Dan Mullen

Head coach · UNLV
2nd season · since 2025 · Florida before

At UNLV15-7since 2025 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 101st of 132 jobsLast gameW 31-24vs Northern Illinois · Nov 1Nextvs WyomingSat Nov 7 · 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianMississippi StateFloridaUNLVOle MissOle MissGeorgiaGeorgiaDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelMississippi State when he took over: 18.8 (Regional Program II), its final 2008 readingMississippi State, 2009: 5-7, Regional Program IIMississippi State, 2009: 5-7, Regional Program II2009Mississippi State, 2010: 9-4, National Program IIIMississippi State, 2011: 7-6, National Program IIIMississippi State, 2012: 8-5, National Program IIMississippi State, 2013: 7-6, National Program IIMississippi State, 2014: 10-3, National Program IMississippi State, 2015: 9-4, National Program IMississippi State, 2016: 6-7, National Program IMississippi State, 2017: 8-4, National Program IMississippi State, 2017: 8-4, National Program I2017+22.2Florida when he took over: 59.5 (Power Program I), its final 2017 readingFlorida, 2018: 10-3, Power Program IFlorida, 2018: 10-3, Power Program I2018Florida, 2019: 11-2, Blue BloodFlorida, 2020: 8-4, Power Program IFlorida, 2021: 5-6, Power Program IFlorida, 2021: 5-6, Power Program I2021+2.7UNLV when he took over: 17.0 (Regional Program III), its final 2024 readingUNLV, 2025: 10-4, Regional Program IIIUNLV, 2025: 10-4, Regional Program III2025UNLV, 2026: 5-3, Regional Program IIUNLV, 2026: 5-3, Regional Program II2026+2.1best: 2019gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 7-4

Mississippi State’10W’11W’12L’13W’14L’15W’16WFlorida’18W’19W’20LUNLV’25L

Show all 11 games
Mississippi State2010Gator BowlW 52-142011Music City BowlW 23-172012Gator BowlL 20-342013Liberty BowlW 44-72014Orange BowlL 34-492015Belk BowlW 51-282016St. Petersburg BowlW 17-16Florida2018Peach BowlW 41-152019Orange BowlW 36-282020Cotton Bowl ClassicL 20-55UNLV2025Frisco BowlL 10-17

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-24 vs. Northern Illinois Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextvs. Wyoming Sat Nov 7
  • Stature93rd of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: vs. Wyoming

Sat Nov 7, 10:30 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Wyoming is 5-3 · Mullen vs. Jay Sawvel: 1-0 · UNLV’s chance to win: 61% (the site’s model)

A few stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4

Offense: 76th of 138 per play. Defense: 59th.

Offense, per play76thOffense, staying on schedule124thDefense, per play59thDefense, opponents' starting field position24thWorstBest
Offense, per play76th of 138Offense, staying on schedule124th of 138Defense, per play59th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position24th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UNLV. The other two rows are where UNLV stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Wyoming (5-3)CBS Sports Network61%
  2. Sat Nov 14at New Mexico (7-1)The CW22%
  3. Sat Nov 21at San José State (4-5)CBS Sports Network58%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Nevada (3-5)CBS Sports Network72%

Percent: UNLV’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where UNLV stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

86th92nd98thPreseason93rdMemphis L 21-27Memphis L 21-27L 21-27Memphis93rdHawai'i W 21-6Hawai'i W 21-6W 21-6Hawai'i93rdNorth Texas L 6-44North Texas L 6-44L 6-44North Texas93rdAkron W 38-10Akron W 38-10W 38-10Akron93rdCalifornia W 39-31California W 39-31W 39-31California92ndNorth Dakota State W 13-7North Dakota State W 13-7W 13-7North Dakota …92ndAir Force L 31-41Air Force L 31-41L 31-41Air Force92ndNorthern Illinois W 31-24Northern Illinois W 31-24W 31-24Northern Illi…92ndBye92nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-24 vs. Northern Illinois3 headlines · 70th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25No game3 headlines · 72nd of 138‘It’s a tragedy’: Dan Mullen unhappy with NCAA over eligibility case Las Vegas Review-Journal
  3. Oct 12–18L 31-41 at Air Force1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 13-7 vs. North Dakota State1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 39-31 vs. California0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 38-10 at Akron1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from UNLV’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

12%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobNoticed14th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 5-3, outscoring opponents by 1.2 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    A Group of Five program · 33rd percentile of FBS in program stature last season
  • ▲ Higher
    10-4 over his previous season here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.