Jacksonville State24-27
- Wk 8Lvs Middle Tennessee23-26
Power rating by week
Liberty is rated 7.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s EPA/play against Liberty, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida International’s EPA/play against Liberty’s defense
Florida International offense, 21st percentile · Liberty defense, 89th
Florida International’s passing EPA against Liberty’s defense
Florida International offense, 26th percentile · Liberty defense, 90th
Liberty’s explosive plays against Florida International’s defense
Liberty offense, 20th percentile · Florida International defense, 64th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Liberty leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2020 · Florida International won the last meeting
- 2025Florida International 34-27
- 2024Liberty 31-24
- 2023Liberty 38-6
- 2020Liberty 36-34
Each line is Liberty’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Liberty fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Liberty favored by 13.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Liberty by 13.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Liberty.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −11.5 → −13.5 · Total: 44.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Liberty is worth +4.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 57th percentile.
77% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (33-10 home, 25-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 805 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Liberty 31, Florida International 24Oct 8, 2024
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Liberty2nd3-0
- Florida International8th1-2