Mike Elko

Head coach · Texas A&M
3rd season · since 2024 · Duke before

At Texas A&M23-11since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool7% · 46th of 132 jobsLast gameL 20-31at Alabama · Oct 24Nextat South CarolinaSat Nov 7 · 3 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianDukeTexas A&MTexasTexasBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelDuke when he took over: 20.4 (Regional Program II), its final 2021 readingtook overDuke, 2022: 9-4, Regional Program IDuke, 2022: 9-4, Regional Program I20229-4Duke, 2023: 7-5, National Program IIIDuke, 2023: 7-5, National Program III20237-5+8.5Texas A&M when he took over: 51.0 (Power Program II), its final 2023 readingtook overTexas A&M, 2024: 8-5, Power Program IITexas A&M, 2024: 8-5, Power Program II20248-5Texas A&M, 2025: 11-2, Power Program II202511-2Texas A&M, 2026: 4-4, Power Program IITexas A&M, 2026: 4-4, Power Program II20264-4+1.1best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-2

Duke2022Military BowlW 30-13Texas A&M2024Las Vegas BowlL 31-352025CFP first roundL 3-10

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 20-31 at Alabama Sat Oct 24
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat7% 46th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextat South Carolina Sat Nov 7
  • Stature18th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 18% → 16% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 5%. Lose and he’s at 8%.

at South Carolina, Sat Nov 7, 3 pm ET ESPN · No. 23 South Carolina is 5-3 · Elko vs. Shane Beamer: 1-1 · Texas A&M’s chance to win: 41% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Texas A&M wins: 5%, 60th of 132Now: 7%If Texas A&M loses: 8%, 44th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Texas A&M wins: 5%, 60th of 132
  • Now: 7%
  • If Texas A&M loses: 8%, 44th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

7% chance he’s out after the season · 46th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow4% had they won4% had they wonLoss 8%Win 5%1%2%1%3%5%5%7%6%7%Pre1W vs. Missouri StateW2W vs. Arizona StateW3L vs. KentuckyL4L at LSUL5W vs. ArkansasW6L at MissouriL7W vs. The CitadelW8L at AlabamaL9Chance to win at South Carolina41%10Chance to win vs. Tennessee46%11Chance to win at Oklahoma59%12Chance to win vs. Texas38%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow4% had they wonLoss 8%Win 5%1%7%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-814%
  2. 5-77%
  3. 6-64%
  4. 7-53%
  5. 8-41%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Both of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 98th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 7%, 46th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    19-7 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 75
  • ▲ Hotter
    Power Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$21,875,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 6%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

A lot of people still believe in the trajectory of this program”

Texas A&M coach Mike Elko addresses recruiting approach

On3 headline · Thu Oct 29
Texas A&M Athletics · 16,274 views by Wednesday

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from many outlets

Fans are feeling good about Texas A&M

Tuition Help I was admitted to TAMU recently and realized I really want to go here. The traditions and overall environment look amazing, and I used to live in college station when I was a child. However, TAMU's tuition is not cheap. Do y'all have any scholarship resources or tips that would help me afford this?

Auténticos Tigres QB #17, Mirko Martos, played at FCS Texas A&M Commerce (now East Texas A&M) in 2023-24. He prepped at Mater Dei HS finished his senior year at South Garland HS:

Texas A&M launches INSPIRE Alliance to advance national security research

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 101st of 138 per play. Defense: 30th.

Offense, per play101stOffense, big plays121stDefense, per play30thPass defense7thWorstBest
Offense, per play101st of 138Offense, big plays121st of 138Defense, per play30th of 138Pass defense7th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Texas A&M. The other two rows are where Texas A&M stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at South Carolina (5-3)ESPN41%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Tennessee (6-2)46%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Oklahoma (4-4)59%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. Texas (6-2)ABC38%

Percent: Texas A&M’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Texas A&M stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

12th18th24thPreseason17thMissouri State W 50-0Missouri State W 50-0W 50-0Missouri State17thArizona State W 48-20Arizona State W 48-20W 48-20Arizona State17thKentucky L 21-31Kentucky L 21-31L 21-31Kentucky17thLSU L 6-35LSU L 6-35L 6-35LSU17thArkansas W 34-7Arkansas W 34-7W 34-7Arkansas17thMissouri L 6-27Missouri L 6-27L 6-27Missouri18thThe Citadel W 41-0The Citadel W 41-0W 41-0The Citadel19thAlabama L 20-31Alabama L 20-31L 20-31Alabama18th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game24 headlines · 25th of 138Mike Elko's winning percentage compared to last four Texas A&M coaches Yahoo Sports“A lot of people still believe in the trajectory of this program”Texas A&M coach Mike Elko addresses recruiting approach, Oct 29
  2. Oct 19–25L 20-31 at Alabama16 headlines · 29th of 138Mike Elko provides injury update on KJ Edwards after Alabama loss Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 41-0 vs. The Citadel38 headlines · 4th of 138Dan Lanning and Mike Elko made huge coaching mistakes, can they dig out this season? On3
  4. Oct 5–11L 6-27 at Missouri34 headlines · 7th of 138Texas A&M coach Mike Elko rips TexAgs fan community after blowout loss Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 34-7 vs. Arkansas25 headlines · 19th of 138Mike Elko Pinpoints Exactly What Is Holding Texas A&M Offense Back Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-35 at LSU23 headlines · 18th of 138Everything Texas A&M HC Mike Elko said after 35-6 loss to LSU: ‘I don’t have many words’ On3“I don’t have many words”Everything Texas A&M HC Mike Elko said after 35-6 loss to LSU, Sep 27

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Texas A&M’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled54th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at Texas A&M
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 87th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.