Missouri at Kansas
Fan take
This is Border War — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Missouri · 8-5
Picked #37 in the preseason · now #53 — worse than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 7–13 vs VirginiaTop 25 #35 of 668
lost by 6 as a 4-point favorite
W 31–17 @ Arkansas #59 of 668
won by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 6–17 @ OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 668
lost by 11 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 49–27 vs Mississippi State #78 of 668
won by 22 as a 7-point favorite
L 17–38 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #8 of 668
lost by 21 as a 7-point underdog
L 10–17 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #27 of 668
lost by 7 as a 3-point underdog
W 23–17 @ AuburnTop 25 #33 of 668
won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 24–27 vs AlabamaTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog
W 42–6 vs Massachusetts #166 of 668
won by 36 as a 44.5-point favorite
W 29–20 vs South CarolinaTop 25 #37 of 668
won by 9 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 52–10 vs Louisiana #70 of 668
won by 42 as a 27.5-point favorite
W 42–31 vs Kansas #41 of 668
won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 61–6 vs Central Arkansas #118 of 668
won by 55 as a 39.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Kansas · 5-7
Picked #84 in the preseason · now #96 — worse than expected.
Three straight losses.
L 21–31 vs UtahTop 25 #15 of 668
lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog
L 14–38 @ Iowa StateTop 25 #39 of 668
lost by 24 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 20–24 @ ArizonaTop 25 #55 of 668
lost by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 38–21 vs Oklahoma State #173 of 668
won by 17 as a 25-point favorite
L 17–42 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #26 of 668
lost by 25 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 17–42 @ Texas TechTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 25 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 27–20 @ UCF #76 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 34–37 vs CincinnatiTop 25 #46 of 668
lost by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 41–10 vs West Virginia #88 of 668
won by 31 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 31–42 @ MissouriTop 25 #22 of 668
lost by 11 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 46–7 vs Wagner #185 of 668
won by 39 as a 46.5-point favorite
W 31–7 vs Fresno State #69 of 668
won by 24 as a 14-point favorite
What’s at stake
Missouri
- Missouri is ranked #23, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Missouri has won 5 straight in Border War — a chance to extend it.
Kansas
- Kansas has dropped 5 straight in Border War — a chance to snap the skid.
The series
Missouri leads the series 56-48-8
112 meetings since 1901 · Missouri has won the last 5
- 2026Missouri 38–21
- 2025Missouri 42–31
- 2011 · neutral siteMissouri 24–10
- 2010 · neutral siteMissouri 35–7
- 2009 · neutral siteMissouri 41–39
Best players
Missouri
- Donovan Olugbode (WR) · 237 receiving yards
- Cayden Lee (WR) · 200 receiving yards
- Austin Simmons (QB) · 544 passing yards — Heisman odds: 40th (+6000)
Kansas
- Nik McMillan (WR) · 182 receiving yards
- Trey Lathan (LB) · 12 tackles
- Isaiah Marshall (QB) · 414 passing yards
The line, and the room
Kansas fans are feeling better about their season (54th percentile) than Missouri fans are (10th) — even with Missouri favored here.
Home +4 · O/U 51.5
Conditions
71°F · 3 mph wind · Clear
Kansas is worth +2.4 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
36% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (14–25 home, 10–34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.8 at home vs. away over 68 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 157 miles to get here.
Missouri 38 – Kansas 21
Called it — picked Missouri to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 02:14 — 78 comments, 7.1× its usual pace.
comments / minutehome win probability
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 23:00–02:14 UTC (908 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- Q2The turn
25 points to Kansas — 47% to 72%.
#19 B.Craig field goal attempt from 27 yards NO GOOD blocked by #33 L.Harris III - Q2The answer
25 points to Kansas — 59% to 84%.
#8 I.Marshall pass complete deep left to #5 N.McMillan caught at MU00, for 20 yards to the MU00 TOUCHDOWN
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Kansas
- Wk 1Wvs Long Island University51-6
Missouri
- Wk 1Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14
Trajectory
Missouri beat Kansas 38-21 — exactly what the pregame pick had.