Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-23vs UAB | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 2 | L 27-31vs Duke | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 12 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 |
#7
Matthew Bailey
Senior defensive back on Illinois's 2026 roster.
6′2″ · 225 lb · Moline, IL · Moline
CFB Index 58 · #201 of 544 safetiesLow confidenceReturning to Illinois for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
Recruiting
3★
S recruit
No. 1774 nationally · Signed with Illinois
No college snaps yet.
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
4 defensive back on Illinois's 2026 roster.
- Signed as a 3-star recruit to Illinois in 2022.
Buzz vs Tape
Fans warmer than rivals
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
30.4own fans
0rival fans
Illinois football just got the best possible news in the middle of transfer portal chaos: Xavier Scott is returning for the 2026 season , and that changes the entire outlook for the Illini defense. With Scott back alongside Matthew Bailey…
Also worth knowing:
Matthew Bailey
Plays like an extra linebacker near the line. He has spent five seasons in the Illinois secondary. The receipt on tape: 8 tackles against UAB, Week 1, 2026.
12 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
- season totals
- positional archetype classification
- seasons on the roster
- game log
His career
He was on the field for 5 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.
20227 games
- Signed with Illinois3-star out of Moline
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Illinois
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
1 coach2022–2026
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
5 seasons under Bret Bielema — 33-20 over that span.
2022Illinois8-5HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2026Illinois1-1HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced, slow tempo
Where this defender ranks vs the field
Box-score production percentiles vs the position cohort
Medium confidence
Elite: qb hurries (83rd percentile). Concern: tackles for loss (20th percentile).
Box-score production (6)
Percentiles are versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score production. There are no play-by-play efficiency bars here: CFBD's play-value model credits offensive players only, so no defensive EPA exists to rank.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 6.0 TKL/g, 0.0 TFL/g, 0.0 SACK/g, 0.5 PD/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2025
Impact starter
Tackle volume for the position among the most productive regulars.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Production · CFB Index Score
58 · #201 of 544 safeties
Three-star recruit. Now #201 at the position.
2026 outlook
Outside shot for All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #32 of 77 Big Ten DBs
How the All-Big Ten estimate is computed
15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Career stats
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 42–23
vs UAB
8 TOT · 7 SOLO · 1 PD
With K. Houser — 182 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 98.9 · 29 rush yds (3 car) · 1 TD · C. Valentine — 88 rush yds (11 car) · 1 TD
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.
CFB Index positional classification
2026 Outlook
Illinois
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Illinois
Returning around him
- 3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -7 net (20 in / 27 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #51 · 2026 recruiting class #24
DNA match
Player DNA
Box Safety
Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Daniel Scott’s 2021 season.
87%match
NFL Rd 5
Matches Daniel on
PD rate
TFL rate
Weight
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Kyle Efford's senior season at Georgia Tech (2025).
Matches Kyle on
Class year
Height
Tackle volume
Player DNA
Players who play like Matthew Bailey
Background
Two-Time All-Big Ten Illinois Record - Tackles in a Bowl Game (13) University of Illinois Graduate 2026 - Illinois Team Captain Chuck Bednarik Award Watch List Athlon Preseason All-Big Ten Third Team Phil Steele Preseason All-Big Ten Third Team Lott IMPACT Trophy Watch List 2025 - Illinois 2025 A...
The secondary · Illinois
- #7Matthew Bailey76 tackles · 2025
- #22Deuce Fillmore39 tackles · 2025
- #16Tanner Heckel36 tackles · 2025
- #6Jaheim Clarke30 tackles · 2025
- Mac Resetich19 tackles · 2025
16 more on the roster · Illinois team page
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology