Texas State
0-2Pac-12 · G.J. Kinne, year 4 (23-18) · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 30,000 · 22,019 avg in 2026
LastL 26–31 vs UTSA · Sat Sep 12 · Torrance Burgess Jr. 149 rush yds, 6 rec yds
Nextvs North Texas · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · Texas State by 3 · series 1-0 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 91 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.54 EPA/play | 8 | 2 | 32 / 53 | 60.4 | 342 | 6.5 | 1 | 3 | 109.5 | 55 | 29.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.40 EPA/play | 4 | 2 | 29 | 183 #31 FBS | 6.3 | 0 | 65 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.59 EPA/play | 6 | 2 | 25 | 128 | 5.1 | 2 #43 FBS | 16 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.96 EPA/play | 2 | 2 | 6 | 102 | 17 | 0 | 31 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.45 EPA/play | 1 | 2 | 11 | 94 | 8.5 | 1 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 9 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 13 of 46 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 56th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jayden Bradley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 #22 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 22 of 46 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.9% 61th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ryan Nolan's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 #10 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 1 | 2/2 | 100 | 2/2 | 8 | 51 | |
| 41 | 2 | 0/3 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 | 0 |
2026 stat leaders · Texas State
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · Texas StateJayden Bradley leads Texas State with 18 tackles through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Texas State fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Texas State reads strongest in rushing epa (top 5%) and epa / play (top 6%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Texas State sits at the 20th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Texas State · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Texas State is worth +4.8 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 64th percentile of 133 programs
44% at home, 23% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (19–24 home, 11–36 away). Interval ±4.0.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Texas State has beaten the number by +1.2 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±7.5 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Bobcat Stadium (TX) seats 30,000 and has averaged 70% full (21,017, 25 games reported). Visitors cover a median 583 miles to get here since 2018 — 32nd-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 11% of the 2026 roster (11 of 104 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
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Scheme claims
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Texas State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 37th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 59th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Tendency drift
Season by season
How Texas State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
Pass-depth identity
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.3% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 64-play sample) — mid-pack, 15 of 18 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Texas State
Most similar programs · Texas StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Historical echo
Texas State’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Conditions
78°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 75 home games with weather data.