Penn State

2-0AP #14

Big Ten · Matt Campbell, year 1 (2-0) · Beaver Stadium · 106,572 · 108,489 avg in 2026

The nationAP #14 · Coaches #15up 2 from last week
The model#35 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #13 (+19.8) · FPI #14
The marketPenn State by 39.5vs Buffalo · our model 91% Penn State · a number, not a pick

LastW 27–9 at Temple · Sat Sep 12 · Rocco Becht 268 pass yds, 3 TD, 11 rush yds

Nextvs Buffalo · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Beaver Stadium · Penn State by 39.5 · series 3-1, won the last 3 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
36.0
Pts allowed/game
4.5
Total yards/gm#46 / 138 · 67th pct
451.5
Rush yards/gm#82 / 138 · 41st pct
155.5
Pass yards/gm#37 / 138 · 74th pct
296.0
Yards allowed/gm#15 / 138 · 89th pct
215.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#61 / 138 · 56th pct
110.0
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down convT-#33 / 138 · 73rd pct
50.0%
All 76 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
903451.5/gm6.79/play#46 / 138 · 67th pct#31 / 69 · 56th pct#6 / 18 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
430215.0/gm3.94/play#15 / 138 · 89th pct#14 / 69 · 80th pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
311155.5/gm2.34/play#82 / 138 · 41st pct#44 / 69 · 37th pct#9 / 18 · 53rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
220110.0/gm2.02/play#61 / 138 · 56th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#8 / 18 · 58th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7939.5/gmT-#51 / 138 · 62nd pctT-#25 / 69 · 64th pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5929.5/gmT-#29 / 138 · 79th pctT-#21 / 69 · 69th pct#3 / 18 · 86th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
21.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 18th pctT-#56 / 69 · 14th pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 69 · 64th pctT-#4 / 18 · 67th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
592296.0/gm4.45/play#37 / 138 · 74th pct#21 / 69 · 70th pct#6 / 18 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
210105.0/gm1.93/play#4 / 138 · 97th pct#3 / 69 · 96th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5427.0/gmT-#83 / 138 · 39th pctT-#48 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 18 · 36th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5025.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 76th pctT-#19 / 69 · 72nd pct#9 / 18 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4120.5/gmT-#59 / 138 · 57th pctT-#35 / 69 · 49th pct#11 / 18 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3216.0/gmT-#43 / 138 · 67th pctT-#26 / 69 · 60th pctT-#8 / 18 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
73.5/gmT-#11 / 138 · 91st pctT-#9 / 69 · 85th pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 96th pctT-#1 / 69 · 93rd pctT-#1 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#6 / 115 · 95th pct#6 / 59 · 91st pct#2 / 16 · 91st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
203.4203.4
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 69 · 20th pctT-#10 / 18 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#77 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#40 / 69 · 29th pctT-#10 / 18 · 33rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 69 · 22nd pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 69 · 62nd pctT-#4 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
115.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 49th pctT-#37 / 69 · 42nd pct#11 / 18 · 42nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 88th pctT-#10 / 69 · 83rd pctT-#3 / 18 · 81st pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4824.0/gmT-#46 / 138 · 65th pctT-#31 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 18 · 64th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#20 / 138 · 85th pctT-#18 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
147.0/gmT-#28 / 138 · 77th pctT-#14 / 69 · 78th pctT-#4 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#8 / 138 · 93rd pctT-#7 / 69 · 89th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2814.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 64th pctT-#19 / 69 · 70th pctT-#6 / 18 · 67th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2311.5/gmT-#19 / 138 · 84th pctT-#6 / 69 · 89th pctT-#4 / 18 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 69 · 49th pctT-#8 / 18 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#11 / 18 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 69 · 43rd pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 69 · 49th pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
65:0232:31/gm#45 / 138 · 68th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
54:5827:29/gm#36 / 138 · 74th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.94 EPA/play3234 / 4575.6539
#35 FBS
12.07
#9 FBS
0227.57673.2
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.17 EPA/play212301324.4013
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.59 EPA/play629229
#18 FBS
25.4156
+0.91 EPA/play279113120
+1.03 EPA/play18268714.53
#9 FBS
23
+1.06 EPA/play427598.4125

2026 stat leaders · Penn State

through 2 games

Koby Howard leads Penn State with 229 receiving yards through 2 games.

1. Koby Howard WR 229 receiving yards
2. Tony Rojas LB 14 tackles
3. Rocco Becht QB 539 passing yards
4. Cael Brezina LB 11 tackles
5. Zion Tracy CB 10 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Penn State fields an elite methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
81st pct EPA/play
Tempo
85th pct success, 30th explosiveness
Defense
73rd pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
81st pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Penn State · 2025

Penn State reads strongest in rushing epa (top 15%) and success rate (top 16%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Penn State sits at the 29th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.24
81st
Success Rate +0.47
85th
Explosive Plays +1.21
30th
Rushing EPA +0.21
86th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.09
73rd
Success Rate Allowed +0.41
57th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.18
81st
Passing EPA Allowed +0.18
69th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.33
70th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.09
45th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Penn State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Penn State is worth +3.5 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 39th percentile of 133 programs

75% at home, 67% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (40–13 home, 26–13 away). Interval ±4.1.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Penn State has beaten the number by −3.6 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±7.6 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Beaver Stadium seats 106,572 and has averaged 101% full (107,777, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 366 miles to get here since 2018 — 59th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 9% of the 2026 roster (10 of 109 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.

Home40–13Away26–13Edge+3.5 ±4.1Visitor trip366 mi

More in this tab

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Penn State

CFB Zeitgeist

#35

+4.9

SP+

#13

+19.8

FPI

#14

+16.4

Elo

#8

1880

The national models put Penn State between 8th and 14th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 35th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Penn State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

56°F average kickoff temp; 20% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 85 home games with weather data.

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