Maryland at Purdue
Purdue (3‑5) hosts Maryland (2‑6). The market has Purdue favored by 6. Maryland’s offense is at the 53rd percentile on explosive plays; Purdue’s defense is at the 4th.
How they got here
Last three games
Maryland · 2-6
Rated 76th in our preseason ratings, 113th now, down 37 spots.
Three straight losses.
L 17-20 vs Illinois No. 71 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog
Last three games
Purdue · 3-5
Rated 119th in our preseason ratings, 93rd now, up 26 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 28-point win over Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Maryland’s explosive plays against Purdue, 49 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Maryland’s explosive plays against Purdue’s defense
Maryland offense, 53rd percentile · Purdue defense, 4th
Purdue’s passing EPA against Maryland’s defense
Purdue offense, 71st percentile · Maryland defense, 39th
Purdue’s EPA/play against Maryland’s defense
Purdue offense, 57th percentile · Maryland defense, 28th
What’s at stake
Maryland
- Maryland hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
Purdue
- Purdue needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 24% to get there with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Barry Odom is ahead of Ryan Walters’s year-2 pace (3-5 vs. 1-7) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2006 · Purdue has won the last 2
- 2022Purdue 31-29
- 2019Purdue 40-14
- 2016Maryland 50-7
- 2006 · neutral siteMaryland 24-7
Each line is Purdue’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Maryland
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase watches the same DMV recruits it should own get pulled away by Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan, then sees those programs run the league — the sense that Maryland is a supplier to the powers it's supposed to be competing with.
What this game touches
The Big Ten weight. Since leaving the ACC for the Big Ten in 2014, Maryland has mostly lived in the league's lower half. 2025 bottomed out at 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) in Mike Locksley's seventh year — a season that asked whether the program can ever be more than a recruiting feeder for the conference's heavyweights.
Purdue
The chip · vs big brotherIndiana spent a century as the easy in-state laughingstock — until the Hoosiers surged and Purdue cratered, and the Old Oaken Bucket started living on the wrong side of West Lafayette. The fanbase wants the rivalry's natural order restored before it becomes a permanent humbling.
What this game touches
Back-to-back two-win bottom. Purdue went 1-11 in 2024 and fired Ryan Walters, then hired Barry Odom from UNLV — and the first rebuild year produced another 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten), the program's two wins coming over Ball State and an FCS opponent. Two straight winless conference seasons left a once-respectable Big Ten program scraping the floor.
Best players
Maryland
- Chris Durr Jr. (WR) · 638 receiving yards
- Daniel Wingate (LB) · 49 tackles
- Carlton Smith (LB) · 47 tackles
Purdue
- Asaad Waseem (WR) · 652 receiving yards
- Jojo Hayden (LB) · 53 tackles
- Justin Denson (DB) · 51 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Ryan Browne (QB) — Purdue’s leading passer (1,964 passing yards) takes on Maryland’s pass defense (39th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Purdue fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (85th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 59%
- Line · 69%
- Purdue fans · 85th
- Maryland fans · 33rd
Purdue favored by 6 · Total 57.5
Purdue by 6: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Purdue’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Ross-Ade Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88
Maryland at Purdue · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 12:30 pm ET · Ross-Ade Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Ross-Ade Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Purdue is worth +1.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.
37% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (19-32 home, 14-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.5 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 539 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Purdue
- Wk 4Lvs Notre Dame10-49
- Wk 5Wat Illinois24-17
- Wk 6Wvs Minnesota41-13
- Wk 7Lvs Washington26-38
- Wk 9Lat Penn State17-31
Maryland
- Wk 4Lvs UCLA3-54
- Wk 5Lat Nebraska23-48
- Wk 6Lat Ohio State16-45
- Wk 7Lvs Rutgers30-37
- Wk 9Lvs Illinois17-20
Power rating by week
Purdue is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Maryland.
Spread: −7 → −6
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.