Kentucky 34-17 Vanderbilt (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Vanderbilt · Kentucky

Vanderbilt3-517

No. 12 Kentucky7-134Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. · Crowd 61,843

No. 12 Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 34-17.

We had Kentucky favored. It won.

Next: Vanderbilt at Mississippi State, Sat Nov 7

Next: Kentucky at Tennessee, Sat Nov 7

Did we break up a pass???????????????

A Kentucky fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kentucky an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Kentucky was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Kentucky won by 17, after dipping to 47% in the second quarter.

Vanderbilt led by 10 but, as a 9.5-point underdog, never had better than a 53% chance.

21 unanswered

Kentucky · Q2 0:21

FinalKentucky 34-17 VanderbiltKentucky wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 3:49Special teams60-yd punt, Coffman returns it 12Kentucky 56% → 69% (+13)
2Q2 0:21Rodriguez 1-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 14-10Kentucky 71% → 83% (+12)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 3:49Special teams60-yd punt, Coffman returns it 12Vanderbilt 44% → 31% (−13)
2Q2 0:21Rodriguez 1-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 14-10Vanderbilt 29% → 17% (−12)

Kentucky is getting hosed by the refs

Q4 14:14 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 6:12Officials overturn pass completion review, allowing Vanderbilt touchdowncutting to the dude in a mask after the Vandy touchdown, hahar/CFB game thread
Q3 0:14Kentucky fans celebrate a fumble recovery as karma for missed callsThese announcers sound depressed that Vandy fumbled.r/CFB game thread17 forced turnovers through not even 8 games is wildr/CFB game thread
Q4 14:14Fans argue Kentucky refs missed blatant DPI on Minchey pass to MillerThese refs are legitimately suspect AF!r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:49Ty Bryant intercepts J.Curtis pass as Kentucky fans chant ball don't lie🚨Ty “Ty Bryant” Bryant🚨r/CFB game thread
Q4 6:29Officials finally call defensive pass interference against VanderbiltLeast egregious of the 3 but still a good call.r/CFB game threadOh so they CAN call DPIr/CFB game thread

Kentucky’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Kentucky -9.5), at 82% for Kentucky (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kentucky or Vanderbilt flair (980 and 71); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Kentucky’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Kentucky scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Vanderbilt on 3 of its 9.

Kentucky’s drives are teal, Vanderbilt’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Vanderbilt’s side

Vanderbilt’s best moment: Curtis 34-yd TD pass to Thomas, cuts it to 21-17 (Q3 5:45). It lifted Vanderbilt’s win chance by 10 points.

How Vanderbilt fans took it: “It’s a joke that ND and Miami are ranked as high as they are with their SoS.” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

Kentucky’s chance to make the playoff rose from 40% to 45%.

Make the playoff

Vanderbilt · lost0% → 0%

Kentucky · won40% → ▲45%

Win the conference

Vanderbilt · lost0% → 0%

Kentucky · won6% → ▲7%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Kentucky plays at Tennessee on Sat Nov 7 with a 45% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 17

Kentucky covered −9.5 by 7.5. The total, 51, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Vanderbilt	Kentucky
Total yards	262	376
Passing	27 of 36, 247 yds	19 of 26, 203 yds
Rushing	17 for 15 yds	39 for 173 yds
First downs	15	24
Third down	7 of 12	8 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	9 for 75 yds	3 for 24 yds
Time of possession	28:57	31:03

Vanderbilt leaders

Passing Jared Curtis 27 of 36, 247 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jamezell Lassiter 1 for 6 yds; Jared Curtis 8 for 6 yds
Receiving Junior Sherrill 8 for 78 yds; Cole Spence 5 for 49 yds

Kentucky leaders

Passing Kenny Minchey 19 of 26, 203 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jovantae Barnes 15 for 68 yds; Jason Patterson 12 for 44 yds
Receiving Kenny Darby 4 for 71 yds; Willie Rodriguez 6 for 67 yds

No rain and calm

61° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 12

October game-day temperatures at Kroger Field

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:56 left7:41 p.m.

Vanderbilt 0, Kentucky 0 · Kentucky 82% to win

no rain · wind 1 mph from the north · 62°

Curtis incomplete to Fisher

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Lexington/bluegrass airport, 5.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Vanderbilt · 3-4

Rated 45th in our preseason ratings, 72nd now, down 27 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 21-31 vs Arkansas No. 105 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 17-52 vs Ole MissTop 25 No. 18 of 668 teams

lost by 35 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 14-38 @ GeorgiaTop 25 No. 1 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 25.5-point underdog

L 15-21 @ Auburn No. 56 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 10-point underdog

W 35-31 vs NC State No. 37 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 3-point favorite

W 35-26 vs Delaware No. 41 of 668 teams

won by 9 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 28-9 vs Austin Peay No. 105 of 668 teams

won by 19 as a 29.5-point favorite

Last three games

Kentucky · 6-1

Rated 102nd in our preseason ratings, 39th now, up 63 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 8-point win over Oklahoma as a 7-point underdog.

W 21-13 @ OklahomaTop 25 No. 30 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 7-point underdog

W 35-34 vs LSUTop 25 No. 12 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 35-34 @ South Carolina No. 40 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 45-21 vs South Alabama No. 73 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 31-21 @ Texas A&MTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 16.5-point underdog

L 17-45 vs AlabamaTop 25 No. 20 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 45-13 vs Youngstown State No. 126 of 668 teams

won by 32 as a 22.5-point favorite

Week by week

Kentucky

Wk 3Wat Texas A&M31-21
Wk 4Wvs South Alabama45-21
Wk 5Wat South Carolina35-34
Wk 6Wvs LSU35-34
Wk 7Wat Oklahoma21-13

Vanderbilt

Wk 3Wvs NC State35-31
Wk 4Lat Auburn15-21
Wk 5Lat Georgia14-38
Wk 6Lvs Ole Miss17-52
Wk 7Lvs Arkansas21-31

Power rating by week

Kentucky is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kentucky’s success rate against Vanderbilt, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Kentucky’s explosive plays against Vanderbilt’s defense
Kentucky offense, 5th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 68th
Kentucky’s success rate against Vanderbilt’s defense
Kentucky offense, 89th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 16th
Kentucky’s rushing EPA against Vanderbilt’s defense
Kentucky offense, 68th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 20th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

VanderbiltKentucky

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Kentucky leads the series 49-42-4

95 meetings since 1906 · Vanderbilt has won the last 2

2025Vanderbilt 45-17
2024Vanderbilt 20-13
2023Kentucky 45-28
2022Vanderbilt 24-21
2021Kentucky 34-17

Each line is Kentucky’s chance to win through that meeting. Kentucky is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kentucky fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Kentucky favored by 9.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Kentucky by 9.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Kentucky is worth +6.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.

61% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (33-21 home, 18-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 182 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Vanderbilt 24, Kentucky 21Nov 12, 2022

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Kentucky2nd4-1
Vanderbilt16th0-4

Full SEC standings

No. 12 Kentucky beats Vanderbilt 34-17