cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON

Alex Perry

WR · Florida International · Jr · #4

Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22

Alex Perry is a cornerstone for Florida International — measured against the line he joined.

840REC YDS56REC9REC TD

TEAM RECEIVING YARDS LEADER

840

Team leader in receiving yards (840).

Read the story so far

He lines up at WR for Florida International.

On the field, the headline is 840 rec yds, with 56 rec.

How many games until Tar'Varish Dawson Jr. (4★) takes the job from Alex Perry?

The clock is the open loop — and it is already ticking.

WR successioncontinuity
  • Pushed byTar'Varish Dawson Jr. 4★
  • How many games until Tar'Varish Dawson Jr. (4★) takes the job from Alex Perry?
Why nowThe WR job is the open question heading into 2026.
  • season totals
  • Team leader in receiving yards (840).
  • throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Florida International for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Florida International for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Wide receiver · Florida International

Returning around him

  • 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • Transfer portal: -5 net (16 in / 21 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Florida International · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #98 · 2026 recruiting class #90

WR · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · CONFERENCE USA

Alex Perry

  • 3
  • #4
  • 6-5 | 210 lb
  • Port Charlotte, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

86

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 90th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#4638

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2022–2025
19.02022
2772023
8402025

+4321%

Up 4321% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class3
Jersey4
Measurements6-5 | 210 lb
HometownPort Charlotte, FL
Primary teamFlorida International

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#4638Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#4927Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (840).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Alex Perry

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmRivals: 2 mentions · belief +0 · "With the portal period open until January 16th, I figured it'd be a good idea to"Rivals
  • Rivals · n=2

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Alex Perry

Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per reception

15.0

yds

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #104 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 81st

Why it matters

#104 of 531 All FBS WRs at 15.0 yards per reception (56 catches).

Vs cohort

This player 15.0 (81th)

HIGH · n=56 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving yards (total)#51 / 531
  • Receiving TDs#17 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 14 at Sam Houston — 140 ypr

Result W 56-16

The week the volume broke through — put up 140 yds at Sam Houston.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

final
Through 13g
840Rec yards
56Receptions
9Rec TDs
Per game
64.6Rec yards
4Receptions
1Rec TDs
Final
840Rec yards
56Receptions
9Rec TDs

✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 840.

✓ Hit 8 receiving TDs · finished with 9.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Alex Perry's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Florida International, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #4638 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 8.9% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 56 9 rec TD | #86/1110 (92nd pct)
Receiving yards 840 15.0 per catch | #54/1107 (95th pct)
Scrimmage yards 840 Total offensive yardage | #54/1107 (95th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnet

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
56 92nd
YDS
840 95th
YPR
15.0 76th
TD
9 99th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 42-9vs Bethune-Cookman3175.7011
Wk 2L 0-34@ Penn State2157.5013
Wk 3W 38-28vs Florida Atlantic24623.0126
Wk 4L 16-38vs Delaware58416.8147
Wk 6L 10-51@ UConn4328.0011
Wk 8W 25-6@ Western Kentucky38628.7036
Wk 9L 26-45vs Kennesaw State77510.7035
Wk 10L 21-28@ Missouri State35317.7125
Wk 11W 56-30@ Middle Tennessee57114.22202 TD catches
Wk 12W 34-27vs Liberty88811.0136
Wk 13W 27-21vs Jacksonville State410927.3164
Wk 14W 56-16@ Sam Houston714020.0235Season-high 140 yds
BowlL 20-57@ UTSA3248.0014
Total5684015.3964
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Hawai'i3-10HC: Timmy Chang · Pass-leaning
2023Hawai'i5-8HC: Timmy Chang · Pass-heavy
2025Florida International7-6HC: Willie Simmons · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Florida International5684015.09--
2023Hawai'i2427711.53--
2022Hawai'i2199.50--
Career3 loaded seasons821,13613.912--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 8.9% 18.6% pass-game share | #117/1137 (90th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 9 Across offense and returns | #17/1111 (99th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 56 #86/1110 92nd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 840 #54/1107 95th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 9 #17/1111 99th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 15.0 #261/1106 76th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 18.6% #117/1137 90th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 64 #136/1105 88th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 12.6% #109/1137 91st pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 10.9% #189/1137 83rd pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 9.6% #105/1137 91st pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Role share 8.9% #149/1137 87th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 8.0% #148/1137 87th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 5.8% #420/1137 63rd pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.0% #391/1137 66th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home6g4.869.815.80.7
Road7g3.960.114.90.7

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins7g4.679.618.61.0
Losses6g4.047.211.50.3

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-76g3.236.311.50.3
Weeks 8+7g5.388.918.51.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

86All-Conference
5 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rec tds (96th). Strength: rec yards (90th).

Rec TDs#17 / 558 · 97th pct
9rece
Rec yards#54 / 558 · 90th pct
840rece
Receptions#86 / 558 · 85th pct
56rece
Long catch#124 / 558 · 77th pct
64rece
Yards / catch#133 / 558 · 76th pct
15.0rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Alex PerryFlorida InternationalAmare ThomasHouston· 94% simChase HendricksOhio· 93% simChris Brazzell IITennessee· 93% sim
Rec TDs
97
Perry
99
Thomas
92
Hendricks
97
II
Rec yards
90
Perry
95
Thomas
97
Hendricks
97
II
Receptions
85
Perry
95
Thomas
97
Hendricks
91
II
Long catch
77
Perry
77
Thomas
80
Hendricks
86
II
Yards / catch
76
Perry
70
Thomas
72
Hendricks
87
II

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Jump-Ball Target

Wins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons.

WR

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Donaven McCulley’s 2023 season.

Donaven McCulley

85%match

Indiana · 2023

#2

Caleb Douglas

Texas Tech · 2025

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 11
78%
#3

Chase Roberts

BYU · 2025

76%
#4

Jerand Bradley

Texas Tech · 2022

75%
#5

Chase Roberts

BYU · 2023

73%

Matches Donaven on

Yards / reception
Weight
Class year

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Darien Chase’s path through Portland State.

Darien Chase

99%match

Portland State · 2021

#2

Tamorrion Terry

Florida State · 2020

All-ACC
99%
#3

Jarrod Barnes

Central Arkansas · 2023

99%
#4

Kobe Clark

Abilene Christian · 2022

98%
#5

Quintin Morris

Bowling Green · 2020

All-MAC
98%

Matches Darien on

Yards per reception

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Denzel Boston's senior season at Washington (2025).

Denzel Boston

72%match

Washington · 2025

All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 7
#2

Caleb Douglas

Texas Tech · 2025

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 11
69%
#3

Chase Roberts

BYU · 2025

67%
#4

Devaughn Vele

Utah · 2023

NFL Rd 7
61%
#5

Troy Omeire

UNLV · 2025

60%

Matches Denzel on

TD rate
Reception volume
Height

Differs from Denzel on

EPA / play (adj) (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Willie Simmons

Pass share

47.3%

428 pass / 476 run

Plays / game

69.5

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.9%

290 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

2 coaches
2022
Mike MacIntyre
Florida International
2023
Mike MacIntyre
Florida International
2025
Willie Simmons
Florida International
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Mike MacIntyre → Willie Simmons. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownPort Charlotte, FL
Height6'5"
Weight210 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey4

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Hawai'i WR3 #4638 #4927 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Mountain West
2023 Hawai'i WR3 #2012 #2778 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mountain West
2022 Hawai'i WR3 #4807 #5458 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Florida International Conference USA WR 3 No. 4 | 6-5 | 210 lb | Port Charlotte, FL
2024 Hawai'i Mountain West WR 3 No. 4 | 6-5 | 210 lb | Port Charlotte, FL
2023 Hawai'i Mountain West WR 3 No. 4 | 6-5 | 210 lb | Port Charlotte, FL
2022 Hawai'i Mountain West WR 3 No. 4 | 6-5 | 210 lb | Port Charlotte, FL