Southern routs Florida A&M 42-14

Team pages: Southern · Florida A&M

Southern4-542
Florida A&M2-714Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Bragg Memorial Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 10,224

Southern routed Florida A&M 42-14.

We had Florida A&M favored. Southern won.

Next: Southern vs Bethune-Cookman, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: Florida A&M at Alcorn State, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Davis 10-yd TD run, Southern leads 14-0 (Q1, 0:22). Southern went from 54% to 76% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern a 38% chance, and the closing betting line (Southern was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.

FinalSouthern 42-14 Florida A&MSouthern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfSouthernFlorida A&MLowest 19%Won42-1412+15+22Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfSouthernLowest 19%Won42-1412Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfFlorida A&MSouthernLowest 0%High 81%Lost14-4212−15−22Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfSouthernLowest 0%High 81%Lost14-4212Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:01Holly 1-yd TD run, Southern goes ahead 7-0Southern 34% → 49% (+15)
  2. 2Q1 0:22Davis 10-yd TD run, Southern leads 14-0Southern 54% → 76% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:01Holly 1-yd TD run, Southern goes ahead 7-0Florida A&M 66% → 51% (−15)
  2. 2Q1 0:22Davis 10-yd TD run, Southern leads 14-0Florida A&M 46% → 24% (−22)
Southern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Florida A&M -6.5), at 22% for Southern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Southern scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Florida A&M on 2 of its 11.

Southern’s drives are teal, Florida A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Florida A&M: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 34DownsSouthern: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntSouthern: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntQ2Southern: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntFlorida A&M: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Interception, from 67 yards out to 68InterceptionSouthern: Touchdown, from 31 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 51 yards out to 3Interception TDFlorida A&M: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: End of half, from 75 yards out to 64End of halfQ3Southern: Punt, from 71 yards out to 65PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 57 yards out to 59PuntSouthern: Punt, from 81 yards out to 34PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 95 yards out to 66PuntSouthern: Punt, from 86 yards out to 49PuntQ4Florida A&M: Turned over on downs, from 89 yards out to 22DownsSouthern: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsSouthern: End of game, from 60 yards out to 61End of game

Box score

Southern 42, Florida A&M 14

Southern covered +6.5 by 34.5. The total, 56, went over 52.5.

Southern leaders

  • Passing Christian Johnson 7 of 9, 112 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Trey Holly 25 for 204 yds, 2 TD; Champ Davis 13 for 62 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Cam Jefferson 1 for 32 yds; Daejawn Smith 1 for 32 yds

Florida A&M leaders

  • Passing Armond Parker 18 of 31, 263 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Armond Parker 11 for 27 yds; Jamal Hailey 6 for 20 yds
  • Receiving Corey Petty 7 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Armand Burris 4 for 60 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Southern · 3-5

Rated 201st in our preseason ratings, 227th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Prairie View A&M as a 15.5-point underdog.

L 21-24 @ Texas Southern No. 248 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Southern lost 21-24 at Texas Southern. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 73%.

W 28-14 @ Prairie View A&M No. 175 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 15.5-point underdog

Southern won 28-14 at Prairie View A&M. Chance to win started at 10%, low 4%, high better than 99%.

L 10-41 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff No. 200 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 3-point favorite

Southern lost 10-41 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Chance to win started at 64%, low under 1%, high 82%.

L 17-35 @ Jackson State No. 122 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian

Southern won 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian. Chance to win started at 60%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

L 6-77 @ HoustonTop 25 No. 23 of 668 teams

lost by 71 as a 51.5-point underdog

Southern lost 6-77 at Houston. Never had a real chance.

W 34-15 vs Kentucky State No. 287 of 668 teams

Southern won 34-15 vs Kentucky State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 45%, high better than 99%.

L 17-30 @ Alabama State No. 128 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 19.5-point favorite

Southern lost 17-30 vs Alabama State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 3%, high 95%.

Last three games

Florida A&M · 2-6

Rated 192nd in our preseason ratings, 206th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Alabama State as a 14.5-point underdog.

L 28-31 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff No. 188 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Florida A&M lost 28-31 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Chance to win started at 69%, low 10%, high 88%.

L 17-27 @ Jackson State No. 125 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 15.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 17-27 at Jackson State. Chance to win started at 10%, low 1%, high 48%.

W 28-27 @ Alabama State No. 163 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog

Florida A&M won 28-27 at Alabama State. Chance to win started at 12%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

L 21-40 vs Alabama A&M No. 160 of 668 teams

lost by 19 as a 3-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 21-40 vs Alabama A&M. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 71%.

L 26-29 vs Tennessee State No. 208 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Florida A&M lost 26-29 vs Tennessee State. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 84%.

L 7-77 @ MiamiTop 25 No. 7 of 668 teams

lost by 70 as a 59.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 7-77 at Miami. Never had a real chance.

L 13-31 vs South Carolina State No. 134 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 19.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 13-31 vs South Carolina State. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 20%.

W 20-7 vs Albany State No. 271 of 668 teams

Florida A&M won 20-7 vs Albany State. Chance to win started at 59%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Florida A&M

Wk 3: L 26-29 vs Tennessee State▼3Tennesse…Wk 4: L 21-40 vs Alabama A&M▼19Alabama…Wk 6: W 28-27 at Alabama State▲1Alabama…Wk 7: L 17-27 at Jackson State▼10Jackson…Wk 8: L 28-31 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff▼3Arkansas…
  • Wk 3Lvs Tennessee State26-29
  • Wk 4Lvs Alabama A&M21-40
  • Wk 6Wat Alabama State28-27
  • Wk 7Lat Jackson State17-27
  • Wk 8Lvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff28-31

Southern

Wk 3: W 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian▲19L. Chris…Wk 4: L 17-35 at Jackson State▼18Jackson…Wk 5: L 10-41 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff▼31Arkansas…Wk 6: W 28-14 at Prairie View A&M▲14Prairie…Wk 8: L 21-24 at Texas Southern▼3T. South…
  • Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Christian50-31
  • Wk 4Lat Jackson State17-35
  • Wk 5Lvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff10-41
  • Wk 6Wat Prairie View A&M28-14
  • Wk 8Lat Texas Southern21-24

Power rating by week

Florida A&M is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-8-10-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Florida A&MSouthern

The series

Florida A&M leads the series 9-2

11 meetings since 1977 · Florida A&M has won the last 6

Florida A&M wonSouthern won1977: Florida A&M by 132007: Southern by 62008: Florida A&M by 32011: Florida A&M by 52012: Southern by 72019: Florida A&M by 62021: Florida A&M by 122022: Florida A&M by 142023: Florida A&M by 72024: Florida A&M by 182025: Florida A&M by 819772025
  • 2025Florida A&M 43-35
  • 2024Florida A&M 24-6
  • 2023Florida A&M 26-19
  • 2022Florida A&M 30-16
  • 2021Florida A&M 29-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Florida A&M’s chances here.

50-50Model 62% · Line 70%SouthernFlorida A&M

Florida A&M favored by 6.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Florida A&M by 6.5, on the usual path until Q1 7:01

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Southern.

opened −7now −6.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 55.5now 52.5

Spread: −7 → −6.5 · Total: 55.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 45 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 411 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.