Hawai'i

1-2

Mountain West · Timmy Chang, year 5 (23-31) · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 15,194 · 13,959 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#76 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #91 (-7.0) · FPI #103
The marketno line yetat Wyoming · our model 53% Hawai'i · a number, not a pick

LastW 29–19 vs New Mexico State · Sat Sep 12 · Elijah Palmer 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 5 tackles

Nextat Wyoming · Sat Sep 26 · 3 pm ET · War Memorial Stadium · series 12-17 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
20.7
Pts allowed/game
25.7
Total yards/gm#27 / 138 · 81st pct
345.3
Rush yards/gm#116 / 138 · 16th pct
77.0
Pass yards/gm#5 / 138 · 97th pct
268.3
Yards allowed/gm#137 / 138 · 1st pct
409.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct
181.7
SacksT-#106 / 138 · 16th pct
2
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down convT-#71 / 138 · 49th pct
40.7%
All 95 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1036345.3/gm4.67/play#27 / 138 · 81st pct#18 / 70 · 75th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
1227409.0/gm6.20/play#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
23177.0/gm1.04/play#116 / 138 · 16th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
545181.7/gm2.75/play#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
8127.0/gmT-#44 / 138 · 67th pct#23 / 70 · 68th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
11137.0/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
41.3/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 70 · 44th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
72.3/gmT-#132 / 138 · 4th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
805268.3/gm3.63/play#5 / 138 · 97th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
682227.3/gm3.44/play#131 / 138 · 5th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
14147.0/gm#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
8729.0/gmT-#129 / 138 · 6th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
8227.3/gm#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4916.3/gmT-#121 / 138 · 12th pctT-#62 / 70 · 11th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.0/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 70 · 31st pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
20.7/gmT-#45 / 138 · 57th pctT-#29 / 70 · 46th pctT-#3 / 10 · 65th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
110.3110.3#106 / 115 · 8th pct#59 / 60 · 2nd pct#10 / 13 · 31st pct
Opp
127.5127.5#50 / 91 · 46th pct#30 / 42 · 30th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.3/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pctT-#5 / 10 · 40th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
20.7/gmT-#77 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#40 / 70 · 29th pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
20.7/gmT-#106 / 138 · 16th pctT-#61 / 70 · 9th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
82.7/gmT-#133 / 138 · 4th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
113.7/gmT-#63 / 138 · 49th pctT-#37 / 70 · 42nd pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
217.0/gmT-#136 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
6020.0/gmT-#9 / 138 · 93rd pct#5 / 70 · 94th pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6220.7/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#8 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
227.3/gm#2 / 138 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
186.0/gmT-#130 / 138 · 4th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
5418.0/gm#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4113.7/gm#133 / 138 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
41.3/gmT-#13 / 138 · 88th pctT-#7 / 70 · 87th pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.3/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
51.7/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 70 · 74th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
51.7/gmT-#98 / 138 · 25th pctT-#54 / 70 · 20th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
93:2431:08/gm#3 / 138 · 98th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
86:3628:52/gm#131 / 138 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Pocket Passer · +0.13 EPA/play12381 / 13759.1794
#3 FBS
5.821111.23352.75.15.5
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Satellite Back · +0.06 EPA/play1342167
#46 FBS
4.03
#11 FBS
16
-0.20 EPA/play26320663.3111
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.30 EPA/play6315180
#38 FBS
12032
Slot Technician · +0.83 EPA/play8318169
#48 FBS
9.4122
+0.46 EPA/play23813416.8055
+0.41 EPA/play18366611024
+0.02 EPA/play2236294.809

2026 stat leaders · Hawai'i

through 3 games

Kona Moore leads Hawai'i with 30 tackles through 3 games.

1. Kona Moore DB 30 tackles
2. Jamih Otis LB 25 tackles
3. Micah Alejado QB 794 passing yards
4. Kainoa Carvalho WR 180 receiving yards
5. Matagi Thompson DB 15 tackles
How They Play · 2026

Hawai'i fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a porous defense.

Offense
25th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
64% pass plays
Defense
15th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Hawai'i · 2026

Hawai'i reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 25%) and explosive plays (top 65%); the crux lives in red-zone defense, where Hawai'i sits at the 5th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.04
25th
Success Rate +0.37
15th
Explosive Plays +1.17
35th
Rushing EPA -0.06
5th
Red-Zone Finish +3.68
35th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.20
15th
Success Rate Allowed +0.43
25th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.27
35th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.13
75th
Red-Zone Defense +4.20
5th

hidden math · special situations

Field Position (O) +27.17
35th
Passing EPA +0.14
35th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.23
15th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 3 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 10 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Hawai'i · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Hawai'i is worth +5.9 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 79th percentile of 133 programs

60% at home, 28% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (29–19 home, 13–33 away). Interval ±3.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Hawai'i has beaten the number by +3.6 more at home than away over 80 games — inside the ±7.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex seats 15,194 and has averaged 79% full (12,033, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 1st-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 2,968 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 49% of the 2026 roster (49 of 99 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.

Home29–19Away13–33Edge+5.9 ±3.8Visitor trip2,968 mi

More in this tab

Position battlesReps are split -- here's who's actually winning them.

Positional competition · RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

DeVon Rice and Sitani Mikaele split the carries (43/63 vs 20/63) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

DeVon RiceSitani Mikaele
Carries
4320
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
18/202/20
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
35.5%59.1%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Hawai'i's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 32nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 27th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 32nd pctileCompetitive snaps only · 27t…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Hawai'i hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

18th percentile success on standard downs, 41st on passing downs — a 23-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantHawai'iWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

Hawai'i by half

1st-half offense ranks 15th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 23rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 15th p…2nd half · 23rd pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Hawai'i’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Anthony Arceneaux (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 56% → 2026: 57% · 1-pt range · #181 of 184 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 61% → 2026: 64% · 3-pt range · #178 of 182 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2025: 28% → 2026: 30% · 2-pt range · #172 of 172 · less than most
Defense: Dennis Thurman (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 56% → 2026: 57% · 1-pt range · #202 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 66% → 2026: 64% · 6-pt range · #179 of 200 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 23% → 2026: 30% · 7-pt range · #173 of 189 · less than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Hawai'i’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.4% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 134-play sample) — most conservative, 2 of 41 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Hawai'i’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.2% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 74-play sample) — stingiest, 3 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=134 short-zone plays, raw rate 59.0%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=74 short-zone plays, raw rate 56.8%
Havoc & trenchesDisruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc & trenches

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc Rate (D) 0.147
65th
Havoc Allowed (O) 0.169
25th
Front-Seven Havoc (D) 0.073
25th
Secondary Havoc (D) 0.074
65th
Stuff Rate (D) 0.127
5th
Stuff Rate Allowed (O) 0.179
55th
Line Yards (O) 3.068
55th
Line Yards Allowed (D) 3.238
25th
Standard-Downs Success (O) 0.412
5th
Standard-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.489
25th
Passing-Downs Success (O) 0.299
55th
Passing-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.262
65th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Hawai'i

CFB Zeitgeist

#76

-0.6

SP+

#91

-7.0

FPI

#103

-8.3

Elo

#80

1432

The national models put Hawai'i between 80th and 103rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 76th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Hawai'i

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

79°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 13 mph average wind.

Based on 80 home games with weather data.

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