Southern beats Louisiana Christian 50-31

Team pages: Louisiana Christian · Southern

Louisiana Christian1-131
Southern2-250Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Ace W. Mumford Stadium, Baton Rouge, La. · Crowd 18,069SWAC TV

Southern beat Louisiana Christian 50-31.

We had Louisiana Christian favored. Southern won.

Next: Louisiana Christian beat East Texas Baptist 50-36, Sat Oct 3

Next: Southern lost to Jackson State 35-17, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Holly 69-yd TD run; kick attempt good penalty lcu leaping on C.Mcmckenna (Q1, 6:14). Southern went from 60% to 77% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern a 39% chance.

Favored the whole way: Southern never fell below 54%.

Louisiana Christian never had better than a 45% chance.

FinalSouthern 50-31 Louisiana ChristianSouthern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4SouthernWon50-3112−13+17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4SouthernWon50-3112Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4SouthernLowest 0%Lost31-5012+13−17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4SouthernLowest 0%Lost31-5012Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 6:39Perkins 47-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 7-7Southern 73% → 60% (−13)
  2. 2Q1 6:14PenaltyHolly 69-yd TD run; kick attempt good penalty lcu leaping on C.McmckennaSouthern 60% → 77% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 6:39Perkins 47-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 7-7Louisiana Christian 27% → 40% (+13)
  2. 2Q1 6:14PenaltyHolly 69-yd TD run; kick attempt good penalty lcu leaping on C.McmckennaLouisiana Christian 40% → 23% (−17)
Southern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartNot adjusted for the pregame line. Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Southern scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Louisiana Christian on 5 of its 12.

Southern’s drives are teal, Louisiana Christian’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Louisiana Christian: Punt, from 60 yards out to 60PuntSouthern: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 55DownsSouthern: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Interception, from 76 yards out to 64InterceptionQ2Southern: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 22Field goalSouthern: Punt, from 77 yards out to 75PuntLouisiana Christian: Punt, from 66 yards out to 53PuntSouthern: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 16Field goalSouthern: End of half, from 65 yards out to 48End of halfQ3Southern: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Missed field goal, from 95 yards out to 24Missed FGLouisiana Christian: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Louisiana Christian: Punt, from 65 yards out to 68PuntSouthern: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 86FumbleSouthern: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Christian: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Punt, from 38 yards out to 39PuntLouisiana Christian: Fumble, from 92 yards out to 54FumbleSouthern: End of game, from 46 yards out to 26End of game

From Louisiana Christian’s side

Louisiana Christian’s best moment: Perkins 47-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 7-7 (Q1 6:39). It lifted Louisiana Christian’s win chance by 13 points.

Box score

Southern 50, Louisiana Christian 31

Louisiana Christian leaders

  • Passing Bryce Perkins 12 of 19, 145 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Matthew Cates Jr 2 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Kedrian McNeil 5 for 44 yds
  • Receiving Darius Washington 2 for 54 yds, 1 TD; EJ Scott 4 for 52 yds

Southern leaders

  • Passing Christian Johnson 16 of 22, 172 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Trey Holly 22 for 200 yds, 2 TD; Mike Franklin 15 for 130 yds
  • Receiving Miles Dixon 3 for 47 yds, 1 TD; Daejawn Smith 3 for 34 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games · 2025 season

Louisiana Christian · 0-2

Two straight losses, each by 20 or more, including a loss to Hardin Simmons (#429 of 667).

L 17-52 @ Hardin Simmons #429 of 667

L 9-54 @ McNeese #188 of 667

Last three games

Southern · 1-2

Rated 201st in our preseason ratings, 198th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 6-77 @ HoustonTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 71 as a 51.5-point underdog

Southern lost 6-77 at Houston. Never had a real chance.

W 34-15 vs Kentucky State #287 of 668

Southern won 34-15 vs Kentucky State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 45%, high better than 99%.

L 17-30 @ Alabama State #128 of 668

lost by 13 as a 19.5-point favorite

Southern lost 17-30 vs Alabama State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 3%, high 95%.

Week by week

Southern

Wk 1: L 17-30 at Alabama State▼13Alabama StateWk 1: W 34-15 vs Kentucky State▲19Kentucky StateWk 2: L 6-77 at Houston▼71Houston
  • Wk 1Lat Alabama State17-30
  • Wk 1Wvs Kentucky State34-15
  • Wk 2Lat Houston6-77

Louisiana Christian

  • Wk 1Wat Northwestern State42-37

Power rating by week

Southern is rated 17.7 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-6-18-30Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2SouthernLouisiana Christian

Line, fans and home field

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 42 games — inside the ±9.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 92 miles to get here.

Where next