New Mexico State

3-5

Next game: vs Liberty

Liberty’s best edge on New Mexico State is staying on schedule

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

New Mexico State offense against Liberty defense

weakelite
PassingNew Mexico State 3rd · Liberty 90th
RunningNew Mexico State 57th · Liberty 58th
Staying on scheduleNew Mexico State 29th · Liberty 87th
Big playsNew Mexico State 61st · Liberty 34th
Red zoneNew Mexico State 6th · Liberty 95th

Liberty offense against New Mexico State defense

weakelite
PassingLiberty 79th · New Mexico State 81st
RunningLiberty 85th · New Mexico State 55th
Staying on scheduleLiberty 91st · New Mexico State 59th
Big playsLiberty 19th · New Mexico State 37th
Red zoneLiberty 67th · New Mexico State 50th

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play126th of 138
-0.01
EPA allowed / play61st of 138
+0.06
Pass TDs allowed6th of 138
5
Stuff rate20th of 137
14.0%
Kick ret yds (opp)133rd of 137
554
Kick ret (opp)Tied 132nd of 137
25
Points / game113th of 138
21.5
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
2795349.4/gm5.50/play108th of 13860th of 708th of 1012th of 12
Opp
2759344.9/gm5.35/play54th of 13836th of 705th of 101st of 12
Rush yards
Team
1251156.4/gm2.46/play73rd of 13839th of 703rd of 1010th of 12
Opp
1085135.6/gm2.10/play60th of 13843rd of 703rd of 101st of 12
Rush carries
Team
26533.1/gmTied 106th of 138Tied 56th of 705th of 1012th of 12
Opp
28035.0/gm58th of 13840th of 705th of 101st of 12
Rush TDs
Team
81.0/gmTied 120th of 138Tied 65th of 707th of 1012th of 12
Opp
162.0/gmTied 115th of 138Tied 64th of 709th of 102nd of 12
Net pass yards
Team
1544193.0/gm3.04/play113th of 13863rd of 7010th of 1012th of 12
Opp
1674209.2/gm3.24/playTied 60th of 13830th of 705th of 101st of 12
Pass attempts
Team
24330.4/gmTied 76th of 138Tied 43rd of 707th of 1012th of 12
Opp
23629.5/gmTied 56th of 138Tied 23rd of 705th of 101st of 12
Completions
Team
13316.6/gmTied 107th of 138Tied 60th of 709th of 1012th of 12
Opp
14818.5/gmTied 67th of 138Tied 31st of 707th of 101st of 12
Pass TDs
Team
91.1/gmTied 108th of 138Tied 62nd of 709th of 1012th of 12
Opp
50.6/gm6th of 1385th of 701st of 101st of 12
Passer rating
Team
114.6114.6128th of 13869th of 7010th of 1010th of 12
Opp
120.8120.839th of 13722nd of 705th of 103rd of 12
Interceptions thrown
Team
101.2/gmTied 132nd of 138Tied 67th of 7010th of 101st of 12
Opp
81.0/gmTied 23rd of 138Tied 13th of 70Tied 1st of 108th of 12
Sacks (def)
Team
182.2/gmTied 54th of 138Tied 32nd of 70Tied 2nd of 107th of 10
Opp
131.6/gmTied 46th of 138Tied 23rd of 70Tied 5th of 101st of 10
Tackles for loss
Team
516.4/gmTied 28th of 138Tied 19th of 70Tied 1st of 109th of 10
Opp
374.6/gmTied 46th of 138Tied 24th of 706th of 101st of 10
First downs
Team
14418.0/gmTied 119th of 13866th of 709th of 1012th of 12
Opp
13917.4/gmTied 31st of 138Tied 22nd of 703rd of 101st of 12
3rd-down conv
Team
415.1/gmTied 81st of 138Tied 45th of 70Tied 4th of 1012th of 12
Opp
455.6/gmTied 86th of 138Tied 47th of 708th of 101st of 12
3rd-down att
Team
10413.0/gmTied 85th of 138Tied 40th of 704th of 1012th of 12
Opp
11113.9/gmTied 75th of 138Tied 35th of 7010th of 101st of 12
4th-down conv
Team
70.9/gmTied 78th of 138Tied 38th of 70Tied 5th of 109th of 12
Opp
60.8/gmTied 32nd of 138Tied 16th of 70Tied 3rd of 101st of 12
4th-down att
Team
182.2/gmTied 33rd of 138Tied 15th of 703rd of 108th of 12
Opp
131.6/gmTied 45th of 138Tied 24th of 705th of 104th of 12
Time of possession
Team
222:2827:48/gm124th of 13863rd of 708th of 1012th of 12
Opp
257:3232:12/gm105th of 13859th of 708th of 101st of 12

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Pocket Passer · -0.06 EPA/play3565 / 12452.49067.356117.42834.85.45.3
Pocket Passer · -0.22 EPA/play14668 / 11857.66385.444107.53242.94.14.1
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Speed Merchant · +0.18 EPA/play28139889
#13 FBS		6.44548.717.4
Satellite Back · -0.01 EPA/play—8612734.5328156.7
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · -0.13 EPA/play172330713.3346
Move TE · +0.74 EPA/play1571721412.6036
Jump-Ball Target · +0.24 EPA/play1161420714.8240
Possession Receiver · +0.06 EPA/play661517411.6133
+0.94 EPA/play94513527183
+0.02 EPA/play5599810.9125
+0.07 EPA/play10688710.9013
+0.16 EPA/play747446.3011

Biggest plays from New Mexico State’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in New Mexico State’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q2, 10:07 · New Mexico State down 7, ties itJames Jones runs 1 yard for a touchdownNew Mexico State at Sam Houston, week 8Q2, 10:07 · New Mexico State 7, Sam Houston 7New Mexico State tied the game in the second quarterNew Mexico State tied the game in the second quarterJ.Jones rush left for 1 yard gain to the SAM00 touchdown,, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 0:24 · New Mexico State down 3, takes the leadAdam Damante finds AJ Williams III for a 27-yard touchdownNew Mexico State at Sam Houston, week 8Q2, 0:24 · New Mexico State 14, Sam Houston 10New Mexico State took the lead in the second quarterNew Mexico State took the lead in the second quarterAJ Williams III 27 yd pass from Adam Damante (Kyah Francone Kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q3, 10:35 · New Mexico State down 3, takes the leadAdam Damante finds AJ Williams III for a 5-yard touchdownNew Mexico State at Sam Houston, week 8Q3, 10:35 · New Mexico State 21, Sam Houston 17Go-ahead score for New Mexico State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for New Mexico State in the third quarterAJ Williams III 5 yd pass from Adam Damante (Kyah Francone Kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 8:28 · New Mexico State tiedNew Mexico State turns it overNew Mexico State at Sam Houston, week 8Q2, 8:28 · New Mexico State 7, Sam Houston 73New Mexico State’s turnover led to a field goal3New Mexico State’s turnover led to a field goalNew Mexico State’s turnover led to a field goalA.Williams III rush left for 5 yards loss to the NMS20 fumbled by A.Williams III at NMS18 recovered by SAM R.Adams at NMS20, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Backwards pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: A.Williams III rush left for 5 yards loss to the NMS20 fumbled by A.Williams III at NMS18 recovered by SAM R.Adams at NMS20, End Of Play)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 14:40 · Sam Houston down 4, takes the leadLandyn Locke finds Tim Burns Jr. for an 81-yard touchdownNew Mexico State at Sam Houston, week 8Q3, 14:40 · Sam Houston 17, New Mexico State 148181-yard touchdown pass8181-yard touchdown pass81-yard touchdown passTim Burns Jr. 81 yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q1, 7:02 · New Mexico State tiedWesley Miller intercepts Adam Damante and returns it 20 yardsNew Mexico State at Florida International, week 6Q1, 7:02 · New Mexico State 0, Florida International 07New Mexico State’s turnover led to a touchdown7New Mexico State’s turnover led to a touchdownNew Mexico State’s turnover led to a touchdownA.Damante pass intercepted by W.Miller at FIU27 W.Miller return 20 yards to the FIU47 (C.Su'esu'e)Watch from this playESPN College Football

All 31 plays from New Mexico State’s games

How scary each game got

New Mexico State lost to Jacksonville State after being 66% to win; the closest win was at Sam Houston, down to 18%

50%L1W1L2L4W5L6W8L9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave New Mexico State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · New Mexico State

through 8 games

James Jones leads New Mexico State with 889 rushing yards through 8 games.

1. James Jones RB 889 rushing yards
2. Nicolas Sessions S 58 tackles
3. Tory Gethers LB 55 tackles
4. Sone Aupiu LB 38 tackles
5. Gabe Peterson DE 30 tackles

Roster

Roster

2026
25 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
James Jones RB #17 of 330
Nicolas Sessions S #29 of 537
Gabe Peterson EDGE #26 of 405
Sone Aupiu LB #37 of 567
Josiah Charles CB #65 of 344
Tory Gethers LB #218 of 567

+19 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

New Mexico State fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a solid defense.

Offense
9th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
51% pass plays
Defense
56th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · New Mexico State · 2026

New Mexico State reads strongest in passing EPA allowed (top 20%) and explosive plays (top 39%); the crux lives in passing EPA, where New Mexico State sits at the 3rd percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play -0.01
9th
Success rate +0.40
29th
Explosive plays +1.27
61st
Rushing EPA +0.09
57th
Red-zone finish +2.63
6th

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed +0.06
56th
Success rate allowed +0.40
59th
Explosive plays allowed +1.27
37th
Passing EPA allowed +0.04
81st
Red-zone defense +3.44
50th

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +27.43
17th
Passing EPA -0.06
3rd
Rushing EPA allowed +0.02
55th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 8 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

New Mexico State is worth +6.7 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 89th percentile of 133 programs

38% at home, 22% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (13-21 home, 11-39 away). Interval ±3.9.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, New Mexico State has beaten the number by +1.7 more at home than away over 93 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Aggie Memorial Stadium seats 28,853 and has averaged 44% full (12,599, 23 games reported). Visitors face the 2nd-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 1,055 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 7% of the 2026 roster (7 of 104 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 43 home games since 2018.

Home13-21Away11-39Edge+6.7 ±3.9Visitor trip1,055 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Usage splitsDonovan Faupel is the money-down target

How the players get used

From the 2025 season's play-by-play

  • Money downDonovan Faupel is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
  • Deep threatDonovan Faupel is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
  • Deep threatGlynn Johnson Jr is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

James Jones and Terrell Washington Jr. split the carries (138/198 vs 60/198) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Terrell Washington Jr. owns the receiving work.

James JonesTerrell Washington Jr.
Carries
13860
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
12/164/16
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
10/2818/28
p = 0.000 -- real, not noise
Top-5-carry share
23.5%29.5%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Tyler King (WR) and Josiah Thomas (TE) split the targets (47/71 vs 24/71) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Tyler KingJosiah Thomas
Targets
4724
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
8/179/17
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
5/94/9
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
60.6%59.7%
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

New Mexico State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 38th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 2nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 38th pctileCompetitive snaps only · 2nd pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does New Mexico State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

14th percentile success on standard downs, 36th on passing downs — a 22-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantNew Mexico StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Fragile off scheduleBalancedWeak both waysStandard downs onlyNew Mexico StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
Air Force98th23rd
Akron58th34th
Alabama77th57th
App State33rd49th
Arizona76th94th
Arizona State38th61st
Arkansas71st24th
Arkansas State85th59th
Army93rd58th
Auburn14th69th
BYU86th35th
Ball State31st52nd
Baylor15th46th
Boise State77th92nd
Boston College63rd28th
Bowling Green43rd21st
Buffalo9th11th
California11th20th
Central Michigan36th9th
Charlotte18th41st
Cincinnati68th83rd
Clemson7th39th
Coastal Carolina23rd64th
Colorado16th65th
Colorado State66th95th
Delaware59th64th
Duke21st67th
East Carolina37th19th
Eastern Michigan16th30th
Florida61st70th
Florida Atlantic67th87th
Florida International20th53rd
Florida State30th90th
Fresno State25th84th
Gardner-Webb5th23rd
Georgia98th89th
Georgia Southern60th71st
Georgia State68th66th
Georgia Tech53rd40th
Hawai'i48th29th
Houston87th99th
Illinois73rd91st
Indiana55th44th
Iowa79th13th
Iowa State18th31st
Jacksonville State82nd80th
James Madison45th77th
Kansas52nd18th
Kansas State64th68th
Kennesaw State61st16th
Kent State5th21st
Kentucky90th51st
LSU86th98th
Liberty93rd78th
Louisiana36th66th
Louisiana Tech26th79th
Louisville95th72nd
Maine0th86th
Marshall69th32nd
Maryland34th26th
Massachusetts35th38th
Memphis92nd93rd
Mercyhurst2nd34th
Miami99th95th
Miami (OH)50th43rd
Michigan10th89th
Michigan State23rd55th
Middle Tennessee27th64th
Minnesota32nd4th
Mississippi State66th59th
Missouri34th41st
Missouri State52nd30th
NC State62nd77th
Navy89th17th
Nebraska46th85th
Nevada28th27th
New Mexico55th48th
New Mexico State14th36th
Norfolk State7th0th
North Carolina89th73rd
North Dakota State30th45th
North Texas95th84th
Northern Illinois51st14th
Northwestern88th88th
Notre Dame100th43rd
Ohio82nd42nd
Ohio State84th80th
Oklahoma4th50th
Oklahoma State96th86th
Old Dominion1st36th
Ole Miss81st94th
Oregon39th26th
Oregon State97th70th
Penn State20th47th
Pittsburgh65th50th
Purdue57th82nd
Rice59th14th
Robert Morris2nd5th
Rutgers42nd81st
SMU91st82nd
Sacramento State13th6th
Sam Houston11th37th
San Diego State8th54th
San José State17th2nd
South Alabama44th74th
South Carolina70th56th
South Florida84th57th
Southern Miss48th7th
Stanford40th9th
Syracuse57th39th
TCU70th10th
Temple50th68th
Tennessee75th12th
Texas27th61st
Texas A&M46th55th
Texas State74th100th
Texas Tech64th76th
Toledo73rd52nd
Troy39th15th
Tulane12th8th
Tulsa49th7th
UAB24th62nd
UCF29th45th
UCLA80th60th
UConn72nd73rd
UL Monroe47th11th
UNLV41st19th
USC79th97th
UT Martin6th3rd
UTEP9th1st
UTSA91st33rd
Utah94th98th
Utah State3rd76th
Vanderbilt41st32nd
Virginia83rd2nd
Virginia Tech43rd91st
Wake Forest75th96th
Washington56th16th
Washington State19th5th
West Virginia54th75th
Western Kentucky22nd25th
Western Michigan32nd27th
Wisconsin25th22nd
Wyoming78th48th

New Mexico State by half

1st-half offense ranks 10th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 5th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 10th pctile2nd half · 5th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

How much of New Mexico State’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is -0.01; 4th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.03. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.29 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.

0.340.13-0.08Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.340.13-0.08Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

How New Mexico State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: David Yost (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 53% → 2026: 41% · 12-pt range · #53 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 58% → 2026: 41% · 17-pt range · #54 of 184 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2025: 20% → 2026: 42% · 22-pt range · #55 of 184 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), New Mexico State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 195-play sample) — mid-pack, 8 of 136 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), New Mexico State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 50 of 137 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 273 claims, 273 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=195 short-zone plays, raw rate 58.5%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=192 short-zone plays, raw rate 64.6%
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.156, 46th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.156
46th
Havoc allowed (O) 0.161
37th
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.105
65th
Secondary havoc (D) 0.052
27th
Stuff rate (D) 0.238
84th
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.141
90th
Line yards (O) 3.119
69th
Line yards allowed (D) 2.640
74th
Standard-downs success (O) 0.432
19th
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.434
67th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.317
52nd
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.321
25th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

43% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.

3 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

30% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~18% league average.

8 interceptions of 27 disrupted passes (19 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

52 penalties committed, 62 drawn on opponents — netting a 103-yard field-position edge.

405 penalty yards committed vs. 508 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank New Mexico State

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#131

-6.8

SP+

#119

-13.4

FPI

#125

-15.6

Elo

#123

1206

SRS

#129

-16.0

The national models put New Mexico State between 119th and 129th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 131st.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · New Mexico State

Reads like

CharlotteAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StatePac-12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontEast CarolinaAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

WeatherHow warm or cold its home and road games usually are.

Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Usual during the game around Nov 7: 61°, between 53° and 68° in about 7 in 10 games (24 games since 2016).

Road games since 2016: the middle game was 72°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 80° (54 of 60 road games, at stadiums we cover).

HomeRoad

What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time

Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure

Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site