Arizona

1-1

Big 12 · Brent Brennan, year 3 (14-13) · Arizona Stadium · 50,782 · 40,129 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#27 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #24 (+12.6) · FPI #43
The marketArizona by 34.5vs Northern Illinois · our model 89% Arizona · a number, not a pick

LastL 17–28 at BYU · Sat Sep 12 · Noah Fifita 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Nextvs Northern Illinois · Sat Sep 19 · 10:30 pm ET · Arizona Stadium · Arizona by 34.5 · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
26.0
Pts allowed/game
17.5
Total yards/gm#64 / 138 · 54th pct
423.5
Rush yards/gmT-#86 / 138 · 37th pct
151.5
Pass yards/gm#48 / 138 · 66th pct
272.0
Yards allowed/gm#45 / 138 · 68th pct
279.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#17 / 138 · 88th pct
70.5
SacksT-#20 / 138 · 80th pct
6
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#33 / 138 · 73rd pct
50.0%
All 84 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
847423.5/gm6.32/play#64 / 138 · 54th pct#41 / 69 · 41st pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
558279.0/gm5.17/play#45 / 138 · 68th pct#37 / 69 · 47th pct#10 / 16 · 41st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
303151.5/gm2.26/playT-#86 / 138 · 37th pctT-#45 / 69 · 35th pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
14170.5/gm1.31/play#17 / 138 · 88th pct#15 / 69 · 79th pct#4 / 16 · 78th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6633.0/gmT-#96 / 138 · 28th pctT-#47 / 69 · 29th pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5125.5/gmT-#9 / 138 · 93rd pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 16 · 84th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 69 · 44th pctT-#11 / 16 · 28th pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 69 · 64th pctT-#5 / 16 · 66th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
544272.0/gm4.06/play#48 / 138 · 66th pct#30 / 69 · 57th pct#6 / 16 · 66th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
417208.5/gm3.86/play#69 / 138 · 50th pct#43 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 16 · 41st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
6834.0/gmT-#43 / 138 · 68th pctT-#20 / 69 · 70th pct#4 / 16 · 78th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5728.5/gmT-#56 / 138 · 58th pctT-#34 / 69 · 50th pct#8 / 16 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
5025.0/gmT-#26 / 138 · 81st pctT-#11 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 84th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3517.5/gmT-#64 / 138 · 53rd pct#39 / 69 · 44th pct#8 / 16 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 69 · 30th pctT-#11 / 16 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#75 / 138 · 36th pctT-#47 / 69 · 22nd pctT-#10 / 16 · 22nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
152.3152.3#46 / 115 · 60th pct#31 / 59 · 48th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Opp
133.2133.2#59 / 91 · 36th pct#32 / 41 · 23rd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
21.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 69 · 78th pctT-#3 / 16 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 69 · 64th pctT-#3 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
63.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 78th pctT-#3 / 16 · 78th pct#10 / 11 · 18th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
126.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 59th pctT-#33 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 16 · 47th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
73.5/gmT-#30 / 138 · 76th pctT-#18 / 69 · 70th pctT-#6 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4723.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 61st pctT-#35 / 69 · 49th pctT-#10 / 16 · 38th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#20 / 138 · 85th pctT-#18 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
126.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 59th pctT-#29 / 69 · 54th pct#10 / 16 · 41st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 48th pctT-#42 / 69 · 35th pctT-#10 / 16 · 28th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2412.0/gmT-#81 / 138 · 38th pctT-#39 / 69 · 42nd pct#8 / 16 · 53rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#33 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#14 / 69 · 76th pctT-#2 / 16 · 78th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 69 · 49th pctT-#7 / 16 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 69 · 90th pctT-#1 / 16 · 91st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 69 · 43rd pctT-#8 / 16 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 69 · 49th pctT-#7 / 16 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
65:5332:56/gm#42 / 138 · 70th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#5 / 16 · 72nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
54:0727:04/gm#33 / 138 · 76th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#5 / 16 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.33 EPA/play1245 / 6075492
#45 FBS
8.23
#60 FBS
1157.05584.97.56.2
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.12 EPA/play3225973.92
#43 FBS
20
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.10 EPA/play521314411.1031
+0.48 EPA/play1226599.8120
-0.38 EPA/play8427436.1012

2026 stat leaders · Arizona

through 2 games

Taye Brown leads Arizona with 15 tackles through 2 games.

1. Taye Brown LB 15 tackles
2. Noah Fifita QB 492 passing yards
3. Gio Richardson WR 144 receiving yards
4. Cooper Blomstrom LB 12 tackles
5. Chase Kennedy LB 9 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Arizona fields a capable offense behind an elite defense.

Offense
58th pct EPA/play
Defense
83rd pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Arizona · 2025

Arizona reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 16%) and epa allowed (top 17%); the crux lives in passing epa, where Arizona sits at the 40th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.18
58th
Success Rate +0.43
55th
Explosive Plays +1.29
65th
Rushing EPA +0.16
71st

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.06
83rd
Success Rate Allowed +0.37
85th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.24
62nd
Passing EPA Allowed +0.14
81st

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.23
40th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
52nd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Arizona · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Arizona is worth +3.5 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 37th percentile of 133 programs

47% at home, 30% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (20–23 home, 12–28 away). Interval ±4.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Arizona has beaten the number by +0.6 more at home than away over 74 games — inside the ±7.9 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Arizona Stadium seats 50,782 and has averaged 88% full (44,757, 28 games reported). Visitors cover a median 592 miles to get here since 2018 — 29th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 13% of the 2026 roster (14 of 105 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.

Home20–23Away12–28Edge+3.5 ±4.3Visitor trip592 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Arizona hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

92nd percentile success on standard downs, 86th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantArizonaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Arizona’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Seth Doege (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 46% → 2026: 55% · 9-pt range · #99 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 50% → 2026: 30% · 20-pt range · #33 of 182 · more than most
Defense: Danny Gonzales (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 46% → 2026: 55% · 9-pt range · #107 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 50% → 2026: 30% · 20-pt range · #44 of 200 · more than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arizona’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (72.2% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 61-play sample) — mid-pack, 36 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=61 short-zone plays, raw rate 77.0%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Arizona

CFB Zeitgeist

#27

+6.1

SP+

#24

+12.6

FPI

#43

+6.0

Elo

#40

1608

The national models put Arizona between 24th and 43rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 27th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Arizona

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Arizona’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.

Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.

Middle Tennessee 2013–2018
held the gain
USC 1960–1965
kept climbing
Toledo 1979–1984
fell back
Marshall 1980–2000
fell back

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

80°F average kickoff temp; 1% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 77 home games with weather data.

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