Missouri State beats Sam Houston 24-3

Team pages: Sam Houston · Missouri State

Sam Houston1-73
Missouri State3-524Final
Tue, Oct 27 · Plaster Sports Complex, Springfield, Mo. · Crowd 11,119ESPN2

Missouri State beat Sam Houston 24-3.

We had Sam Houston favored. Missouri State won.

Next: Sam Houston at Jacksonville State, Sat Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET

Next: Missouri State at Florida International, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Missouri State a 50% chance, and the closing betting line (Missouri State was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

Favored the whole way: Missouri State never fell below 67%.

Sam Houston never had better than a 32% chance.

FinalMissouri State 24-3 Sam HoustonMissouri State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfMissouri StateWon24-3Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfMissouri StateWon24-3Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfMissouri StateLowest 0%Lost3-24Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfMissouri StateLowest 0%Lost3-24Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Missouri State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Missouri State -5.5), at 79% for Missouri State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Missouri State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:01Belin sacked for a 6-yd lossQ1, 13:01 · Missouri State 0, Sam Houston 0▼3%Missouri State’s chance to win, 80% to 77%▼3%Missouri State’s chance to win, 80% to 77%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 4:09Belin 32-yd TD pass to MyersMissouri State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 4:09 · Missouri State 7, Sam Houston 0▲7%Missouri State’s chance to win, 77% to 84%▲7%Missouri State’s chance to win, 77% to 84%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 13:48Belin sacked for a 7-yd lossQ2, 13:48 · Missouri State 7, Sam Houston 37-3score after the play7-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 2:13Bailey sacked for a 9-yd lossQ2, 2:13 · Missouri State 10, Sam Houston 3▲5%Missouri State’s chance to win, 80% to 85%▲5%Missouri State’s chance to win, 80% to 85%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q4, 14:52Belin 37-yd TD pass to RobinsonMissouri State leads 17-3Q4, 14:52 · Missouri State 17, Sam Houston 3▲5%Missouri State’s chance to win, 90% to 95%▲5%Missouri State’s chance to win, 90% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 6:5845-yd punt, Blackmon returns it 0fumbledQ4, 6:58 · Missouri State 17, Sam Houston 3▲3%Missouri State’s chance to win, 97% to 100%▲3%Missouri State’s chance to win, 97% to 100%Watch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Missouri State scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Sam Houston on 1 of its 9.

Missouri State’s drives are teal, Sam Houston’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Missouri State: Missed field goal, from 72 yards out to 33Missed FGSam Houston: Punt, from 67 yards out to 67PuntMissouri State: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Field goal, from 73 yards out to 15Field goalMissouri State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Field goalQ2Sam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 76 yards out to 31DownsMissouri State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 71PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 66 yards out to 59PuntMissouri State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntSam Houston: Kickoff, from 70 yards out to 39KickoffMissouri State: End of half, from 71 yards out to 55End of halfQ3Sam Houston: Punt, from 79 yards out to 79PuntMissouri State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 59PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 87 yards out to 53PuntMissouri State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Sam Houston: Punt, from 87 yards out to 44PuntMissouri State: Fumble, from 85 yards out to 62FumbleMissouri State: Touchdown, from 18 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 8DownsMissouri State: Uncategorized, from 92 yards out to 92Uncategorized

What it cost

Missouri State’s chance to win the conference rose from 0% to 1%.

Win the conference

Sam Houston · lost0% → 0%
Missouri State · won0% → ▲1%

Before the game (October 27, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Missouri State plays at Florida International on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Missouri State 24, Sam Houston 3

Missouri State covered −5.5 by 15.5. The total, 27, stayed under 51.5.

Sam HoustonMissouri StateTotal yardsSam Houston 284Missouri State 313284313Passing yardsSam Houston 258Missouri State 184258184Rushing yardsSam Houston 26Missouri State 12926129First downsSam Houston 17Missouri State 161716TurnoversSam Houston 1Missouri State 010Time of possessionSam Houston 29:08Missouri State 30:5229:0830:52
Team totalsSam HoustonMissouri State
Total yards284313
Passing20 of 35, 258 yds12 of 18, 184 yds
Rushing25 for 26 yds39 for 129 yds
First downs1716
Third down5 of 144 of 11
Fourth down0 of 21 of 1
Turnovers10
Penalties10 for 84 yds6 for 55 yds
Time of possession29:0830:52

Sam Houston leaders

  • Passing DJ Bailey 20 of 35, 258 yds
  • Rushing MJ Dowdy 8 for 18 yds; Alton McCaskill 4 for 12 yds
  • Receiving Grady O'Neill 6 for 74 yds; Chris Reed 4 for 64 yds

Missouri State leaders

  • Passing Henry Belin IV 12 of 18, 184 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Connor Lair 19 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Henry Belin IV 6 for 27 yds
  • Receiving Jmariyae Robinson 7 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Myers 3 for 77 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

67° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 15

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Missouri State favoredSam Houston favored100%Win chanceMissouri StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Missouri State favoredSam Houston favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:45 left7:06 p.m.
Sam Houston 0, Missouri State 0 · Missouri State 79% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the south-southeast · 67°
Belin 32-yd pass to Myers
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Springfield, 6.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Sam Houston · 1-6

Rated 165th in our preseason ratings, 176th now.

Three straight losses.

L 24-30 vs New Mexico State No. 147 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 3-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 24-30 vs New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 77%.

L 3-16 vs Western Kentucky No. 81 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 1.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 3-16 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 53%, low under 1%, high 53%.

L 3-35 @ Liberty No. 58 of 668 teams

lost by 32 as a 13.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 3-35 at Liberty. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 12%.

L 14-49 @ Texas TechTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

lost by 35 as a 34.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 14-49 at Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 59-0 vs Nicholls No. 220 of 668 teams

won by 59 as a 21-point favorite

Sam Houston won 59-0 vs Nicholls. Chance to win started at 94%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

L 17-23 vs Tulsa No. 125 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 12.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 17-23 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 26%, low 4%, high 54%.

L 21-24 @ Troy No. 118 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 15.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 21-24 at Troy. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 32%.

Last three games

Missouri State · 2-5

Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 164th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog.

L 38-61 @ Delaware No. 93 of 668 teams

lost by 23 as a 3-point underdog

Missouri State lost 38-61 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 68%.

W 24-21 vs Kennesaw State No. 141 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 13-34 @ Western Kentucky No. 82 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 1.5-point favorite

Missouri State lost 13-34 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 24-34 @ SMUTop 25 No. 18 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 30.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 24-34 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 14%.

L 24-30 vs Marshall No. 39 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 4-point underdog

Missouri State lost 24-30 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 52%, low 7%, high 53%.

W 48-14 vs Lindenwood No. 180 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 16.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 48-14 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 90%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

L 0-50 @ Texas A&MTop 25 No. 6 of 668 teams

lost by 50 as a 38.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 0-50 at Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Week by week

Missouri State

Wk 3: L 24-30 vs Marshall▼6MarshallWk 4: L 24-34 at SMU▼10SMUWk 6: L 13-34 at Western Kentucky▼21W. Kentu…Wk 7: W 24-21 vs Kennesaw State▲3Kennesaw…Wk 8: L 38-61 at Delaware▼23Delaware
  • Wk 3Lvs Marshall24-30
  • Wk 4Lat SMU24-34
  • Wk 6Lat Western Kentucky13-34
  • Wk 7Wvs Kennesaw State24-21
  • Wk 8Lat Delaware38-61

Sam Houston

Wk 3: W 59-0 vs Nicholls▲59NichollsWk 4: L 14-49 at Texas Tech▼35T. TechWk 6: L 3-35 at Liberty▼32LibertyWk 7: L 3-16 vs Western Kentucky▼13W. Kentu…Wk 8: L 24-30 vs New Mexico State▼6N. Mexic…
  • Wk 3Wvs Nicholls59-0
  • Wk 4Lat Texas Tech14-49
  • Wk 6Lat Liberty3-35
  • Wk 7Lvs Western Kentucky3-16
  • Wk 8Lvs New Mexico State24-30

Power rating by week

Missouri State is rated 0.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-5-9Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Missouri StateSam Houston

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Missouri State’s success rate against Sam Houston, 31 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Missouri State’s success rate against Sam Houston’s defense

    31 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Missouri State offense, 26th percentile · Sam Houston defense, 57th

  2. Sam Houston’s rushing EPA against Missouri State’s defense

    23 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 5th percentile · Missouri State defense, 28th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Sam HoustonMissouri State
EPA/play, offense
Sam Houston · 5Missouri State · 34
EPA/play, defense
Sam Houston · 43Missouri State · 11
Success rate, offense
Sam Houston · 5Missouri State · 26
Success rate, defense
Sam Houston · 57Missouri State · 5
Explosive-play rate, offense
Sam Houston · 87Missouri State · 47
Explosive-play rate, defense
Sam Houston · 57Missouri State · 79
Rush EPA, offense
Sam Houston · 5Missouri State ·…
Rush EPA, defense
Sam Houston · 9Missouri State · 28
Pass EPA, offense
Sam Houston · 13Missouri State · 59
Pass EPA, defense
Sam Houston · 75Missouri State ·…

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2004 · Sam Houston won the last meeting

  • 2006Sam Houston 20-17
  • 2004 · neutral siteMissouri State 33-31

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Missouri State fans are in a better mood than Sam Houston fans (85th percentile vs 75th among FBS fanbases), even with Sam Houston favored.

  • Model · 50%
  • Line · 67%
  • Missouri State fans · 85th
  • Sam Houston fans · 75th

Missouri State favored by 5.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Missouri State by 5.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 397 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Sam Houston.

opened −6now −5.5

Spread: −6 → −5.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Missouri State is worth +7.1 points (±6.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.

36% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (4-7 home, 4-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.1 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 466 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Conference USA standings