Southern beats Kentucky State 34-15

Team pages: Kentucky State · Southern

Kentucky State1-115
Southern1-134Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Ace W. Mumford Stadium, Baton Rouge, La. · Crowd 15,094

Southern beat Kentucky State 34-15.

We had Southern favored. It won.

Next: Kentucky State beat Clark Atlanta 30-3, Sat Sep 12

Next: Southern lost to Houston 77-6, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: James 85-yd interception return TD, Southern goes ahead 7-0 (Q2, 13:44). Southern went from 47% to 75% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern an 89% chance.

Southern won by 19, after dipping to 45% in the first quarter.

Kentucky State never had better than a 55% chance.

FinalSouthern 34-15 Kentucky StateSouthern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfSouthernWon34-151+28Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfSouthernWon34-151Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfSouthernLowest 0%Lost15-341−28Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfSouthernLowest 0%Lost15-341Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 13:44Interception4th and 9James 85-yd interception return TD, Southern goes ahead 7-0Southern 47% → 75% (+28)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 13:44Interception4th and 9James 85-yd interception return TD, Southern goes ahead 7-0Kentucky State 53% → 25% (−28)
Southern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartNot adjusted for the pregame line. Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Southern scored on 4 of its 14 drives; Kentucky State on 2 of its 15.

Southern’s drives are teal, Kentucky State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Southern: Punt, from 77 yards out to 65PuntKentucky State: Turned over on downs, from 79 yards out to 37DownsSouthern: Punt, from 63 yards out to 61PuntKentucky State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 64PuntSouthern: Punt, from 85 yards out to 72PuntKentucky State: Punt, from 59 yards out to 56PuntSouthern: Punt, from 90 yards out to 80PuntKentucky State: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 46 yards out to 16Interception TDQ2Kentucky State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 42PuntSouthern: Punt, from 93 yards out to 80PuntKentucky State: Punt, from 64 yards out to 56PuntSouthern: Safety, from 95 yards out to 100SafetyKentucky State: Punt, from 62 yards out to 57PuntSouthern: Punt, from 80 yards out to 69PuntKentucky State: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 35DownsSouthern: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: End of half, from 65 yards out to 63End of halfQ3Kentucky State: Punt, from 79 yards out to 67PuntSouthern: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownKentucky State: Punt, from 77 yards out to 76PuntSouthern: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownKentucky State: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownKentucky State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntQ4Kentucky State: Punt, from 81 yards out to 56PuntSouthern: Punt, from 87 yards out to 63PuntKentucky State: Turned over on downs, from 73 yards out to 45DownsSouthern: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownKentucky State: End of game, from 75 yards out to 40End of game

From Kentucky State’s side

Kentucky State’s best moment: Johnson pass to Holly for a loss of 6 (Q1 3:38). It lifted Kentucky State’s win chance by 11 points.

Box score

Southern 34, Kentucky State 15

Kentucky State leaders

  • Passing Juan Gainous 17 of 31, 196 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Tristan Thomas 19 for 110 yds; Jahmon Dyson 4 for 29 yds
  • Receiving Darius Cyprian 8 for 77 yds; Tristan Thomas 4 for 74 yds, 1 TD

Southern leaders

  • Passing Christian Johnson 15 of 28, 200 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Trey Holly 21 for 99 yds, 2 TD; Mike Franklin 6 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Daejawn Smith 4 for 72 yds; Isaiah Pina 2 for 28 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Kentucky State · 9-3

Rated 307th in our preseason ratings, 307th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-45 @ Newberry #286 of 667

W 35-7 vs Shorter #427 of 667

W 55-0 @ Lane College #465 of 667

W 43-28 vs Clark Atlanta #420 of 667

W 17-14 vs Franklin Pierce #341 of 667

W 42-14 vs Edward Waters #331 of 667

W 38-17 @ Miles #388 of 667

W 37-20 @ Savannah State #342 of 667

W 35-17 @ Morehouse #421 of 667

L 31-37 @ Grambling #208 of 667

L 21-49 vs Albany State #297 of 667

W 34-24 @ Central State #402 of 667

Last three games · 2025 season

Southern · 2-10

Rated 201st in our preseason ratings, 201st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 28-27 vs Grambling #202 of 667

won by 1 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 30-35 vs Texas Southern #221 of 667

lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 17-35 @ Alcorn State #185 of 667

lost by 18 as an 11-point underdog

L 21-40 @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff #250 of 667

lost by 19 as a 1-point favorite

L 35-43 vs Florida A&M #216 of 667

lost by 8 as a 3-point underdog

L 3-24 vs Prairie View A&M #167 of 667

lost by 21 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 14-45 @ Bethune-Cookman #195 of 667

lost by 31 as a 1-point underdog

L 13-38 vs Jackson State #95 of 667

lost by 25 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 7-56 @ Fresno State #84 of 667

lost by 49 as a 35.5-point underdog

Southern lost 7-56 at Fresno State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 7-30 vs Alabama State #139 of 667

lost by 23 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 34-29 @ Mississippi Valley State #249 of 667

won by 5 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 14-31 vs North Carolina Central #158 of 667

lost by 17 as a 10.5-point underdog

Week by week

Southern

  • Wk 1Lat Alabama State17-30

Kentucky State

  • Wk 1Wat Central State41-14

Line, fans and home field

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 42 games — inside the ±9.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 641 miles to get here.

Where next