Nevada

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Utah State and Nevada schedule future football seriesour readThe UNLV rivalry

Mountain West · Jeff Choate, year 3 (7-20) · Mackay Stadium · 27,000 · 20,541 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#134 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #87 (-6.1) · FPI #88
The marketNevada by 3.5at Middle Tennessee · our model 28% Nevada · a number, not a pick

LastL 7–20 vs Montana State · Sat Sep 12 · EJ Smith 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 10 tackles

Nextat Middle Tennessee · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Nevada by 3.5 · series 0-1 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
28.0
Pts allowed/game
17.0
Total yards/gm#68 / 138 · 51st pct
417.5
Rush yards/gmT-#19 / 138 · 86th pct
252.5
Pass yards/gm#117 / 138 · 16th pct
165.0
Yards allowed/gm#82 / 138 · 41st pct
348.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#102 / 138 · 26th pct
157.5
SacksT-#20 / 138 · 80th pct
6
3rd-down convT-#79 / 138 · 42nd pct
39.1%
All 87 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
835417.5/gm6.47/play#68 / 138 · 51st pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
697348.5/gm4.81/play#82 / 138 · 41st pct#55 / 70 · 22nd pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
505252.5/gm3.91/playT-#19 / 138 · 86th pctT-#12 / 70 · 83rd pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
315157.5/gm2.17/play#102 / 138 · 26th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7738.5/gmT-#57 / 138 · 58th pctT-#27 / 70 · 59th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
8241.0/gmT-#113 / 138 · 18th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
52.5/gmT-#35 / 138 · 70th pctT-#23 / 70 · 60th pctT-#3 / 10 · 70th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#3 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
330165.0/gm2.56/play#117 / 138 · 16th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
382191.0/gm2.63/play#60 / 138 · 57th pct#39 / 70 · 45th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5226.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#54 / 70 · 22nd pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6331.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 38th pctT-#45 / 70 · 36th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2814.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 17th pctT-#62 / 70 · 11th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3919.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#47 / 70 · 31st pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 70 · 31st pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#1 / 10 · 90th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating allowed#21 / 91 · 77th pct#17 / 42 · 61st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
105.4105.4
Interceptions thrown
Team
42.0/gmT-#3 / 138 · 97th pctT-#2 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 92nd pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
63.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 78th pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 97th pctT-#1 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
126.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 59th pctT-#33 / 70 · 51st pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#8 / 138 · 93rd pctT-#7 / 70 · 89th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4221.0/gmT-#73 / 138 · 45th pctT-#44 / 70 · 35th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4422.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 23rd pct#63 / 70 · 11th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pctT-#7 / 10 · 30th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#50 / 70 · 28th pctT-#3 / 10 · 70th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2311.5/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#43 / 70 · 34th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3015.0/gmT-#89 / 138 · 31st pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.5/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
63.0/gmT-#16 / 138 · 85th pctT-#8 / 70 · 86th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
54:4527:22/gm#115 / 138 · 17th pct#60 / 70 · 15th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
65:1532:38/gm#105 / 138 · 24th pct#60 / 70 · 15th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.67 EPA/play619 / 156016310.921181.9—72——
+0.14 EPA/play10112 / 20601165.811115.2————
-0.66 EPA/play1217 / 1643.8513.20245.5————
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+1.44 EPA/play—228236
#11 FBS		8.42
#43 FBS		72——
+0.31 EPA/play12201005112——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.50 EPA/play5257114.2132
-0.07 EPA/play1129455014

2026 stat leaders · Nevada

through 2 games

EJ Smith leads Nevada with 24 tackles through 2 games.

1. EJ Smith LB 24 tackles
2. Dominic Kelley RB 236 rushing yards
3. Dylan Labarbera EDGE 15 tackles
4. Jeremy Naborne LB 14 tackles
5. Larry Turner-Gooden DB 7 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Nevada fields a struggling offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
6th pct EPA/play
Defense
28th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
72nd pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Nevada · 2025

Nevada reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 29%) and passing epa allowed (top 49%); the crux lives in passing epa, where Nevada sits at the 4th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.03
6th
Success Rate +0.37
13th
Explosive Plays +1.21
29th
Rushing EPA +0.06
35th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.19
28th
Success Rate Allowed +0.43
31st
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.20
72nd
Passing EPA Allowed +0.23
52nd

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.02
4th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.19
8th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Nevada · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Nevada is worth +4.1 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 48th percentile of 133 programs

48% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (20–22 home, 15–31 away). Interval ±4.2.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Nevada has beaten the number by +0.6 more at home than away over 75 games — inside the ±7.9 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Mackay Stadium seats 27,000 and has averaged 67% full (18,082, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 491 miles to get here since 2018 — 55th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 19% of the 2026 roster (19 of 101 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 49 home games since 2018.

Home20–22Away15–31Edge+4.1 ±4.2Visitor trip491 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Nevada hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

77th percentile success on standard downs, 52nd on passing downs — a 25-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantNevadaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Nevada’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: David Gilbertson (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 34% → 2026: 39% · 5-pt range · #155 of 184 · less than most
Defense: Kane Ioane (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 41% → 2026: 39% · 7-pt range · #147 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 30% → 2025: 40% · 10-pt range · #139 of 200 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 48% → 2025: 35% · 14-pt range · #112 of 189 · a typical amount
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Nevada

CFB Zeitgeist

#134

-7.3

SP+

#87

-6.1

FPI

#88

-5.1

Elo

#77

1451

The national models put Nevada between 77th and 88th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 134th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Nevada

Reads like

CharlotteAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StatePac-12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontEast CarolinaAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Nevada’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.

Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.

Colorado State 1936–1941
kept sliding
Arkansas State 1990–1995
stayed down
Kansas 1953–1958
clawed back
SMU 1986–1993
kept sliding

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

61°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.

Based on 73 home games with weather data.

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