App State

2-0
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The Charlotte rivalryApp State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.our read

Sun Belt · Dowell Loggains, year 2 (7-8) · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 30,000 · 33,664 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#84 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #93 (-7.2) · FPI #83
The marketApp State by 17.5vs Charlotte · our model 83% App State · a number, not a pick

LastW 27–24 at East Carolina · Sat Sep 12 · Caleb Sandstrom 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 tackles

Nextvs Charlotte · Sat Sep 19 · 6 pm ET · Kidd Brewer Stadium · App State by 17.5 · series 4-0, won the last 4 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
41.0
Pts allowed/game
13.5
Total yards/gmT-#25 / 138 · 82nd pct
521.5
Rush yards/gm#38 / 138 · 73rd pct
214.0
Pass yards/gm#32 / 138 · 77th pct
307.5
Yards allowed/gm#76 / 138 · 45th pct
333.5
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#70 / 138 · 49th pct
119.5
SacksT-#60 / 138 · 50th pct
4
InterceptionsT-#17 / 115 · 81st pct
3
3rd-down convT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pct
33.3%
All 84 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1043521.5/gm7.24/playT-#25 / 138 · 82nd pctT-#17 / 70 · 76th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
667333.5/gm5.05/play#76 / 138 · 45th pct#53 / 70 · 25th pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
428214.0/gm2.97/play#38 / 138 · 73rd pct#22 / 70 · 69th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
239119.5/gm1.81/playT-#70 / 138 · 49th pctT-#50 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
8341.5/gmT-#35 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#19 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#3 / 14 · 79th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6331.5/gmT-#39 / 138 · 70th pctT-#30 / 70 · 57th pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
73.5/gmT-#17 / 138 · 85th pctT-#12 / 70 · 79th pctT-#3 / 14 · 79th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 64th pctT-#3 / 14 · 68th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
615307.5/gm4.27/play#32 / 138 · 77th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
428214.0/gm3.24/play#81 / 138 · 42nd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
6130.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 54th pctT-#37 / 70 · 47th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6934.5/gmT-#100 / 138 · 26th pctT-#52 / 70 · 26th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4924.5/gmT-#28 / 138 · 79th pctT-#13 / 70 · 81st pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3919.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#47 / 70 · 31st pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 70 · 31st pctT-#5 / 14 · 57th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 57th pctT-#29 / 70 · 46th pctT-#4 / 14 · 64th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#25 / 115 · 79th pct#21 / 60 · 66th pct#2 / 13 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
171.4171.4
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 70 · 21st pctT-#9 / 14 · 21st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#110 / 138 · 16th pctT-#60 / 70 · 11th pctT-#9 / 14 · 36th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
42.0/gmT-#60 / 138 · 50th pctT-#36 / 70 · 40th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#61 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#35 / 70 · 46th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
147.0/gmT-#29 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 68th pct#5 / 14 · 68th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
157.5/gmT-#123 / 138 · 9th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
5527.5/gmT-#22 / 138 · 84th pctT-#15 / 70 · 79th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3417.0/gmT-#57 / 138 · 58th pctT-#41 / 70 · 41st pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
73.5/gmT-#117 / 138 · 13th pctT-#63 / 70 · 8th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#40 / 138 · 67th pctT-#27 / 70 · 56th pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2110.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 15th pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 70 · 49th pctT-#5 / 14 · 57th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.5/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#1 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 19th pctT-#56 / 70 · 16th pctT-#11 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 70 · 44th pctT-#6 / 14 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#80 / 138 · 36th pctT-#42 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#11 / 14 · 21st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
69:1534:38/gm#26 / 138 · 82nd pct#10 / 70 · 86th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
50:4525:22/gm#18 / 138 · 87th pct#10 / 70 · 86th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.43 EPA/play3242 / 5280.8558
#30 FBS		10.73
#60 FBS		0189.9676910.85.5
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.03 EPA/play52281425.12
#43 FBS		14——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.34 EPA/play—29162
#54 FBS		182
#24 FBS		34
Complete TE · +0.94 EPA/play34—1112811.63
#9 FBS		58
Complete TE · +0.52 EPA/play721111310.3126
+0.51 EPA/play12710014.3027

2026 stat leaders · App State

through 2 games

Malachi Singleton leads App State with 558 passing yards through 2 games.

1. Malachi Singleton QB 558 passing yards
2. Sam Pickett III WR 162 receiving yards
3. Ja'Torian Mack S 13 tackles
4. Alex Mitchell LB 12 tackles
5. Kaleb Purdy DB 11 tackles
How They Play · 2025

App State fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
19th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
56% pass plays
Defense
31st pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
70th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · App State · 2025

App State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 30%) and rushing epa allowed (top 43%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where App State sits at the 10th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.09
19th
Success Rate +0.40
25th
Explosive Plays +1.25
45th
Rushing EPA +0.06
30th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.18
31st
Success Rate Allowed +0.45
11th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.21
70th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.32
29th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.16
18th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.06
58th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · App State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

App State is worth +5.1 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 67th percentile of 133 programs

78% at home, 49% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (32–9 home, 23–24 away). Interval ±3.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, App State has beaten the number by +0.6 more at home than away over 74 games — inside the ±7.2 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Kidd Brewer Stadium seats 30,000 and has averaged 112% full (33,640, 25 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 263 miles trip since 2018, the 18th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. 16% of the 2026 roster (24 of 154 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 51 home games since 2018.

Home32–9Away23–24Edge+5.1 ±3.8Visitor trip263 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does App State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

44th percentile success on standard downs, 90th on passing downs — a 46-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantApp StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How App State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: D. J. Smith (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 45% → 2026: 38% · 7-pt range · #143 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 49% → 2026: 28% · 21-pt range · #37 of 200 · more than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank App State

CFB Zeitgeist

#84

-1.4

SP+

#93

-7.2

FPI

#83

-3.9

Elo

#107

1325

The national models put App State between 83rd and 107th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 84th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · App State

Reads like

AkronMid-AmericanSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaBig 12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansasSECSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

App State’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.

Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.

Indiana 1953–1958
clawed back
Utah State 1970–1975
kept sliding
California 2009–2014
kept sliding
LSU 1952–1957
clawed back

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

59°F average kickoff temp; 16% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 76 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site