CFB Zeitgeist
SRSawyer Robertson

Sawyer Robertson

Sawyer Robertson spent five college seasons building the resume of a guy NFL teams quietly respect: durable, volume-ready, and hard to sack. He left Baylor as one of the Big 12's most productive passers, earned Davey O'Brien QB Class recognition mid-season, and signed with the Las Vegas Raiders as a UDFA after the 2026 draft. The story is just moving to a different league.

QB · Baylor · Cl 4 · #13

CFB Zeitgeist 55

Sawyer Robertson spent five college seasons building the resume of a guy NFL teams quietly respect: durable, volume-ready, and hard to sack. He left Baylor as one of the Big 12's most productive passers, earned Davey O'Brien QB Class recognition mid-season, and signed with the Las Vegas Raiders as a UDFA after the 2026 draft. The story is just moving to a different league.

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →
Hype = tape -9aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 70th percentile of QBs; the tape says 80th — the discourse is fair.
Aura — fan perception70th pctl
Production — on-field80th pctl
n=13 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Robertson's 2025 season was workmanlike in the best sense. He completed 304 of 503 attempts for 3,681 yards and 31 touchdowns against 12 interceptions — a 60.4 percent completion rate on a high-volume offense that asked him to push the ball. The play-by-play numbers tell a more textured story than the surface line: a 70th-percentile sack rate (he processed and got the ball out) and a 62nd-percentile average depth of target (he was willing to throw past the sticks). The interception rate — 20th percentile — is the thing to watch; it tracks with a passer who occasionally forces windows, but it also reflects a scheme that asked him to take chances.

The Davey O'Brien QB Class nod in late October came when Robertson was leading the country in passing yards (2,513 at that point) and ranked second nationally in touchdown passes. That kind of production mid-season, in the Big 12, against a brutal schedule, is not nothing. It is also not what gets you drafted. The completion percentage — 25th percentile in play-by-play context, with a PBP-adjusted rate of 54.3 percent — and a pedestrian touchdown rate (36th percentile) told evaluators there were efficiency ceilings alongside the obvious volume floor.

The Raiders UDFA signing is the right landing spot for the story he's telling. Robertson is a pro-ready frame at 6-3, 200 pounds out of Lubbock, with the pocket awareness to survive NFL pressure and the arm strength to challenge all three levels. The 2026 camp competition will determine whether he sticks on a practice squad or transitions. Either way, he closed a college career — Mississippi State to Baylor, three seasons as the starter — with more production than most four-stars manage.

PLAY STYLE

Robertson's defining trait is staying clean. A 70th-percentile sack rate means he reads pressure, steps up, and releases before the pocket collapses — a pocket-passer baseline the NFL scouts for. He pairs that with a willingness to push the ball downfield: 62nd-percentile average depth of target says he is not a checkdown artist. The tension in his profile is the interception rate (20th percentile) and the completion percentage under play-by-play context (25th percentile) — he will take the shot and sometimes lose the gamble. The EPA per dropback sits at the 52nd percentile, essentially median, which is the honest summary: a high-floor, volume-accumulator who plays within a system but can stress a defense vertically when needed.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#134 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2023
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2024
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2025
Dave Aranda
Baylor

Played his entire career under Dave Aranda.

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2022Mississippi State9-4HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy
2023Baylor3-9HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced
2024Baylor8-5HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2025Baylor5-7HC: Dave Aranda · Pass-leaning, fast tempo

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

55Mid-pack
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass tds (97th). Strength: pass yards (96th). Concern: interceptions (4th).

Pass TDs#5 / 183 · 98th pct
31pass
Pass yards#6 / 183 · 97th pct
3681pass
Yards / att#76 / 183 · 57th pct
7.3pass
Rush TDs#86 / 183 · 49th pct
3rush
Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct
2fumb
Completion %#115 / 183 · 37th pct
60.4%pass
Rush yards#136 / 183 · 26th pct
17rush
Interceptions#171 / 183 · 5th pct
12pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Career stats

Passing

Season-by-season quarterback passing line in a familiar scoreboard layout.

Season Team CMPATTCMP%YDSY/ATDINTRATELNGSACK
2025 BaylorFinal snapshot 30450360.4%3,6817.33112137.5----
2024 BaylorFinal snapshot 22936862.2%3,0718.3288153.1----
2023 BaylorFinal snapshot 6611756.4%8647.424117.2----
2022 Mississippi StateFinal snapshot 61154.5%232.10153.9----
Career 4 loaded seasonsCareer row reflects the stat seasons currently loaded in this database. 60599960.6%7,6397.66125139.9----

Rushing

Ground contribution that rounds out the quarterback profile.

Season Team CARYDSAVGTDLNG
2025 BaylorFinal snapshot 56170.33--
2024 BaylorFinal snapshot 632303.74--
2023 BaylorFinal snapshot 35692.01--
2022 Mississippi StateFinal snapshot 2--0.00--
Career 4 loaded seasonsCareer row reflects the stat seasons currently loaded in this database. 1563162.08--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2025

W 48–45

at SMU

440 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT  ·  QBR 91.9  ·  20 rush yds (6 car)

Edged out SMU on the road in a shootout.

Game log

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTYPAQBRNote
Wk 1L 24-38vs Auburn27/48419308.765.63 TD passes
Wk 2W 48-45@ SMU34/50440408.891.9Season-high 440 yds
Wk 3W 42-7vs Samford23/37211325.741.23 TD passes
Wk 4L 24-27vs Arizona State25/39250316.471.33 TD passes
Wk 5W 45-27@ Oklahoma State24/353934011.281.14 TD passes
Wk 6W 35-34vs Kansas State25/39345218.876.8
Wk 8L 36-42@ TCU25/52318236.140.63 INTs — rough day
Wk 9L 20-41@ Cincinnati18/26137205.367.9
Wk 10W 30-3vs UCF29/40267306.787.03 TD passes
Wk 12L 28-55vs Utah29/58430327.466.13 TD passes
Wk 13L 17-41@ Arizona22/33162124.955.3
Wk 14L 24-31vs Houston23/46309116.748.7
Total304/503368131127.266.1

How he plays

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

55Mid-pack
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass tds (97th). Strength: pass yards (96th). Concern: interceptions (4th).

Pass TDs#5 / 183 · 98th pct
31pass
Pass yards#6 / 183 · 97th pct
3681pass
Yards / att#76 / 183 · 57th pct
7.3pass
Rush TDs#86 / 183 · 49th pct
3rush
Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct
2fumb
Completion %#115 / 183 · 37th pct
60.4%pass
Rush yards#136 / 183 · 26th pct
17rush
Interceptions#171 / 183 · 5th pct
12pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

PLAY STYLE

Robertson's defining trait is staying clean. A 70th-percentile sack rate means he reads pressure, steps up, and releases before the pocket collapses — a pocket-passer baseline the NFL scouts for. He pairs that with a willingness to push the ball downfield: 62nd-percentile average depth of target says he is not a checkdown artist. The tension in his profile is the interception rate (20th percentile) and the completion percentage under play-by-play context (25th percentile) — he will take the shot and sometimes lose the gamble. The EPA per dropback sits at the 52nd percentile, essentially median, which is the honest summary: a high-floor, volume-accumulator who plays within a system but can stress a defense vertically when needed.

2026 Outlook

Returning to Baylor for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Baylor · editorial

Returning around him

  • 82% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 2 Baylor players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -1 net (31 in / 32 out)

2026 Award watch

  • Davey O'Brien
  • Heisman Watch

Baylor · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #35 · 2026 recruiting class #36

Perception vs tape

Sawyer Robertson spent five college seasons building the resume of a guy NFL teams quietly respect: durable, volume-ready, and hard to sack. He left Baylor as one of the Big 12's most productive passers, earned Davey O'Brien QB Class recognition mid-season, and signed with the Las Vegas Raiders as a UDFA after the 2026 draft. The story is just moving to a different league.

Robertson's 2025 season was workmanlike in the best sense. He completed 304 of 503 attempts for 3,681 yards and 31 touchdowns against 12 interceptions — a 60.4 percent completion rate on a high-volume offense that asked him to push the ball. The play-by-play numbers tell a more textured story than the surface line: a 70th-percentile sack rate (he processed and got the ball out) and a 62nd-percentile average depth of target (he was willing to throw past the sticks). The interception rate — 20th percentile — is the thing to watch; it tracks with a passer who occasionally forces windows, but it also reflects a scheme that asked him to take chances.

The Davey O'Brien QB Class nod in late October came when Robertson was leading the country in passing yards (2,513 at that point) and ranked second nationally in touchdown passes. That kind of production mid-season, in the Big 12, against a brutal schedule, is not nothing. It is also not what gets you drafted. The completion percentage — 25th percentile in play-by-play context, with a PBP-adjusted rate of 54.3 percent — and a pedestrian touchdown rate (36th percentile) told evaluators there were efficiency ceilings alongside the obvious volume floor.

The Raiders UDFA signing is the right landing spot for the story he's telling. Robertson is a pro-ready frame at 6-3, 200 pounds out of Lubbock, with the pocket awareness to survive NFL pressure and the arm strength to challenge all three levels. The 2026 camp competition will determine whether he sticks on a practice squad or transitions. Either way, he closed a college career — Mississippi State to Baylor, three seasons as the starter — with more production than most four-stars manage.

How he plays

Robertson's defining trait is staying clean. A 70th-percentile sack rate means he reads pressure, steps up, and releases before the pocket collapses — a pocket-passer baseline the NFL scouts for. He pairs that with a willingness to push the ball downfield: 62nd-percentile average depth of target says he is not a checkdown artist. The tension in his profile is the interception rate (20th percentile) and the completion percentage under play-by-play context (25th percentile) — he will take the shot and sometimes lose the gamble. The EPA per dropback sits at the 52nd percentile, essentially median, which is the honest summary: a high-floor, volume-accumulator who plays within a system but can stress a defense vertically when needed.

2026 outlook · as of 2026-06-16

DNA match

Player DNA

The Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.

QB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Carson Beck’s 2024 season.

Carson Beck

80%match

Georgia · 2024

All-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1
#2

Max Johnson

LSU · 2021

73%
#3

Tyler Shough

Louisville · 2024

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 8
71%
#4

Ben Bryant

Cincinnati · 2022

70%
#5

Carter Bradley

South Alabama · 2022

69%

Matches Carson on

Total pass EPA (college ability)
TD rate
Rush yards / carry

Differs from Carson on

Recruiting rating (higher)
Completion % (lower)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Sam Ehlinger’s path through Texas.

Sam Ehlinger

90%match

Texas · 2020

All-Big 12NFL Rd 6
#2

Eli Holstein

Pittsburgh · 2025

All-ACC
88%
#3

Tyler Shough

Louisville · 2024

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 8
81%
#4

Gerry Bohannon

South Florida · 2022

81%
#5

Ian Book

Notre Dame · 2020

All-ACCNFL Rd 4
80%

Matches Sam on

Yards per attempt
Recruiting rating
Completion %

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Carson Beck's senior season at Georgia (2024).

Carson Beck

68%match

Georgia · 2024

All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1
#2

Gunnar Watson

Troy · 2023

All-Sun Belt
64%
#3

Katin Houser

East Carolina · 2025

62%
#4

Walker Eget

San José State · 2025

61%
#5

Ben Wooldridge

Louisiana · 2024

All-Sun Belt
60%

Matches Carson on

Yards / attempt
Rush yards / carry

Differs from Carson on

Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Completion % (lower)

Peer comparator

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Sawyer RobertsonBaylorCaden VeltkampFlorida Atlantic· 82% simJosh HooverTCU· 82% simKevin JenningsSMU· 82% sim
Pass TDs
98
Robertson
85
Veltkamp
95
Hoover
91
Jennings
Pass yards
97
Robertson
96
Veltkamp
92
Hoover
95
Jennings
Yards / att
57
Robertson
49
Veltkamp
87
Hoover
78
Jennings
Rush TDs
49
Robertson
59
Veltkamp
39
Hoover
59
Jennings
Fumbles lost
38
Robertson
38
Veltkamp
38
Hoover
18
Jennings
Completion %
37
Robertson
84
Veltkamp
77
Hoover
78
Jennings
Rush yards
26
Robertson
32
Veltkamp
22
Hoover
34
Jennings
Interceptions
5
Robertson
0
Veltkamp
2
Hoover
2
Jennings

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Development

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2022–2025
23.02022
8642023
3,0712024
3,6812025

+15904%

Up 15904% from first season to most-recent.