CFB Zeitgeist Score
61
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 73rd percentile.
Matthew Bailey
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
76 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Illinois for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Illinois
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (19 in / 27 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #64 · 2026 recruiting class #45
DB · ILLINOIS · BIG TEN
Matthew Bailey
- 3
- #7
- 6-2 | 215 lb
- Moline, IL
Heisman Heat
#8345
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Illinois
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8304 | No. 1713 recruit | HighSchool | Illinois |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Illinois
Composite
0.8304
#1713 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Matthew Bailey
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Matthew Bailey
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 12g
76Tackles
4Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
6Tackles
0.3Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
82Tackles
4.3Tackles for loss
0Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 76): needs 4/game over remaining 1.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 76): needs 24/game over remaining 1.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Matthew Bailey is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Illinois's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 4.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
76 96th
SOLO
59 99th
TFL
4.0 85th
SACK
0.0 65th
QBH
1 44th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
2 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-3vs Western Illinois | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 45-19@ Duke | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 38-0vs Western Michigan | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | L 10-63@ Indiana | 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 34-32vs USC | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | W 43-27@ Purdue | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 16-34vs Ohio State | 8 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-42@ Washington | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 35-13vs Rutgers | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-6vs Maryland | 10 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 10 tackles |
| Wk 13 | L 10-27@ Wisconsin | 10 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 20-13vs Northwestern | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Total | 76 | 59 | 4.0 | 0.0 | — | 2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Illinois8-5HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 76 | #192/4942 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 4.0 | #738/4972 | 85th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 0.0 | #1762/4972 | 65th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 2 | #792/2184 | 64th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 1 | #1051/1878 | 44th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 59 | #26/4584 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 5.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Losses4g | 8.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 5.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 7.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
61Solid starter
Elite: solo tackles (99th). Strength: tackles (93rd). Concern: sacks (23rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Matthew BaileyIllinoisRobert FitzgeraldNorthwestern· 91% simTy BenefieldBoise State· 91% simBryce LlewellynEastern Michigan· 90% sim
Solo tackles
Tackles
Tackles for loss
Passes defended
QB hurries
Forced fumbles
Sacks
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Box Safety
Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Nate Thompson’s 2022 season.
Nate Thompson
89%match
#2
Chris Edmonds
89%
#3
Beau Freyler
87%
#4
Daniel Scott
NFL Rd 5
86%
#5
Ky'el Hemby
84%
Matches Nate on
Tackle volume
Height
PD rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Kyle Efford's senior season at Georgia Tech (2025).
Kyle Efford
94%match
#2
Koen Entringer
85%
#3
Stone Combs
83%
#4
Kamari Wilson
81%
#5
Edgerrin Cooper
Consensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 2 · Pk 13
81%
Matches Kyle on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Pass share
45.6%
372 pass / 444 run
Plays / game
62.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.0%
292 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2023
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2024
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2025
Bret Bielema
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMoline, IL
Height6'2"
Weight215 lb
Class3
PositionDB
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamIllinois
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.