cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Tyler Shough /Louisville

Tyler Shough

QB · Louisville · Sr · #9

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

NOW IN NFLNew Orleans — drafted 2025, Rd 2, Pick 8, #40 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

New OrleansEntering 2nd NFL season

#40Rd 2 · Pick 8
New OrleansEntering 2nd NFL season

QB · LOUISVILLE · ACC

Tyler Shough

  • 4
  • #9
  • 6-5 | 225 lb
  • Chandler, AZ

CFB Zeitgeist QB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#43

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R02 · Deep reserve

Deep reserve. In the program, working up the two-deep.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2021–2024
8722021
1,3042022
7462023
3,1952024

+266%

Up 266% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#140 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2021–2024
NFL
NFL Draft
R2 &middot; #40
New Orleans &middot; 2025

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class4
Jersey9
Measurements6-5 | 225 lb
HometownChandler, AZ
Primary teamLouisville

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 140 recruit
Composite rating 0.9422 HighSchool
Signed with Oregon 2018
Origin Hamilton Chandler, AZ, USA
Class Profile Context
2018 4-star | 0.9422 No. 140 recruit | HighSchool | Oregon

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Louisville 2024
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Nov 19, 2023
Season Move Context
2024 Texas Tech -> Louisville 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#43Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#45Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Oregon

Composite

0.9422

#140 national

NFL Draft

2025 · Rd 2, Pick 8

#40 overall · New Orleans

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Tyler Shough

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Tyler Shough

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Tyler Shough's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Louisville, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #43 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 54.1% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 140 recruit

2024 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2024 season snapshot | final

2024 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 3,195 23 TD | 6 INT | #25/382 (94th pct)
Completion rate 62.7% 244/389 completions | #169/383 (56th pct)
Yards/attempt 8.2 Explosiveness through the air | #80/382 (79th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerPocket-leaning

2024 Season · Final

2024 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
244 89th
ATT
389 92nd
CMP%
62.7% 56th
Y/A
8.2 79th

Passing Production

YDS
3,195 94th
TD
23 92nd
INT
6 28th

Rushing

CAR
42 64th
YDS
19 39th
YPC
0.5 21st
TD
1 63rd

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Texas Tech6-6HC: Matt Wells · Balanced
2022Texas Tech8-5HC: Joey McGuire · Balanced, fast tempo
2023Texas Tech7-6HC: Joey McGuire · Balanced
2024Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2024Louisville24438962.7%3,1958.2236148.1----
2023Texas Tech6711160.4%7466.774130.4----
2022Texas Tech10617759.9%1,3047.474130.3----
2021Texas Tech649269.6%8729.563164.2----
Career4 loaded seasons48176962.5%6,1178.04317143.4----
SeasonTeam
2024Louisville42190.51--
2023Texas Tech481493.12--
2022Texas Tech722693.74--
2021Texas Tech16140.92--
Career4 loaded seasons1784512.59--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 19 1 rush TD | #250/408 (39th pct)
Usage 54.1% 96.8% pass share | 7.5% rush share | #48/428 (89th pct)
Passing WEPA +0.55 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #5/200 (98th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 3,195 #25/382 94th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 23 #32/407 92nd pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 244 #43/383 89th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 62.7% #169/383 56th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 8.2 #80/382 79th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 19 #250/408 39th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Value Passing WEPA +0.55 #5/200 98th pct Opponent-adjusted passing value | 389 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage Role share 54.1% #48/428 89th pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 389 #34/407 92nd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 6 #294/407 28th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 46 #54/391 86th pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 42 #149/408 64th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 1 #151/408 63rd pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 0.5 #321/407 21st pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 96.8% #10/428 98th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 76.0% #14/428 97th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 74.3% #21/428 95th pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 54.4% #50/428 89th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 45.6% #67/428 85th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 45.0% #73/428 83rd pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 7.5% #210/428 51st pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #69/258 74th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jeff Brohm

Pass share

50.2%

414 pass / 410 run

Plays / game

63.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.0%

314 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2024

2 coaches
2021
Scott Satterfield
Louisville
2022
Scott Satterfield
Louisville
2023
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
era →
2024
Jeff Brohm
Louisville

Coaching transition mid-career: Scott Satterfield → Jeff Brohm. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownChandler, AZ
Height6'5"
Weight225 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey9

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Louisville QB4 #43 #45 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | ACC
2023 Texas Tech QB4 #238 #280 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Texas Tech QB4 #137 #175 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12
2021 Texas Tech QB4 #195 #226 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2024 Louisville ACC QB 4 No. 9 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Chandler, AZ
2023 Texas Tech Big 12 QB 4 No. 9 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Chandler, AZ
2022 Texas Tech Big 12 QB 4 No. 9 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Chandler, AZ
2021 Texas Tech Big 12 QB 4 No. 9 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Chandler, AZ