Next game: vs Nebraska
Nebraska’s best edge on Illinois is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Illinois offense against Nebraska defense
Nebraska offense against Illinois defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.34 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 140 / 216 | 64.8 | 1663 #59 FBS | 7.7 | 13 #41 FBS | 5 | 144.7 | 63 | 73.7 | 7.5 | 2.7 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — 216 pass attempts and 32 carries in 7 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Houser extends plays on the move until something opens up. Dieffenbach is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage12.9% bottom 19th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like View Katin Houser's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.08 EPA/play | 7 | 2 | 17 / 26 | 65.4 | 172 | 6.6 | 4 | 0 | 171.7 | — | 36.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.19 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 89 | 560 #62 FBS | 6.3 | 2 | 77 | 10.1 | 12.4 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 89 carries and 10 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Aidan Laughery's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.08 EPA/play | 5 | 5 | 50 | 225 | 4.5 | 1 | 51 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 50 carries and 3 catches in 5 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Ca'Lil Valentine's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.31 EPA/play | 24 | 5 | 25 | 183 | 7.3 | 2 | 64 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.14 EPA/play | 23 | 7 | 38 | 175 | 4.6 | 2 | 33 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.82 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 59 | 776 #12 FBS | 13.2 | 10 #4 FBS | 45 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. Impact starter — 59 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Dixon wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Morgan is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt TD rate16.9% 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume59 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Collin Dixon's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 32 | 453 | 14.2 | 1 | 39 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 32 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Clement moves the chains on third down. Morgan is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 59th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate3.1% bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hudson Clement's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.03 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 22 | 198 | 9 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Trimble moves the chains on third down. Morgan is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception10.1 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brayden Trimble's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.97 EPA/play | 10 | 6 | 12 | 164 | 13.7 | 3 | 54 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. This week's matchup — WR Robinson wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Morgan is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt TD rate25.0% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ty Robinson's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.03 EPA/play | 83 | 5 | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 0 | 25 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Feagin shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Loftin is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception7.8 bottom 20th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaden Feagin's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 86 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 | 9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 24 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.5% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume20 bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View William Holmes's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 43 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Joe Barna's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.1% bottom 36th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Carter Janki's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 52 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.9% bottom 21th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Pat Farrell's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 96 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Darrell Prater's full player page | |||||||
| 54 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 8 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 50 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View James Kreutz's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 26 | 8 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Ismael Kante's full player page | |||||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 40 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.1% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ean Rhea's full player page | |||||||||
| 33 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 18 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 55 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume55 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Matthew Bailey's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 6 | 8 | 40 | 8 #13 FBS | 0 | 1 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 40 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaheim Clarke's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Xavier Scott's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Mac Resetich's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 16 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Tanner Heckel's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.3% 77th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jakwon Morris's full player page | |||||||
| 32 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 37 | 8 | 12/15 | 80 | 26/26 | 62 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 7 | 23 | 996 | 43.3 | 55 | 9 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 5 | 108 | 21.6 | 0 | 65 |
Biggest plays from Illinois’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Illinois’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:17 · Michigan State down 7, ties itJaziun Patterson runs 2 yards for a touchdownIllinois at Michigan State, week 6Q4, 1:17 · Michigan State 31, Illinois 311:17Game-tying touchdown for Michigan State with 1:17 left1:17Game-tying touchdown for Michigan State with 1:17 leftGame-tying touchdown for Michigan State with 1:17 leftJ.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 13:11 · Illinois tiedMessiah Delhomme intercepts Katin Houser and returns it 43 yardsIllinois at Maryland, week 9Q1, 13:11 · Illinois 0, Maryland 0▼18%Illinois’s chance to win, 56% to 38%▼18%Illinois’s chance to win, 56% to 38%K.Houser pass intercepted by M.Delhomme at UMD45 M.Delhomme return 43 yards to the ILL12 (K.Feagin)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 2:29 · Illinois up 4Michael Clayton II finds Collin Dixon for a 23-yard touchdownOregon at Illinois, week 8Q4, 2:29 · Illinois 21, Oregon 10▲17%Illinois’s chance to win, 76% to 93%▲17%Illinois’s chance to win, 76% to 93%M.Clayton II pass complete deep left to C.Dixon caught at ORE00, for 23 yards to the ORE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 9:22 · Illinois down 3, takes the leadMichael Clayton II finds Christian Abney for a 9-yard touchdownOregon at Illinois, week 8Q3, 9:22 · Illinois 14, Oregon 10Go-ahead score for Illinois in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Illinois in the third quarterM.Clayton II pass complete short right to C.Abney caught at ORE04, for 9 yards to the ORE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 0:21 · Illinois down 13Katin Houser finds Collin Dixon for a 7-yard touchdownPurdue at Illinois, week 5Q2, 0:21 · Illinois 7, Purdue 13Illinois answered right backIllinois answered right backK.Houser pass complete short right to C.Dixon caught at PUR00, for 7 yards to the PUR00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 7:21 · Illinois down 4Evan Smith intercepts Katin Houser and returns it 19 yardsDuke at Illinois, week 2Q4, 7:21 · Illinois 27, Duke 31▼13%Illinois’s chance to win, 47% to 34%▼13%Illinois’s chance to win, 47% to 34%K.Houser pass intercepted by E.Smith at DUKE36 E.Smith return 19 yards to the ILL45, out of bounds at ILL45▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Illinois lost to Duke after being 85% to win; the closest win was at Maryland, down to 16%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Illinois during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Illinois
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · IllinoisCollin Dixon leads Illinois with 776 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Illinois fields an elite offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Illinois reads strongest in success rate (top 17%) and rushing EPA (top 18%); the crux lives in EPA allowed, where Illinois sits at the 9th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Illinois is worth +3.1 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile of 133 programs
53% at home, 45% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (27-24 home, 19-23 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Illinois has beaten the number by −2.5 more at home than away over 97 games. That is inside the ±6.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) seats 60,670 and has averaged 87% full (52,565, 31 games reported). Visitors cover a median 299 miles to get here since 2018 — 35th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 7% of the 2026 roster (8 of 108 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogHank Beatty produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Money downHudson Clement is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatCollin Dixon is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatHank Beatty is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatHudson Clement is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatJustin Bowick is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Garbage timeKaden Feagin sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Collin Dixon (WR) and Kaden Feagin (TE) split the targets (72/87 vs 15/87) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Illinois actually scores
70th percentile quality, 38th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Illinois’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 46th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 32nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Illinois hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
73rd percentile success on standard downs, 91st on passing downs — a 18-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Illinois by half
1st-half offense ranks 83rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 40th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Illinois’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.24; 82nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.53 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Illinois’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Illinois’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.6% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 205-play sample) — mid-pack, 95 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Illinois’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 178-play sample) — mid-pack, 132 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 60% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
3 of 5 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Deflections without payoff: 10% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
3 interceptions of 29 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 54 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 33 committed, 162 yards to the good.
280 penalty yards committed vs. 442 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Illinois
Most similar programs · IllinoisReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Illinois’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), Champaign, IL
Usual during the game around Nov 6: 51°, between 37° and 64° in about 7 in 10 games (33 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 52°, and 8 in 10 ran between 38° and 74° (48 of 49 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.