Old Dominion

2-7

Next game: at Coastal Carolina

Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina are even on paper

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

Old Dominion offense against Coastal Carolina defense

weakelite
PassingOld Dominion 2nd · Coastal Carolina 8th
RunningOld Dominion 1st · Coastal Carolina 36th
Staying on scheduleOld Dominion 0th · Coastal Carolina 16th
Big playsOld Dominion 58th · Coastal Carolina 84th
Red zoneOld Dominion 3rd · Coastal Carolina 66th

Coastal Carolina offense against Old Dominion defense

weakelite
PassingCoastal Carolina 64th · Old Dominion 78th
RunningCoastal Carolina 46th · Old Dominion 81st
Staying on scheduleCoastal Carolina 34th · Old Dominion 79th
Big playsCoastal Carolina 91st · Old Dominion 91st
Red zoneCoastal Carolina 44th · Old Dominion 55th

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play138th of 138
-0.15
EPA allowed / play23rd of 138
-0.03
Tackles for lossTied 4th of 138
71
Power success allowedTied 5th of 137
50.0%
Fumbles lost138th of 138
11
Fumbles rec (def)138th of 138
11
Points / game135th of 138
16.3
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
2414268.2/gm4.25/play135th of 13869th of 7014th of 1412th of 12
Opp
3126347.3/gm4.85/play90th of 13858th of 708th of 141st of 12
Rush yards
Team
87797.4/gm1.54/playTied 128th of 13863rd of 7014th of 1412th of 12
Opp
1294143.8/gm2.01/play92nd of 13860th of 709th of 141st of 12
Rush carries
Team
32335.9/gmTied 26th of 138Tied 8th of 705th of 1411th of 12
Opp
37241.3/gm136th of 13870th of 7013th of 141st of 12
Rush TDs
Team
80.9/gmTied 120th of 138Tied 65th of 7012th of 1411th of 12
Opp
91.0/gmTied 40th of 138Tied 29th of 70Tied 3rd of 141st of 12
Net pass yards
Team
1537170.8/gm2.71/play114th of 13863rd of 7013th of 1412th of 12
Opp
1832203.6/gm2.84/playTied 88th of 138Tied 43rd of 7010th of 141st of 12
Pass attempts
Team
24527.2/gmTied 73rd of 138Tied 42nd of 708th of 1412th of 12
Opp
27230.2/gmTied 111th of 138Tied 52nd of 7012th of 141st of 12
Completions
Team
12914.3/gmTied 114th of 13864th of 7012th of 1412th of 12
Opp
17219.1/gm113th of 13855th of 7012th of 141st of 12
Pass TDs
Team
60.7/gmTied 127th of 13869th of 70Tied 13th of 1411th of 12
Opp
151.7/gmTied 105th of 138Tied 57th of 70Tied 9th of 141st of 12
Passer rating
Team
108.5108.5135th of 13870th of 7014th of 1410th of 12
Opp
131.4131.462nd of 13735th of 705th of 142nd of 12
Interceptions thrown
Team
91.0/gmTied 121st of 138Tied 63rd of 70Tied 13th of 143rd of 12
Opp
60.7/gmTied 62nd of 138Tied 35th of 70Tied 7th of 1411th of 12
Sacks (def)
Team
202.2/gmTied 36th of 138Tied 24th of 706th of 149th of 10
Opp
424.7/gm138th of 13870th of 7014th of 148th of 10
Tackles for loss
Team
717.9/gmTied 4th of 138Tied 3rd of 701st of 148th of 10
Opp
899.9/gm138th of 13870th of 7014th of 148th of 10
First downs
Team
13114.6/gm130th of 13868th of 7014th of 1412th of 12
Opp
17719.7/gmTied 117th of 13864th of 7013th of 141st of 12
3rd-down conv
Team
434.8/gmTied 66th of 138Tied 36th of 70Tied 6th of 1412th of 12
Opp
475.2/gmTied 100th of 138Tied 54th of 7011th of 141st of 12
3rd-down att
Team
12614.0/gmTied 10th of 1383rd of 701st of 1412th of 12
Opp
13915.4/gm137th of 13870th of 7013th of 141st of 12
4th-down conv
Team
30.3/gmTied 128th of 138Tied 65th of 70Tied 13th of 1412th of 12
Opp
70.8/gmTied 55th of 138Tied 31st of 70Tied 6th of 142nd of 12
4th-down att
Team
131.4/gmTied 90th of 138Tied 43rd of 7010th of 1411th of 12
Opp
151.7/gmTied 66th of 138Tied 36th of 70Tied 6th of 142nd of 12
Time of possession
Team
238:5526:33/gm80th of 13844th of 7010th of 1412th of 12
Opp
301:0533:27/gm136th of 13870th of 7014th of 141st of 12

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Scrambler · +0.01 EPA/play10654 / 9855.16486.644116.02032.13.814.8
Pocket Passer · -0.04 EPA/play2343 / 8351.84956.00492.33119.12.710.8
-0.35 EPA/play4432 / 6251.63946.421112.43124.04.217.3
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Balanced Back · -0.15 EPA/play391094013.704131.510.2
-0.33 EPA/play69361062.9018——
+0.12 EPA/play57331033.1414——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.22 EPA/play893037712.6046
Deep Threat · +0.10 EPA/play1181830717.1371
Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play782228412.9033
Complete TE · +0.37 EPA/play8691921411.3338
-0.15 EPA/play15912013.3038

Biggest plays from Old Dominion’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Old Dominion’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q1, 2:59 · Georgia State up 4Cameran Brown finds Derrick Avery Jr. for an 80-yard touchdownOld Dominion at Georgia State, week 5Q1, 2:59 · Georgia State 14, Old Dominion 38080-yard touchdown pass8080-yard touchdown pass80-yard touchdown passC.Brown pass complete deep middle to D.Avery Jr. caught at ODU35, for 80 yards to the ODU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play Sun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 12:57 · Marshall tiedTJ Lester runs 4 yards for a touchdownMarshall at Old Dominion, week 9Q1, 12:57 · Marshall 7, Old Dominion 0Marshall opened the scoringMarshall opened the scoringT.Lester rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ODU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play Sun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 0:00 · Marshall up 10Marshall scores a touchdownMarshall at Old Dominion, week 9Q2, 0:00 · Marshall 27, Old Dominion 10100Blocked field goal returned for a touchdown100Blocked field goal returned for a touchdownBlocked field goal returned for a touchdownXayvion Turner-Bradshaw 100 yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
  4. Q1, 1:10 · Old Dominion tiedD. Roche fumbles and Georgia Southern recoversGeorgia Southern at Old Dominion, week 7Q1, 1:10 · Old Dominion 7, Georgia Southern 73Old Dominion’s turnover led to a field goal3Old Dominion’s turnover led to a field goalOld Dominion’s turnover led to a field goalD.Roche rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ODU46 fumbled by D.Roche at ODU46 forced by N.Eldridge Jr. recovered by GS A.Sears at ODU46, End Of PlayWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q1, 14:34 · Old Dominion tiedJ. Potter fumbles and Marshall recoversMarshall at Old Dominion, week 9Q1, 14:34 · Old Dominion 0, Marshall 07Old Dominion’s turnover led to a touchdown7Old Dominion’s turnover led to a touchdownOld Dominion’s turnover led to a touchdownJ.Potter sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ODU26 (K.Hardge II), fumble by J.Potter recovered by MU C.Lewis at ODU26, End Of Play. ODU is challenging the ruling on the field - "Loose ball recovery". CALL UPHELDWatch from this play Sun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 13:03 · Old Dominion down 17Brandon Crutchfield takes an interception 44 yards for a pick-sixMarshall at Old Dominion, week 9Q3, 13:03 · Old Dominion 17, Marshall 2744Pick-six44Pick-sixPick-sixZ.Turner pass intercepted by B.Crutchfield at MU 44 B.Crutchfield return 44 yards to the MU 00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this play Sun Belt Conference

All 45 plays from Old Dominion’s games

How scary each game got

Old Dominion lost to East Carolina after being 86% to win; the closest win was at App State, down to 28%

50%W1L2L3L4L5W6L7L8L9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Old Dominion during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · Old Dominion

through 9 games

Lucas Struck leads Old Dominion with 69 tackles through 9 games.

1. Lucas Struck S 69 tackles
2. Jackson Forrest LB 64 tackles
3. Mario Thompson LB 59 tackles
4. Mario Easterly S 56 tackles
5. JaMez Drummer LB 53 tackles

Roster

Roster

2026
28 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
Deandre Lynch IDL #14 of 300
Brandon Crutchfield CB #17 of 344
Javen Gibson EDGE #22 of 405
Jackson Forrest LB #54 of 567
Lucas Struck S #53 of 537
Mario Easterly S #69 of 537

+22 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

Old Dominion fields a struggling run-heavy offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
1st pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
60% run plays
Defense
84th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
91st pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · Old Dominion · 2026

Old Dominion reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 10%) and EPA allowed (top 17%); the crux lives in success rate, where Old Dominion sits at the 0th percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play -0.15
1st
Success rate +0.31
1st
Explosive plays +1.27
58th
Rushing EPA -0.17
1st
Red-zone finish +2.25
3rd

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed -0.03
84th
Success rate allowed +0.37
79th
Explosive plays allowed +1.11
91st
Passing EPA allowed +0.06
78th
Red-zone defense +3.38
55th

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +26.30
5th
Passing EPA -0.10
2nd
Rushing EPA allowed -0.06
81st
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 9 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Old Dominion is worth +2.7 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 23rd percentile of 133 programs

41% at home, 28% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17-24 home, 13-33 away). Interval ±3.6.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Old Dominion has beaten the number by −0.8 more at home than away over 92 games. That is inside the ±6.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

S.B. Ballard Stadium seats 20,118 and has averaged 96% full (19,263, 28 games reported). Visitors cover a median 351 miles to get here since 2018 — 51st-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 17% of the 2026 roster (24 of 143 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home17-24Away13-33Edge+2.7 ±3.6Visitor trip351 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Usage splitsWho gets the ball late, on money downs and as an underdog.

How the players get used

From the 2025 season's play-by-play

  • UnderdogTre' Brown III produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
  • Garbage timeDevin Roche does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
  • Garbage timeKe'Travion Hargrove sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
  • CloserTrequan Jones gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Devin Roche and Trey Hall split the carries (105/140 vs 35/140) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Devin RocheTrey Hall
Carries
10535
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
17/236/23
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
34.9%59.1%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Josh Rodriguez (WR) and Leon Haughton Jr. (TE) split the targets (51/77 vs 26/77) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Josh RodriguezLeon Haughton Jr.
Targets
5126
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
14/2511/25
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
5/83/8
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
43.1%59.2%
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Old Dominion’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 2nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 4th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 2nd pctileCompetitive snaps only · 4th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Old Dominion hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

1st percentile success on standard downs, 36th on passing downs — a 35-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantOld DominionWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Fragile off scheduleBalancedWeak both waysStandard downs onlyOld DominionWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
Air Force98th23rd
Akron58th34th
Alabama77th57th
App State33rd49th
Arizona76th94th
Arizona State38th61st
Arkansas71st24th
Arkansas State85th59th
Army93rd58th
Auburn14th69th
BYU86th35th
Ball State31st52nd
Baylor15th46th
Boise State77th92nd
Boston College63rd28th
Bowling Green43rd21st
Buffalo9th11th
California11th20th
Central Michigan36th9th
Charlotte18th41st
Cincinnati68th83rd
Clemson7th39th
Coastal Carolina23rd64th
Colorado16th65th
Colorado State66th95th
Delaware59th64th
Duke21st67th
East Carolina37th19th
Eastern Michigan16th30th
Florida61st70th
Florida Atlantic67th87th
Florida International20th53rd
Florida State30th90th
Fresno State25th84th
Gardner-Webb5th23rd
Georgia98th89th
Georgia Southern60th71st
Georgia State68th66th
Georgia Tech53rd40th
Hawai'i48th29th
Houston87th99th
Illinois73rd91st
Indiana55th44th
Iowa79th13th
Iowa State18th31st
Jacksonville State82nd80th
James Madison45th77th
Kansas52nd18th
Kansas State64th68th
Kennesaw State61st16th
Kent State5th21st
Kentucky90th51st
LSU86th98th
Liberty93rd78th
Louisiana36th66th
Louisiana Tech26th79th
Louisville95th72nd
Maine0th86th
Marshall69th32nd
Maryland34th26th
Massachusetts35th38th
Memphis92nd93rd
Mercyhurst2nd34th
Miami99th95th
Miami (OH)50th43rd
Michigan10th89th
Michigan State23rd55th
Middle Tennessee27th64th
Minnesota32nd4th
Mississippi State66th59th
Missouri34th41st
Missouri State52nd30th
NC State62nd77th
Navy89th17th
Nebraska46th85th
Nevada28th27th
New Mexico55th48th
New Mexico State14th36th
Norfolk State7th0th
North Carolina89th73rd
North Dakota State30th45th
North Texas95th84th
Northern Illinois51st14th
Northwestern88th88th
Notre Dame100th43rd
Ohio82nd42nd
Ohio State84th80th
Oklahoma4th50th
Oklahoma State96th86th
Old Dominion1st36th
Ole Miss81st94th
Oregon39th26th
Oregon State97th70th
Penn State20th47th
Pittsburgh65th50th
Purdue57th82nd
Rice59th14th
Robert Morris2nd5th
Rutgers42nd81st
SMU91st82nd
Sacramento State13th6th
Sam Houston11th37th
San Diego State8th54th
San José State17th2nd
South Alabama44th74th
South Carolina70th56th
South Florida84th57th
Southern Miss48th7th
Stanford40th9th
Syracuse57th39th
TCU70th10th
Temple50th68th
Tennessee75th12th
Texas27th61st
Texas A&M46th55th
Texas State74th100th
Texas Tech64th76th
Toledo73rd52nd
Troy39th15th
Tulane12th8th
Tulsa49th7th
UAB24th62nd
UCF29th45th
UCLA80th60th
UConn72nd73rd
UL Monroe47th11th
UNLV41st19th
USC79th97th
UT Martin6th3rd
UTEP9th1st
UTSA91st33rd
Utah94th98th
Utah State3rd76th
Vanderbilt41st32nd
Virginia83rd2nd
Virginia Tech43rd91st
Wake Forest75th96th
Washington56th16th
Washington State19th5th
West Virginia54th75th
Western Kentucky22nd25th
Western Michigan32nd27th
Wisconsin25th22nd
Wyoming78th48th

Old Dominion by half

1st-half offense ranks 1st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 1st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 1st pctile2nd half · 1st pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

How much of Old Dominion’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is -0.15; 1st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.09. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.22 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.

0.270.03-0.21Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.270.03-0.21Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

How Old Dominion’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Blake Seiler (2020–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2021: 42% → 2026: 44% · 18-pt range · #24 of 200 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2021: 41% → 2026: 29% · 30-pt range · #6 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2021: 34% → 2026: 30% · 13-pt range · #124 of 199 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Old Dominion’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 196-play sample) — mid-pack, 10 of 136 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Old Dominion’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 223-play sample) — mid-pack, 44 of 137 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 273 claims, 273 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=196 short-zone plays, raw rate 58.7%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=223 short-zone plays, raw rate 64.1%
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.174, 68th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.174
68th
Havoc allowed (O) 0.268
1st
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.130
89th
Secondary havoc (D) 0.043
9th
Stuff rate (D) 0.210
63rd
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.326
1st
Line yards (O) 1.811
1st
Line yards allowed (D) 2.722
63rd
Standard-downs success (O) 0.326
1st
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.412
77th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.298
37th
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.286
63rd
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 39% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.

7 of 18 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Cashing in at a normal clip: 22% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.

6 interceptions of 27 disrupted passes (21 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

The flags have favored them: 76 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 70 committed, 45 yards to the good.

605 penalty yards committed vs. 650 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank Old Dominion

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#126

-5.5

SP+

#124

-14.7

FPI

#127

-16.4

Elo

#124

1159

SRS

#132

-19.6

The national models put Old Dominion between 124th and 132nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 126th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Old Dominion

Reads like

CharlotteAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StatePac-12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontEast CarolinaAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

WeatherHow warm or cold its home and road games usually are.

S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA

Usual during the game around Nov 28: 44°, between 34° and 58° in about 7 in 10 games (19 games since 2016).

Road games since 2016: the middle game was 69°, and 8 in 10 ran between 51° and 78° (53 of 54 road games, at stadiums we cover).

HomeRoad

What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time

Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure

Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site