The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jeff Choate

Followed Ken Wilson. Jeff Choate held Nevada at Regional Program IV for 3 seasons.

6–19

2024–now · 1 stint

In his own words

I don’t care what sport you play, when you have people behind you, that is the home-field advantage
Nevadasagebrush · Sep 6, 2026 · the day of Nevada's 2026 opener

I don’t live life looking in a rearview mirror

NevadasagebrushAug 7, 2026

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Nevada, 3 seasons (active)

−2.8

Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Nevada4.0pt#237 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–2 against his rivals.

Rivalry record

0–2

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

3–9

25.0% · margin ≤8

Buyout owed

$2,700,000

bigger than 29% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

UNLV0–20%

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

0–2 0.0%

National Program

1–4 20.0%

Regional Program

4–12 25.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.09

#197 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.11

#227 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now

Nevadacaretaker

Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV

Jeff Choate held Nevada at Regional Program IV for 3 seasons.

11th-best Nevada tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-4.2 pts

#131 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-14.7 pts

#162 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Ken Wilson (2022–2023).

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3–10	3–9	0–0
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#127	#88	#98
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.3	42.6	40.3
Coordinators
OC	Matt Lubick	David Gilbertson	David Gilbertson
DC	Kane Ioane	Kane Ioane	Kane Ioane
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	56	13	83
Defense	16	34	32
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	41.0	34.1	38.8
Red-zone pass%	29.9	40.3	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	48.5	34.9	—

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-19

#46 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 242 lbs

across 36 of 56 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+3.4 lbs

#138 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#137 of 255 · a typical amount

Top states: TX (9), CA (9), WA (4), NV (3), GA (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.9

position-weighted

Net

-3.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Luke Duncan (QB) from UCLA

Biggest loss: Chubba Purdy (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Matt Lubick → David Gilbertson · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 41.0% → 34.1% (-6.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

207 lbs

6′3″ avg · #544 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

203 lbs

5′10″ avg · #548 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

192 lbs

6′1″ avg · #421 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

262 lbs

6′4″ avg · #16 of 731 · more than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′4″ avg · #569 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

280 lbs

6′2″ avg · #454 of 753 · a typical amount

Cornerback

187 lbs

5′11″ avg · #553 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Safety via the portal

80%

#14 of 218 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Kitan Crawford (2025)

AI Narratives — “Nevada — stat check” and 2 more on the team page.

6–19