Boston College beats Rutgers 28-21

Rutgers0-221
Boston College1-128Final
Fri, Sep 11 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA), Chestnut Hill, Mass. · Crowd 40,611ESPN2

Boston College beat Rutgers 28-21.

We had Rutgers favored. Boston College won.

Top comment in the game thread

converting the 4th down and getting immediately picked off feels so on brand for this game

Q4 1:46 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 11

How it swung

The turning point: Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downs (Q1, 13:08). Boston College went from 62% to 80% to win. Fans right then: “Rutgers is going to get absolutely demolished in the B1G You can’t get 1 yard against… BC?” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boston College a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Boston College was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Favored the whole way: Boston College never fell below 55%.

Rutgers never had better than a 44% chance.

78-yard TD passBoston College · Q4 7:06
FinalBoston College 28-21 RutgersBoston College wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q492% at halfBoston CollegeWon28-2112+18+16ScoresB. CollegeRutgersBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 4 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 5 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q492% at halfBoston CollegeWon28-2112ScoresBoston…RutgersBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 4 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 5 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q48% at halfBoston CollegeLost21-2812−18−16ScoresRutgersB. CollegeRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 5 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 4 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q48% at halfBoston CollegeLost21-2812ScoresRutgersBoston…Rutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 0 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 2 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 3 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 1 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 4 comments a minuteRutgers fans: 5 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 4 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 0 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 1 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 2 comments a minuteBoston College fans: 3 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:084th and 1Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downsBoston College 62% → 80% (+18)
  2. 2Q4 7:06McKenzie 78-yd TD pass to Pough, Boston College leads 28-14Boston College 83% → 99% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:084th and 1Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downsRutgers 38% → 20% (−18)
  2. 2Q4 7:06McKenzie 78-yd TD pass to Pough, Boston College leads 28-14Rutgers 17% → 1% (−16)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 13:52Fans mock Schiano's tush push call after Rutgers goes three-and-outRutgers is going to get absolutely demolished in the B1G You can’t get 1 yard against… BC?r/CFB game threadRutgers is truly ass, no way you're stacked by *Boston College's defense*r/CFB game thread
  2. Q4 11:06Rutgers fans rip Schiano for going for it instead of kicking field goalsPlease kick itr/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 1:46Surace throws an interception to Palano after converting fourth downSurace vs Lonergan is like testicular torsion vs testicular torsionr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Boston College’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Boston College -3), at 66% for Boston College (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Boston College or Rutgers flair (146 and 269); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Boston College’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:42Dickens 19-yd TD runBoston College goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:42 · Boston College 7, Rutgers 0▲5%Boston College’s chance to win, 77% to 82%▲5%Boston College’s chance to win, 77% to 82%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 7:17Surace intercepted by Comella at the Boston College 23Q1, 7:17 · Boston College 7, Rutgers 0▲12%Boston College’s chance to win, 74% to 86%▲12%Boston College’s chance to win, 74% to 86%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 5:15McKenzie 10-yd TD runBoston College leads 14-0Q1, 5:15 · Boston College 14, Rutgers 0▲4%Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 92%▲4%Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 92%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 1:55Surace 4-yd TD pass to Raymondcuts it to 17-7Q2, 1:55 · Boston College 17, Rutgers 717-7score after the play17-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 7:57Surace intercepted by Davis at the Boston College 15Q3, 7:57 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 7▲3%Boston College’s chance to win, 90% to 93%▲3%Boston College’s chance to win, 90% to 93%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 6:47Dickens 11-yd runfumblesQ3, 6:47 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 7▼4%Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90%▼4%Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 2:37Surace 4-yd TD pass to Duffcuts it to 20-14Q3, 2:37 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 14▼8%Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 80%▼8%Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 80%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q3, 2:27McKenzie intercepted by Walker at the Boston College 26Q3, 2:27 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 14▼13%Boston College’s chance to win, 80% to 67%▼13%Boston College’s chance to win, 80% to 67%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q4, 9:27Surace intercepted by Palano at the Boston College 10illegal block in back on Boston CollegeQ4, 9:27 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 14▲11%Boston College’s chance to win, 71% to 82%▲11%Boston College’s chance to win, 71% to 82%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q4, 7:06McKenzie 78-yd TD pass to PoughBoston College leads 28-14Q4, 7:06 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 14▲16%Boston College’s chance to win, 83% to 99%▲16%Boston College’s chance to win, 83% to 99%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  11. Q4, 6:18Surace 60-yd TD pass to Duffcuts it to 28-21Q4, 6:18 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 21▼8%Boston College’s chance to win, 99% to 91%▼8%Boston College’s chance to win, 99% to 91%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  12. Q4, 3:00McKenzie intercepted by Walker at the Rutgers 38Q4, 3:00 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 21▼4%Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90%▼4%Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  13. Q4, 1:46Surace intercepted by Palano at the Boston College 35Q4, 1:46 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 21▲8%Boston College’s chance to win, 87% to 95%▲8%Boston College’s chance to win, 87% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Boston College scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Rutgers on 3 of its 11.

Boston College’s drives are teal, Rutgers’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Rutgers: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsBoston College: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownRutgers: Interception, from 75 yards out to 33InterceptionBoston College: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownRutgers: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntBoston College: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 12Field goalQ2Rutgers: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntBoston College: Punt, from 69 yards out to 64PuntRutgers: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownBoston College: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 28Field goalQ3Boston College: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntRutgers: Interception, from 74 yards out to 19InterceptionBoston College: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 48FumbleRutgers: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownBoston College: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionRutgers: Turned over on downs, from 18 yards out to 11DownsBoston College: Punt, from 89 yards out to 74PuntQ4Rutgers: Interception, from 54 yards out to 21InterceptionBoston College: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownRutgers: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBoston College: Interception, from 75 yards out to 44InterceptionRutgers: Interception, from 62 yards out to 47InterceptionBoston College: End of game, from 80 yards out to 93End of game

From Rutgers’s side

Rutgers’s best moment: McKenzie intercepted by Walker at the Boston College 26 (Q3 2:27). It lifted Rutgers’s win chance by 13 points.

How Rutgers fans took it: “If only we took the points, who would’ve thought” r/CFB game thread

“That play was definitely worth a timeout..”
A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthBoston College fansRutgers fansusual

Box score

Boston College 28, Rutgers 21

Boston College covered −3 by 4. The total, 49, stayed under 53.5.

RutgersBoston CollegeTotal yardsRutgers 384Boston College 402384402Passing yardsRutgers 230Boston College 252230252Rushing yardsRutgers 154Boston College 150154150First downsRutgers 19Boston College 181918TurnoversRutgers 4Boston College 343Time of possessionRutgers 34:32Boston College 25:2834:3225:28
Team totalsRutgersBoston College
Total yards384402
Passing18 of 27, 230 yds18 of 29, 252 yds
Rushing41 for 154 yds32 for 150 yds
First downs1918
Third down4 of 124 of 12
Fourth down2 of 51 of 1
Turnovers43
Penalties5 for 40 yds4 for 28 yds
Time of possession34:3225:28

Rutgers leaders

  • Passing AJ Surace 18 of 27, 230 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing Antwan Raymond 27 for 134 yds; Clay Thevenin 7 for 36 yds
  • Receiving KJ Duff 8 for 137 yds, 2 TD; Jourdin Houston 5 for 40 yds

Boston College leaders

  • Passing Mason McKenzie 18 of 29, 252 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Mason McKenzie 13 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Evan Dickens 13 for 56 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Dawson Pough 4 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Landon Wright 2 for 60 yds

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Boston College favoredRutgers favored100%Win chanceBoston CollegeRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Boston College favoredRutgers favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 13:08 left7:45 p.m.
Rutgers 0, Boston College 0 · Boston College 80% to win
no rain · 72°
Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downs

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Boston Logan International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Rutgers · 5-7

Rated 68th in our preseason ratings, 75th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 36-40 vs Penn StateTop 25 #12 of 667

lost by 4 as a 14.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 36-40 vs Penn State. Chance to win started at 22%, low 4%, high 65%.

L 9-42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 33 as a 28.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 9-42 at Ohio State. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 35-20 vs Maryland #74 of 667

won by 15 as a 1.5-point favorite

Rutgers won 35-20 vs Maryland. Chance to win started at 63%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

L 13-35 @ IllinoisTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 22 as a 12.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 13-35 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 27-24 @ Purdue #92 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Rutgers won 27-24 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 35%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

L 10-56 vs OregonTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 46 as an 18.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 10-56 vs Oregon. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 21%.

L 19-38 @ WashingtonTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 19 as a 9.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 19-38 at Washington. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 65%.

L 28-31 @ Minnesota #37 of 667

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 28-31 at Minnesota. Chance to win started at 36%, low 13%, high 81%.

L 28-38 vs IowaTop 25 #40 of 667

lost by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog

Rutgers lost 28-38 vs Iowa. Chance to win started at 32%, low 1%, high 72%.

W 60-10 vs Norfolk State #249 of 667

won by 50 as a 45.5-point favorite

Rutgers won 60-10 vs Norfolk State. Never in doubt.

W 45-17 vs Miami (OH) #73 of 667

won by 28 as a 15.5-point favorite

Rutgers won 45-17 vs Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 91%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 34-31 vs Ohio #77 of 667

won by 3 as a 15.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Boston College · 2-10

Rated 130th in our preseason ratings, 131st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-12 @ Syracuse #156 of 667

won by 22 as a 2.5-point favorite

Boston College won 34-12 at Syracuse. Chance to win started at 50%, low 33%, high better than 99%.

L 34-36 vs Georgia TechTop 25 #42 of 667

lost by 2 as a 16.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 34-36 vs Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 76%.

L 13-45 vs SMUTop 25 #14 of 667

lost by 32 as a 10.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 13-45 vs SMU. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 36%.

L 10-25 vs Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 15 as a 30.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 10-25 vs Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 10%.

L 24-38 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #30 of 667

lost by 14 as a 25.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 24-38 at Louisville. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 14%.

L 23-38 vs UConn #62 of 667

lost by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 23-38 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 52%, low 1%, high 61%.

L 10-41 vs ClemsonTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 31 as a 13.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 10-41 vs Clemson. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 21%.

L 7-48 @ PittsburghTop 25 #53 of 667

lost by 41 as a 6.5-point underdog

Boston College lost 7-48 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 27%.

L 24-28 vs California #59 of 667

lost by 4 as a 6.5-point favorite

Boston College lost 24-28 vs California. Chance to win started at 72%, low 23%, high 95%.

L 20-30 @ Stanford #85 of 667

lost by 10 as a 13.5-point favorite

Boston College lost 20-30 at Stanford. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 93%.

L 40-42 @ Michigan State #72 of 667

lost by 2 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 66-10 vs Fordham #226 of 667

won by 56 as a 34.5-point favorite

Boston College won 66-10 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Boston College

  • Wk 1Lat Cincinnati15-34

Rutgers

  • Wk 1Lvs Massachusetts21-37

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Boston College’s explosive plays against Rutgers, 44 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Boston College’s explosive plays against Rutgers’s defense

    44 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Boston College offense, 76th percentile · Rutgers defense, 32nd

  2. Rutgers’s passing EPA against Boston College’s defense

    41 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Rutgers offense, 82nd percentile · Boston College defense, 41st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

RutgersBoston College
EPA/play, offense
Rutgers · 55Boston College · 19
EPA/play, defense
Rutgers · 13Boston College · 66
Success rate, offense
Rutgers · 63Boston College · 18
Success rate, defense
Rutgers · 16Boston College · 49
Explosive-play rate, offense
Rutgers · 86Boston College · 76
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rutgers · 32Boston College · 68
Rush EPA, offense
Rutgers · 20Boston College · 23
Rush EPA, defense
Rutgers · 6Boston College · 55
Pass EPA, offense
Rutgers · 82Boston College · 34
Pass EPA, defense
Rutgers · 17Boston College · 41

The series

Boston College leads the series 20-7-1

28 meetings since 1919 · Rutgers won the last meeting

Boston College wonRutgers won1919: Rutgers by 61956: Boston College by 321981: Boston College by 61982: Boston College by 11983: Boston College by 201984: Boston College by 121985: Boston College by 101986: Rutgers by 21987: Rutgers by 141988: Rutgers by 111989: Rutgers by 21990: Boston College by 51991: Rutgers by 71992: Boston College by 171993: Boston College by 101994: tie1995: Boston College by 31996: Boston College by 241997: Boston College by 141998: Boston College by 271999: Boston College by 202000: Boston College by 292001: Boston College by 312002: Boston College by 302003: Boston College by 102004: Boston College by 112019: Boston College by 142022: Rutgers by 119192022
  • 2022Rutgers 22-21Boston College lost 21-22 vs Rutgers. Chance to win started at 70%, low 16%, high 94%.
  • 2019Boston College 30-16Boston College won 30-16 at Rutgers. Chance to win started at 69%, low 57%, high 99%.
  • 2004Boston College 21-10
  • 2003Boston College 35-25
  • 2002Boston College 44-14

Each line is Boston College’s chance to win through that meeting. Boston College is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Boston College fans are in a better mood than Rutgers fans (72nd vs 26th among FBS fanbases), even with Rutgers favored.

  • Model · 48%
  • Line · 60%
  • Boston College fans · 72nd
  • Rutgers fans · 26th

Boston College favored by 3 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Boston College by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Rutgers.

opened −3.5now −3

The total fell 1 point.

opened 54.5now 53.5

Spread: −3.5 → −3 · Total: 54.5 → 53.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Boston College is worth +1.7 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 13th percentile.

46% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (22-26 home, 16-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 212 miles to get here.

Where next