Next game: at Auburn
Auburn’s best edge on Arkansas is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Arkansas offense against Auburn defense
Auburn offense against Arkansas defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.17 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 151 / 249 | 60.6 | 1673 #56 FBS | 6.7 | 7 | 5 | 122.3 | 40 | 55.4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 249 pass attempts and 72 carries in 8 games, more passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View KJ Jackson's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.25 EPA/play | 2 | 2 | 16 / 28 | 57.1 | 181 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 | 123.2 | — | 61.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.05 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 63 | 217 | 3.4 | 1 | 18 | 17.7 | 8.1 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 63 carries and 13 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Smith wins in space out of the backfield. Coleman is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share17.1% 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry3.7 bottom 7th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sutton Smith's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.14 EPA/play | 27 | 7 | 55 | 214 | 3.9 | 2 | 27 | 12.7 | 7.3 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 55 carries and 16 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Settles wins in space out of the backfield. Coleman is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share22.5% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.6 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cam Settles's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.10 EPA/play | — | 8 | 59 | 205 | 3.5 | 2 | 30 | 19.0 | 8.6 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 59 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Russell just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Coleman is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight227 lb 94th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry3.7 bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braylen Russell's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.80 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 43 | 601 #42 FBS | 14.0 | 2 | 50 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Starter — 43 catches in 7 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Marshall moves the chains on third down. Bennett is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception14.2 58th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume43 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Marshall's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.38 EPA/play | 19 | 5 | 15 | 205 | 13.7 | 0 | 37 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Jordan moves the chains on third down. Bennett is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception15.8 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Antonio Jordan's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.28 EPA/play | 85 | 6 | 16 | 137 | 8.6 | 1 | 20 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 16 catches in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ty Lockwood's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.43 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 8 | 126 | 15.8 | 0 | 31 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 3 | 5 | 11 | 120 | 10.9 | 0 | 21 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 9 | 118 | 13.1 | 2 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 8 | 109 | 13.6 | 0 | 23 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.17 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 5 | 84 | 16.8 | 0 | 37 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.75 EPA/play | 83 | 5 | 9 | 81 | 9 | 2 | 13 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. This week's matchup — TE Platt is the first read once you cross the 20. II is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt TD rate22.2% 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume9 bottom 19th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaden Platt's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 5.5 | 3 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.4% 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Quincy Rhodes Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 91 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight327 lb 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Carlon Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View David Oke's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | — | 6 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight313 lb 85th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Hunter Osborne's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 35 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Steven Soles Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Antonio Sandel-Bascomb's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 88 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Xadavien Sims's full player pageWeight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| 9 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | |
| 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 25 | 8 | 55 | 22 | 33 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 55 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ja'Quavion Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 8 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 51 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ben Bogle's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 7 | 6 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bradley Shaw's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Phoenix Jackson's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 8 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 46 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Khmori House's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 8 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Christian Harrison's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaheim Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Shelton Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 24 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 1.5 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 70th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Miguel Mitchell's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 13 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Carter Stoutmire's full player page | |||||||
| 4 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 30 | 8 | 10/15 | 66.7 | 17/17 | 47 | 55 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 3 | 5 | 238 | 47.6 | 54 | 3 | 1 | |
| Steady | 37 | 7 | 27 | 1093 | 40.5 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.05 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 | 20 |
Biggest plays from Arkansas’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Arkansas’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 5:44 · Tennessee tiedShelton Lewis intercepts George MacIntyre and returns it 11 yardsTennessee at Arkansas, week 6Q4, 5:44 · Tennessee 17, Arkansas 17▼26%Tennessee’s chance to win, 76% to 50%▼26%Tennessee’s chance to win, 76% to 50%G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by S.Lewis at ARK31 QB hurried by C.Harrison S.Lewis return 11 yards to the ARK42, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
Q1, 3:41 · Missouri up 3Missouri scores a touchdownMissouri at Arkansas, week 9Q1, 3:41 · Missouri 10, Arkansas 0Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownArkansas rush middle for 34 yards loss to the ARK00 fumbled by Arkansas at ARK29 recovered by MIZ D.Smith at ARK00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 3:46 · Vanderbilt down 7Miguel Mitchell intercepts Jared CurtisArkansas at Vanderbilt, week 7Q4, 3:46 · Vanderbilt 21, Arkansas 28Vanderbilt turned it over with 3:46 left, trailing by 7Vanderbilt turned it over with 3:46 left, trailing by 7J.Curtis pass intercepted by M.Mitchell at Ark31 QB hurried by H.Osborne and C.Jones, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 9:24 · Arkansas tiedTrajen Greco intercepts KJ Jackson and returns it 22 yardsMissouri at Arkansas, week 9Q1, 9:24 · Arkansas 0, Missouri 03Arkansas’s turnover led to a field goal3Arkansas’s turnover led to a field goalArkansas’s turnover led to a field goalK.Jackson pass intercepted by T.Greco at MIZ35 broken up by C.Graves Jr. T.Greco return 22 yards to the ARK43 (A.Jordan)▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 6:16 · Arkansas down 7, ties itJaheim Johnson takes an interception 25 yards for a pick-sixArkansas at Vanderbilt, week 7Q2, 6:16 · Arkansas 7, Vanderbilt 725Pick-six25Pick-sixPick-sixJ.Curtis pass intercepted by J.Johnson at Vandy25 J.Johnson return 25 yards to the Vandy00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 4:28 · Arkansas breaks the tieKJ Jackson finds Jaden Platt for a 4-yard touchdownTennessee at Arkansas, week 6Q3, 4:28 · Arkansas 14, Tennessee 7Go-ahead score for Arkansas in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Arkansas in the third quarterK.Jackson pass complete short left to J.Platt caught at TEN00, for 4 yards to the TEN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Arkansas lost to Tennessee after being 86% to win; the closest win was at Vanderbilt, down to 18%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Arkansas during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Arkansas
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · ArkansasJa'Quavion Smith leads Arkansas with 55 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+19 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Arkansas fields a struggling pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Arkansas reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 23%) and success rate (top 56%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where Arkansas sits at the 5th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Arkansas is worth +1.9 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile of 133 programs
37% at home, 22% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (19-32 home, 8-29 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Arkansas has beaten the number by 6.8 points less at home than away over 93 games. That is outside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
Razorback Stadium seats 80,000 and has averaged 89% full (70,872, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 427 miles to get here since 2018 — 67th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 6% of the 2026 roster (7 of 117 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogRaylen Sharpe produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatJaden Platt is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatO'Mega Blake is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatRaylen Sharpe is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Sutton Smith and Braylen Russell split the carries (61/119 vs 58/119) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Sutton Smith owns the receiving work; Braylen Russell produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Chris Marshall (WR) and Ty Lockwood (TE) split the targets (65/89 vs 24/89) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Arkansas actually scores
7th percentile quality, 93rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Arkansas’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 57th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 54th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Arkansas hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
71st percentile success on standard downs, 24th on passing downs — a 47-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Arkansas by half
1st-half offense ranks 5th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 56th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Arkansas’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.02; 16th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.18 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arkansas’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 244-play sample) — mid-pack, 42 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arkansas’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 168-play sample) — mid-pack, 117 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 83% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
5 of 6 forced fumbles recovered; 2 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 21% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
5 interceptions of 24 disrupted passes (19 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The penalty battle is a wash: 50 penalties committed vs. 56 drawn on opponents.
454 penalty yards committed vs. 453 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Arkansas
Most similar programs · ArkansasReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 52°, between 38° and 66° in about 7 in 10 games (32 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 66°, and 8 in 10 ran between 45° and 82° (41 of 42 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.