Jeff Choate

Head coach · Nevada
3rd season · since 2024

At Nevada9-24since 2024 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatHot27% · 11th of 132 jobsLast gameL 0-27at UCLA · Oct 31Nextvs New MexicoFri Nov 6 · 9 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 0-27 at UCLA Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • Hot seat27% 11th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. New Mexico Fri Nov 6
  • Stature122nd of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 20%. Lose and he’s at 27%.

vs. New Mexico, Fri Nov 6, 9 pm ET CBS Sports Network · No. 22 New Mexico is 7-1 · Choate vs. Jason Eck: 0-1 · Nevada’s chance to win: 14% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Nevada wins: 20%, 21st of 132Now: 27%If Nevada loses: 27%, 11th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Nevada wins: 20%, 21st of 132
  • Now: 27%
  • If Nevada loses: 27%, 11th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

27% chance he’s out after the season · 11th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow19% had they won19% had they wonLoss 27%Win 20%46%31%34%38%39%32%32%25%27%Pre1W vs. Western KentuckyW2L vs. Montana StateL3L at Middle TennesseeL4L vs. Air ForceL5W at UTEPW6L at North Dakota StateL7W vs. San José StateW8L at UCLAL9Chance to win vs. New Mexico14%10Chance to win at Northern Illinois65%11Chance to win vs. Hawai'i44%12Chance to win at UNLV28%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow19% had they wonLoss 27%Win 20%46%27%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-936%
  2. 4-827%
  3. 5-720%
  4. 6-614%
  5. 7-59%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (4 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (5 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (9 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (10 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (11 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 28%, 6th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 31%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 31%, 7th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 36%, 6th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 38%, 6th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 39%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 42%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 42%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 40%, 6th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 34%, 9th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 30%, 13th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 38%, 5th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 39%, 8th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 41%, 8th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 32%, 11th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 25%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 27%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 27%, 11th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 10▲ 1-7, outscored by 108

Hottest: 2025, week 10 (42%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-7, outscored by 108

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    6-19 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscoring opponents by 3
  • ▲ Hotter
    $2.7M buyout · 2.5× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,700,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.5× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 19%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

A few stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4

Offense: 100th of 138 per play. Defense: 68th.

Offense, per play100thOffense, staying on schedule104thDefense, per play68thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule14thWorstBest
Offense, per play100th of 138Offense, staying on schedule104th of 138Defense, per play68th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule14th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Nevada. The other two rows are where Nevada stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6vs. New Mexico (7-1)CBS Sports Network14%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Northern Illinois (0-8)MW+65%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Hawai'i (2-6)44%
  4. Sat Nov 28at UNLV (5-3)CBS Sports Network28%

Percent: Nevada’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Nevada stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

114th120th126thPreseason119thWestern Kentucky W 49-14Western Kentucky W 49-14W 49-14Western Kentu…120thMontana State L 7-20Montana State L 7-20L 7-20Montana State120thMiddle Tennessee L 20-27Middle Tennessee L 20-27L 20-27Middle Tennes…120thAir Force L 33-36Air Force L 33-36L 33-36Air Force122ndUTEP W 30-13UTEP W 30-13W 30-13UTEP122ndNorth Dakota State L 17-31North Dakota State L 17-31L 17-31North Dakota …120thSan José State W 28-13San José State W 28-13W 28-13San José State119thUCLA L 0-27UCLA L 0-27L 0-27UCLA121st
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 0-27 at UCLA1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 28-13 vs. San José State2 headlines · 73rd of 138'Those guys played lights out.' Jeff Choate, players after homecoming win over SJSU Nevada Sports Net
  3. Oct 12–18L 17-31 at North Dakota State6 headlines · 47th of 138'They got us tonight.' Jeff Choate, players after loss to North Dakota State Nevada Sports Net
  4. Oct 5–11W 30-13 at UTEP1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game1 headline · 82nd of 138WPAA+: Jeff Choate details loss to Air Force, previews bye-week Nevada Sports Net
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 33-36 vs. Air Force1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Nevada’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.