Louisiana Tech beats South Alabama 35-20

Louisiana Tech6-235
South Alabama4-420Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala. · Crowd 13,078ESPN+

Louisiana Tech beat South Alabama 35-20.

We had Louisiana Tech favored. It won.

Next: Louisiana Tech at Troy, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET · Louisiana Tech favored by 4.5

Next: South Alabama at Louisiana, Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET · South Alabama underdog by 8.5

How it swung

The turning point: Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1, 8:12). Louisiana Tech went from 38% to 58% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana Tech a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana Tech was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.

Louisiana Tech won by 15, after dipping to 35% in the first quarter.

South Alabama never had better than a 65% chance.

FinalLouisiana Tech 35-20 South AlabamaLouisiana Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q478% at halfLouisiana TechWon35-2012+20+17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q478% at halfLouisiana TechWon35-2012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q422% at halfLouisiana TechLowest 0%Lost20-3512−20−17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q422% at halfLouisiana TechLowest 0%Lost20-3512Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:12Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Louisiana Tech 38% → 58% (+20)
  2. 2Q2 13:03Baker 22-yd TD pass to Calwise, ties it 14-14Louisiana Tech 42% → 59% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:12Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7South Alabama 62% → 42% (−20)
  2. 2Q2 13:03Baker 22-yd TD pass to Calwise, ties it 14-14South Alabama 58% → 41% (−17)
Louisiana Tech’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Louisiana Tech -6), at 52% for Louisiana Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Louisiana Tech scored on 5 of its 13 drives; South Alabama on 3 of its 12.

Louisiana Tech’s drives are teal, South Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Louisiana Tech: Punt, from 82 yards out to 89PuntSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 91 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2South Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 70 yards out to 47DownsLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntLouisiana Tech: End of half, from 89 yards out to 91End of halfQ3South Alabama: Punt, from 65 yards out to 50PuntLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 89 yards out to 80PuntSouth Alabama: Punt, from 37 yards out to 43PuntLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 91 yards out to 90PuntSouth Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 52 yards out to 31DownsLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 69 yards out to 61PuntSouth Alabama: Fumble, from 93 yards out to 90FumbleLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 10 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Punt, from 70 yards out to 57PuntQ4Louisiana Tech: Punt, from 85 yards out to 71PuntSouth Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 86 yards out to 31DownsLouisiana Tech: Turned over on downs, from 69 yards out to 29DownsSouth Alabama: Interception, from 71 yards out to 28InterceptionLouisiana Tech: End of game, from 96 yards out to 100End of game

From South Alabama’s side

South Alabama’s best moment: Phillips 11-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-20 (Q2 6:47). It lifted South Alabama’s win chance by 15 points.

What it cost

Louisiana Tech’s chance to win the conference rose from 22% to 29%.

Win the conference

Louisiana Tech · won22% → ▲29%22%▲ 29%
South Alabama · lost7% → ▼2%7%▼ 2%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Louisiana Tech plays at Troy on Sat Nov 7 with a 29% chance to win the conference. South Alabama plays at Louisiana on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Louisiana Tech 35, South Alabama 20

Louisiana Tech covered −6 by 9. The total, 55, stayed under 57.5.

Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaTotal yardsLouisiana Tech 315South Alabama 397315397Passing yardsLouisiana Tech 194South Alabama 192194192Rushing yardsLouisiana Tech 121South Alabama 205121205First downsLouisiana Tech 16South Alabama 241624TurnoversLouisiana Tech 0South Alabama 202Time of possessionLouisiana Tech 26:37South Alabama 33:2326:3733:23
Team totalsLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
Total yards315397
Passing11 of 17, 194 yds14 of 31, 192 yds
Rushing40 for 121 yds44 for 205 yds
First downs1624
Third down2 of 106 of 14
Fourth down0 of 11 of 4
Turnovers02
Penalties4 for 29 yds12 for 100 yds
Time of possession26:3733:23

Louisiana Tech leaders

  • Passing Blake Baker 10 of 16, 167 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Rayshun Hurt 6 for 40 yds; Blake Baker 16 for 35 yds
  • Receiving Marcus Calwise Jr. 3 for 68 yds, 2 TD; Rayshun Hurt 1 for 67 yds

South Alabama leaders

  • Passing Jared Hollins 14 of 31, 192 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing PJ Martin 12 for 82 yds; Keenan Phillips 11 for 62 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Anthony Eager 7 for 102 yds, 2 TD; Rod Gibbs 1 for 22 yds

No rain and calm

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the east-southeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 22

The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 52° and 73°.

Game-day temperatures at Hancock Whitney Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4South Alabama favoredLouisiana Tech favored0%Win chanceSouth AlabamaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4South Alabama favoredLouisiana Tech favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 8:12 left2:23 p.m.
Louisiana Tech 7, South Alabama 7 · South Alabama 42% to win
no rain · wind 13 mph from the east-southeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 20 · 80°
Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Mobile/bates Field, 3.2 miles away, and Mobile Downtown airport, 8.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Louisiana Tech · 5-2

Rated 88th in our preseason ratings, 55th now, up 33 spots.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 19-36 @ Baylor No. 35 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 20.5-point underdog

Louisiana Tech lost 19-36 at Baylor. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 14-45 @ LSUTop 25 No. 24 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 34.5-point underdog

Louisiana Tech lost 14-45 at LSU. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Last three games

South Alabama · 4-3

Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 94th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Arkansas State as a 3-point underdog.

L 21-45 @ KentuckyTop 25 No. 69 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 20.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 21-45 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 37%.

L 24-28 @ Tulane No. 71 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 24-28 at Tulane. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 66%.

Week by week

South Alabama

Wk 3: W 41-36 vs Ohio▲5OhioWk 4: L 21-45 at Kentucky▼24KentuckyWk 5: W 52-35 vs UL Monroe▲17UL MonroeWk 6: W 56-49 at Arkansas State▲7A. St.Wk 8: L 13-20 at Marshall▼7Marshall
  • Wk 3Wvs Ohio41-36
  • Wk 4Lat Kentucky21-45
  • Wk 5Wvs UL Monroe52-35
  • Wk 6Wat Arkansas State56-49
  • Wk 8Lat Marshall13-20

Louisiana Tech

Wk 3: L 19-36 at Baylor▼17BaylorWk 5: W 31-29 vs Army▲2ArmyWk 6: W 32-31 vs Louisiana▲1LouisianaWk 7: W 24-0 at UL Monroe▲24UL MonroeWk 8: W 26-0 vs Old Dominion▲26Old Domi…
  • Wk 3Lat Baylor19-36
  • Wk 5Wvs Army31-29
  • Wk 6Wvs Louisiana32-31
  • Wk 7Wat UL Monroe24-0
  • Wk 8Wvs Old Dominion26-0

Power rating by week

Louisiana Tech is rated 3.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

41-3Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8South AlabamaLouisiana Tech

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisiana Tech’s passing EPA against South Alabama, 67 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Louisiana Tech’s passing EPA against South Alabama’s defense

    67 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 80th percentile · South Alabama defense, 13th

  2. Louisiana Tech’s explosive plays against South Alabama’s defense

    58 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 72nd percentile · South Alabama defense, 14th

  3. Louisiana Tech’s EPA/play against South Alabama’s defense

    51 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 54th percentile · South Alabama defense, 3rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
EPA/play, offense
Louisiana Tech · 54South Alabama · 61
EPA/play, defense
Louisiana Tech · 91South Alabama · 3
Success rate, offense
Louisiana Tech · 31South Alabama · 56
Success rate, defense
Louisiana Tech · 83South Alabama · 4
Explosive-play rate, offense
Louisiana Tech · 72South Alabama · 80
Explosive-play rate, defense
Louisiana Tech · 31South Alabama ·…
Rush EPA, offense
Louisiana Tech · 18South Alabama · 81
Rush EPA, defense
Louisiana Tech · 76South Alabama ·…
Pass EPA, offense
Louisiana Tech · 80South Alabama · 69
Pass EPA, defense
Louisiana Tech · 91South Alabama · 13

The series

Louisiana Tech leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2017 · South Alabama won the last meeting

  • 2022South Alabama 38-14South Alabama won 38-14 vs Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 85%, low 54%, high 99%.
  • 2018Louisiana Tech 30-26South Alabama lost 26-30 vs Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 20%, low 3%, high 27%.
  • 2017Louisiana Tech 34-16

Each line is South Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisiana Tech fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (86th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 31% · Line 31%South Alabama fans · 88thLouisiana Tech fans · 86thLouisiana TechSouth Alabama

Louisiana Tech favored by 6 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Louisiana Tech by 6, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Louisiana Tech.

opened +3.5now +6

The total rose 1 point.

opened 56.5now 57.5

Spread: +3.5 → +6 · Total: 56.5 → 57.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

South Alabama is worth +3.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 36th percentile.

45% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-24 home, 17-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 292 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings