Next game: at Washington
Washington’s best edge on Penn State is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Penn State offense against Washington defense
Washington offense against Penn State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.30 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 148 / 234 | 63.2 | 1839 #38 FBS | 7.9 | 13 #41 FBS | 5 | 143.3 | 54 | 58.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 234 pass attempts and 55 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Rocco Becht's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 7 | 3 | 9 / 14 | 64.3 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 125.5 | — | 28.3 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.17 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 89 | 374 | 4.2 | 5 | 42 | 6.9 | 4.6 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 89 carries and 6 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Hansen just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Taylor is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight216 lb 78th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share6.3% bottom 22th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Hansen's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.10 EPA/play | 26 | 5 | 44 | 260 | 5.9 | 3 | 59 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 44 carries and 4 catches in 5 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Wallace hits the crease and outruns the angle. Taylor is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry6.3 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Cam Wallace's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 57 | 246 | 4.3 | 2 | 16 | 19.7 | 6.6 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 57 carries and 3 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Peoples does a little of everything without one standout trait. Taylor is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry4.7 bottom 29th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share5.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View James Peoples's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.05 EPA/play | 25 | 5 | 31 | 160 | 5.2 | 1 | 61 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.83 EPA/play | — | 7 | 34 | 510 #69 FBS | 15 | 3 | 47 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 34 catches in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Sowell moves the chains on third down. Smith is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception15.0 66th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Chase Sowell's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +1.47 EPA/play | 6 | 3 | 12 | 344 | 28.7 | 2 | 70 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Howard beats you over the top. Smith is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception28.8 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.5 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Koby Howard's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.26 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 25 | 264 | 10.6 | 3 | 33 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 25 catches in 8 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.5 56th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume25 83th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Benjamin Brahmer's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.09 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 23 | 244 | 10.6 | 1 | 25 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Eskildsen moves the chains on third down. Smith is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 bottom 27th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brett Eskildsen's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.47 EPA/play | 87 | 7 | 28 | 225 | 8.0 | 3 | 20 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 28 catches in 7 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.4 bottom 24th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume28 90th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Andrew Rappleyea's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.76 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 9 | 129 | 14.3 | 1 | 39 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.27 EPA/play | 84 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 0 | 20 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight317 lb 88th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keanu Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 19 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Yvan Kemajou's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight326 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Siale Taupaki's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 33 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 86th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Alexander McPherson's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 1 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 94th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ikenna Ezeogu's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 91 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Armstrong Nnodim's full player page | |||||||
| 98 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 13 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 10.5 #17 FBS | 5 #38 FBS | 2 | 2 #51 FBS |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Starter — 58 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.1% 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate8.6% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tony Rojas's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 8 | 8 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 43 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.0% 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.8% bottom 32th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kooper Ebel's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 7 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cael Brezina's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 10 | 8 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.7% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume22 bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Bacon's full player page | |||||||||
| 25 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 26 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jamison Patton's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Zion Tracy's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 31 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Marcus Neal's full player pagePD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Press Corner | 17 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS | 2.5 | 0 |
Press corner· Takeaway threatLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josiah Zayas's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jeremiah Cooper's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 2 | 8 | 17 | 8 #13 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate47.1% 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Audavion Collins's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 5 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Daryus Dixson's full player page | |||||||
| — | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 94 | 8 | 12/16 | 75 | 25/25 | 61 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 8 | 32 | 1305 | 40.8 | 60 | 12 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.76 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 7 | 129 | 18.4 | 0 | 34 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.76 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 20 | 219 | 11 | 0 | 38 |
Biggest plays from Penn State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Penn State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:13 · Wisconsin down 3, takes the leadColton Joseph finds Jacob Harris for a 72-yard touchdownWisconsin at Penn State, week 4Q4, 1:13 · Wisconsin 24, Penn State 201:13Go-ahead touchdown for Wisconsin with 1:13 left1:13Go-ahead touchdown for Wisconsin with 1:13 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Wisconsin with 1:13 leftC.Joseph pass complete short middle to J.Harris caught at WIS47, for 72 yards to the PSU00 touchdown,, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q2, 13:36 · USC breaks the tieJayden Maiava finds Tanook Hines for an 11-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q2, 13:36 · USC 14, Penn State 7USC took the lead in the second quarterUSC took the lead in the second quarterJ. Maiava pass to T. Hines for 11 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden kick)▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q1, 10:37 · USC tiedJayden Maiava finds Trent Mosley for a 19-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q1, 10:37 · USC 7, Penn State 0USC opened the scoringUSC opened the scoringJ. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 19 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden kick)▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 11:11 · USC up 1Jayden Maiava finds Kayden Dixon-Wyatt for a 10-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q4, 11:11 · USC 31, Penn State 23Jayden Maiava's third touchdown pass of the gameJayden Maiava's third touchdown pass of the gameJ.Maiava pass complete short left to K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q1, 7:26 · Penn State down 7, ties itRocco Becht finds Andrew Rappleyea for a 13-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q1, 7:26 · Penn State 7, USC 7Penn State tied the game in the first quarterPenn State tied the game in the first quarterR.Becht pass complete short left to A.Rappleyea caught at USC05, for 13 yards to the USC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q1, 5:07 · Northwestern up 3Aidan Chiles runs 2 yards for a touchdownPenn State at Northwestern, week 5Q1, 5:07 · Northwestern 10, Penn State 0▲18%Northwestern’s chance to win, 62% to 80%▲18%Northwestern’s chance to win, 62% to 80%A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Penn State lost to Wisconsin after being 97% to win; the closest win was at Temple, down to 34%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Penn State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Penn State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Penn StateTony Rojas leads Penn State with 58 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Penn State fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Penn State reads strongest in passing EPA allowed (top 6%) and field position (O) (top 22%); the crux lives in rushing EPA allowed, where Penn State sits at the 19th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Penn State is worth +3.8 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 43rd percentile of 133 programs
74% at home, 63% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (42-15 home, 26-15 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Penn State has beaten the number by −3.6 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.2 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Beaver Stadium seats 106,572 and has averaged 101% full (107,694, 34 games reported). Visitors cover a median 379 miles to get here since 2018 — 62nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 9% of the 2026 roster (10 of 109 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 60 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeKaytron Allen does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- Short yardageNicholas Singleton converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Carson Hansen and James Peoples split the carries (87/148 vs 61/148) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Chase Sowell (WR) and Benjamin Brahmer (TE) split the targets (49/87 vs 38/87) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Penn State actually scores
47th percentile quality, 48th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Penn State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 8th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 8th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Penn State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
20th percentile success on standard downs, 47th on passing downs — a 27-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Penn State by half
1st-half offense ranks 73rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 19th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Penn State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.13; 42nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.42 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Penn State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 205-play sample) — mid-pack, 79 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Penn State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 176-play sample) — mid-pack, 6 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 36% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 23% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
9 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (30 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Roughly even on flags: 37 penalties committed vs. 43 drawn on opponents.
374 penalty yards committed vs. 376 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Penn State
Most similar programs · Penn StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 42°, between 34° and 55° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 53°, and 8 in 10 ran between 39° and 76° (48 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.