Heisman / Players / Conner Weigman /Houston

Conner Weigman

QB · Houston · Jr · #1

Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22

Weigman posted 2,705 passing yards and 25 TDs in 2025, then changed programs heading into 2026.

2,705PASS YDS25PASS TD703RUSH YDS

PASSING VALUE · WEPA

+0.42

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 336 plays

Fans price his perception around the 74th percentile; the tape produces at the 89th — why isn't he getting the credit?

Read the story so far

Weigman threw for 2,705 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, added 703 rushing yards, and ranked among the top converters on third and fourth and long nationally with 21 conversions. Houston finished 10-3 and ranked 22nd. Now he enters 2026 at a new program, with returning weapons Amare Thomas and Trent Walker and transfer RB Makhi Hughes still in the picture. Whether last season was a foundation or a peak is the question nobody has answered yet.

Houston is one of four FBS programs that have rostered two five-star quarterbacks simultaneously, which means the competition behind Weigman was never going to stay quiet.

QB successioncontinuity

Inherited fromDonovan Smith 3★

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

season totals
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 336 plays
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Houston for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Houston for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Houston · editorial

Returning around him

105% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
1 Houston player drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: +2 net (18 in / 16 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Houston · Last season: 10-3 (AP #25) · Talent rank #66 · 2026 recruiting class #52

QB · HOUSTON · BIG 12

Conner Weigman

3
#1
6-3 | 210 lb
Cypress, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by pass tds at the 89th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#759

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Hype = tape -15aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 73rd percentile of QBs; the tape says 88th — the discourse is fair.

Aura — fan perception73rd pctl

Production — on-field88th pctl

n=16 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2022–2025

8962022

9792023

2,7052025

+202%

Up 202% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★★★

#22 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2022–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#25 in market ▲ from #26 · 6 books

+70001.4% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class3

Jersey1

Measurements6-3 | 210 lb

HometownCypress, TX

Primary teamHouston

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 5-star No. 22 recruit

Composite rating 0.9899 HighSchool

Signed with Texas A&M 2022

Origin Bridgeland Cypress, TX, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2022	5-star \| 0.9899	No. 22 recruit \| HighSchool \| Texas A&M

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination Houston 2025

Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Dec 12, 2024

Season	Move	Context
2025	Texas A&M -> Houston	4-star \| 0.9100 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#759Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#616Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

NIL Valuation · On3

$1.52M

#45 nationally · Jun 2026

Whisper Rate

$1.00M

per-deal market estimate

Recruit stars

★★★★★

to Texas A&M

Composite

0.9899

#22 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 11 mentions

Confidence LOW

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=11
Rivals · n=4
National · n=5

Obsession score 3

Rival mentions 4

Weeks on radar 2

Peak moment Week 0 · 2 mentions

Grudging respect 0% Neutral 100% Mockery 0%

2025 Signature · 2025 season

WEPA per dropback

+0.420

EPA

P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks

National rank #15 of 58

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks 75th

Why it matters

#15 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by weighted EPA per dropback (min 250 dropbacks) — +0.420 EPA/play.

Vs cohort

This player +0.420 (75th)

MODERATE · n=336 cohort 58

Also strong
Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)#26 / 57
Total weighted-EPA passing#21 / 58
TD : INT ratio#28 / 72

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

final

Through 13g

2,705Pass yards

25Pass TDs

9INT

Per game

208.1Pass yards

2Pass TDs

1INT

Final

2,705Pass yards

25Pass TDs

9INT

✓ Hit 25 passing TDs · finished with 25.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Conner Weigman's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Houston, he has 2,705 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes, but he also adds 703 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place #759 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 52.5% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 22 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 2,705 25 TD | 9 INT | #53/382 (86th pct)

Completion rate 65.2% 232/356 completions | #128/383 (67th pct)

Yards/attempt 7.6 Explosiveness through the air | #118/382 (69th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerEfficientDual-threat

Passing Efficiency

CMP

232 88th

ATT

356 88th

CMP%

65.2% 67th

Y/A

7.6 69th

Passing Production

YDS

2,705 86th

25 96th

INT

9 12th

Rushing

CAR

170 98th

YDS

703 97th

YPC

4.1 66th

11 97th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 27-0vs Stephen F. Austin	15/24	159	3	0	6.6	74.7	4 TD passes
Wk 2	W 35-9@ Rice	15/22	188	1	0	8.5	56.7
Wk 3	W 36-20vs Colorado	15/24	222	0	0	9.3	75.7
Wk 5	W 27-24@ Oregon State	20/36	270	2	1	7.5	39.7
Wk 6	L 11-35vs Texas Tech	5/12	71	0	1	5.9	27.0
Wk 7	W 39-17@ Oklahoma State	21/30	306	2	0	10.2	72.2	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 8	W 31-28vs Arizona	15/23	164	3	0	7.1	94.5	3 TD passes
Wk 9	W 24-16@ Arizona State	17/22	201	1	0	9.1	86.5
Wk 10	L 35-45vs West Virginia	25/35	309	4	2	8.8	44.0	Season-high 309 yds
Wk 11	W 30-27@ UCF	20/31	223	2	3	7.2	46.4	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 13	L 14-17vs TCU	15/29	161	2	1	5.6	46.3
Wk 14	W 31-24@ Baylor	21/31	201	1	1	6.5	75.9
Bowl	W 38-35vs LSU	28/37	230	4	0	6.2	92.8
Total		232/356	2705	25	9	7.6	64.0

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Texas A&M5-7HC: Jimbo Fisher · Balanced

2023Texas A&M7-6HC: Elijah Robinson · Balanced

2025Houston10-3HC: Willie Fritz · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	Houston	232	356	65.2%	2,705	7.6	25	9	147.1	--	--
2023	Texas A&M	82	119	68.9%	979	8.2	8	2	156.8	--	--
2022	Texas A&M	73	132	55.3%	896	6.8	8	0	132.3	--	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	387	607	63.8%	4,580	7.5	41	11	145.8	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Houston	170	703	4.1	11	--
2023	Texas A&M	12	63	5.2	2	--
2022	Texas A&M	27	97	3.6	0	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	209	863	4.1	13	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 703 11 rush TD | #15/408 (97th pct)

Usage 52.5% 89.0% pass share | 26.2% rush share | #59/428 (86th pct)

Passing WEPA +0.42 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #20/200 (90th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	2,705	#53/382	86th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	25	#19/407	96th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	232	#46/383	88th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	65.2%	#128/383	67th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	7.6	#118/382	69th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	703	#15/408	97th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.42	#20/200	90th pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 336 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	52.5%	#59/428	86th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	356	#51/407	88th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	9	#359/407	12th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	170	#11/408	98th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	50	#47/391	88th pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	11	#12/408	97th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	4.1	#138/407	66th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	89.0%	#72/428	83rd pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	65.6%	#65/428	85th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	61.7%	#100/428	77th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	52.1%	#63/428	86th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	48.5%	#43/428	90th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	43.9%	#77/428	82nd pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	26.2%	#29/428	93rd pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.23	#80/140	44th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 149 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#69/258	74th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	188	2.3	7.1	0.6
Road6g	232	1.5	8.2	0.8

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins10g	216	1.9	7.8	0.5
Losses3g	180	2.0	6.8	1.3

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	207	1.7	7.7	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	210	2.2	7.4	1.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

70Solid starter

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (93rd). Strength: rush yards (92nd). Concern: interceptions (21st).

Rush TDs#12 / 183 · 93rd pct

11rush

Rush yards#15 / 183 · 92nd pct

703rush

Pass TDs#19 / 183 · 89th pct

25pass

Pass yards#53 / 183 · 71st pct

2705pass

Completion %#53 / 183 · 71st pct

65.2%pass

Yards / att#57 / 183 · 68th pct

7.6pass

Fumbles lost#32 / 174 · 66th pct

1fumb

Interceptions#135 / 183 · 22nd pct

9pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

87/163 (53.4%) · 6 TD · 2 INT

Short

0–9 yds

53%of completions

46 comp4.8 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

30%of completions

26 comp14.4 yds avg2 TD

Deep

20+ yds

17%of completions

15 comp35.7 yds avg2 TD

Overall 53.4% completion on 163 attempts · 15 deep completions averaging 35.7 yds.

EPA / dropback0.420

82th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.42High (p75–p90) (n=94)Elite (≥p90) (n=106)Elite (≥p90) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.23Low (p25–p50) (n=72)Mid (p50–p75) (n=68)Low (p25–p50) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Conner WeigmanHoustonJC FrenchGeorgia Southern· 88% simJohn MateerOklahoma· 84% simArch ManningTexas· 83% sim

Rush TDs

93
Weigman

74
French

81
Mateer

91
Manning

Rush yards

92
Weigman

72
French

79
Mateer

77
Manning

Pass TDs

89
Weigman

77
French

58
Mateer

91
Manning

Pass yards

71
Weigman

77
French

76
Mateer

86
Manning

Completion %

71
Weigman

62
French

49
Mateer

42
Manning

Yards / att

68
Weigman

63
French

57
Mateer

73
Manning

Fumbles lost

66
Weigman

66
French

66
Mateer

91
Manning

Interceptions

22
Weigman

32
French

10
Mateer

44
Manning

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Scrambler

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Carlos Del Rio-Wilson’s 2025 season.

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

78%match

Marshall · 2025

Dequan Finn

Toledo · 2023

All-MAC

75%

Emory Jones

Florida · 2021

68%

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati · 2021

All-AACNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10

67%

Sean Clifford

Penn State · 2022

NFL Rd 5

67%

Matches Carlos on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Weight

INT rate

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kedon Slovis’s path through BYU.

Kedon Slovis

93%match

BYU · 2023

Gunnar Watson

Troy · 2023

All-Sun Belt

92%

Andrew Marty

Northwestern · 2021

88%

Jack Layne

New Mexico · 2025

87%

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

Marshall · 2025

86%

Matches Kedon on

Height

Completion %

Yards per attempt

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Brendon Lewis's senior season at Nevada (2024).

Brendon Lewis

61%match

Nevada · 2024

Emory Jones

Cincinnati · 2023

61%

Ben Wooldridge

Louisiana · 2024

All-Sun Belt

59%

Michael Pratt

Tulane · 2023

All-AACNFL Rd 7

59%

Garrett Shrader

Syracuse · 2023

57%

Matches Brendon on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Completion %

Differs from Brendon on

Class year (lower)

Recruiting rating (higher)

TD rate (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Willie Fritz

Pass share

41.4%

377 pass / 534 run

Plays / game

70.1

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.5%

262 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

2 coaches

2022

Dana Holgorsen

Houston

2023

Dana Holgorsen

Houston

2025

Willie Fritz

Houston

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Dana Holgorsen → Willie Fritz. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

HometownCypress, TX

Height6'3"

Weight210 lb

Class3

PositionQB

Jersey1

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	Texas A&M	QB3	#759	#616	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| SEC
2023	Texas A&M	QB3	#43	#44	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| SEC
2022	Texas A&M	QB3	#233	#292	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Houston	Big 12	QB	3	No. 1 \| 6-3 \| 210 lb \| Cypress, TX
2024	Texas A&M	SEC	QB	3	No. 1 \| 6-3 \| 210 lb \| Cypress, TX
2023	Texas A&M	SEC	QB	3	No. 1 \| 6-3 \| 210 lb \| Cypress, TX
2022	Texas A&M	SEC	QB	3	No. 1 \| 6-3 \| 210 lb \| Cypress, TX

Conner Weigman

R07 · Impact starter

+202%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Conner Weigman

How rival fanbases talk about Conner Weigman

WEPA per dropback

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Scrambler

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline