Mercer beats The Citadel 28-19
Team pages: The Citadel · Mercer
Mercer beat The Citadel 28-19. Share this game
We had Mercer favored. It won.
Next: The Citadel vs Furman, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
Next: Mercer at Chattanooga, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Kiely 43-yd field goal no good (Q2, 8:43). Mercer went from 50% to 76% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Mercer an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Mercer was a 16.5-point favorite) put it at 91%.
A tight one: Mercer bottomed out at 43% and won.
The Citadel led by 10 but, as a 16.5-point underdog, never had better than a 57% chance.
Mercer · Q3 7:59Mercer 28-19 The Citadel
Mercer wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The Citadel 19-28 MercerThe Citadel lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:43Kiely 43-yd field goal no goodMercer 50% → 76% (+26)
- 2Q3 11:15Pickles 9-yd TD pass to Caldwell, cuts it to 10-7Mercer 52% → 71% (+19)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:43Kiely 43-yd field goal no goodThe Citadel 50% → 24% (−26)
- 2Q3 11:15Pickles 9-yd TD pass to Caldwell, cuts it to 10-7The Citadel 48% → 29% (−19)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Mercer -16.5), at 92% for Mercer (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Mercer scored on 4 of its 11 drives; The Citadel on 4 of its 10.
Mercer’s drives are teal, The Citadel’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Mercer 28, The Citadel 19
The Citadel covered +16.5 by 7.5. The total, 47, stayed under 50.5.
The Citadel leaders
- Passing Nick Billoups 12 of 17, 143 yds
- Rushing Sebastien Boyle 12 for 63 yds, 1 TD; Nick Billoups 13 for 32 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Israel Benjamin 5 for 55 yds; Ismael Zamor 3 for 36 yds
Mercer leaders
- Passing JP Pickles 17 of 20, 234 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing JP Pickles 16 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Zahmari Palode-Gary 4 for 18 yds
- Receiving Brayden Smith 5 for 113 yds, 1 TD; Zachary Lowe 2 for 72 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
The Citadel · 2-6
Rated 203rd in our preseason ratings, 232nd now.
Three straight losses.
W 43-41 @ Charlotte No. 179 of 668 teams
won by 2 as a 20.5-point underdog
Last three games
Mercer · 6-2
Rated 169th in our preseason ratings, 144th now, up 25 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 31-21 @ Samford No. 235 of 668 teams
won by 10 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 17-14 vs Western Carolina No. 168 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 54-3 @ VMI No. 266 of 668 teams
won by 51 as a 34.5-point favorite
W 34-17 @ Abilene Christian No. 145 of 668 teams
won by 17 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 23-15 vs East Texas A&M No. 240 of 668 teams
won by 8 as a 22.5-point favorite
Week by week
Mercer
- Wk 3Lat Georgia Tech11-44
- Wk 4Wat Abilene Christian34-17
- Wk 5Wat VMI54-3
- Wk 6Wvs Western Carolina17-14
- Wk 7Wat Samford31-21
The Citadel
- Wk 4Lvs Chattanooga8-27
- Wk 5Wat South Carolina State34-31
- Wk 6Lvs East Tennessee State16-34
- Wk 7Lat Texas A&M0-41
- Wk 8Lvs Tennessee Tech13-28
Power rating by week
Mercer is rated 5.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
The series is tied 7-7-1
15 meetings since 1910 · Mercer has won the last 5
- 2025Mercer 38-0
- 2024Mercer 38-21
- 2023Mercer 38-16
- 2022Mercer 17-0
- 2021Mercer 34-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Mercer’s chances here.
Mercer favored by 16.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Mercer by 16.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 274 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward The Citadel.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −18.5 → −16.5 · Total: 52.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±8.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 215 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Mercer4th3-1
- The Citadel9th0-4