Next game: vs Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee’s best edge on Western Kentucky is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Middle Tennessee offense against Western Kentucky defense
Western Kentucky offense against Middle Tennessee defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.08 EPA/play | 16 | 8 | 147 / 258 | 57.0 | 1587 #69 FBS | 6.2 | 12 #53 FBS | 4 | 120.9 | 31 | 38.4 | 6.0 | 3.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 258 pass attempts and 46 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Gagliano operates within the system without forcing anything. Purdie is the one who pushes it downfield on every look. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.3 bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %57.3% bottom 13th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Roman Gagliano's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · -0.28 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 112 | 586 #54 FBS | 5.2 | 2 | 34 | — | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 112 carries and 5 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Martin just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Davis is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight232 lb 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.2 bottom 11th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Antonio Martin's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 54 | 348 | 6.4 | 2 | 54 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — 54 carries and 26 catches in 7 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. wins in space out of the backfield. Davis is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Receiving share32.5% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry6.4 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Terrence Brown Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.44 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 45 | 510 #69 FBS | 11.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 41 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 45 catches and 4 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Lacy wins underneath on volume and route precision. Jackson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume45 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception11.4 bottom 28th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cam'Ron Lacy's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.39 EPA/play | 85 | 8 | 18 | 234 | 13 | 3 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Clifton beats you over the top. Jackson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception18.3 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Neo Clifton's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.60 EPA/play | 1 | 5 | 9 | 176 | 19.6 | 1 | 41 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.28 EPA/play | 83 | 5 | 11 | 174 | 15.8 | 2 | 80 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. This week's matchup — TE Perdue creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Wimbush is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception18.9 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate18.2% 82th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Koraun Perdue's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.01 EPA/play | 13 | 5 | 10 | 109 | 10.9 | 0 | 36 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 6 | 5 | 9 | 97 | 10.8 | 1 | 16 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.07 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 0 | 16 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Zeion Simpson-Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 91 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 19 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Felix Hixon's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 93 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.2 76th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aidan Butts's full player page | |||||||
| 90 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 26 | 8 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 68 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume68 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.4% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Korey Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 13 | 8 | 48 | 28 | 20 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume48 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Ashton Taylor's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 17 | 7 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume20 bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayson Lowe's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.2% 75th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate7.9% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaven Call's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 46 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reggie Johnson's full player page | |||||||||
| 16 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 94 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perimeter Tackler | 2 | 8 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Starter — 41 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Jackson Lowe's full player pageTackle volume41 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Box Safety | 30 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 40 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume40 76th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bryce Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 7 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 28 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kalen Woods's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 11 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 26 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.7% bottom 50th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View James Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 21 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jason Hardy's full player page | |||||||
| 22 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 91 | 7 | 12/14 | 85.7 | 19/19 | 55 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 92 | 8 | 39 | 1910 | 49 | 76 | 11 | 6 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.66 EPA/play | — | 5 | 13 | 357 | 27.5 | 1 | 100 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.44 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 | 25 |
| -0.07 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
Biggest plays from Middle Tennessee’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Middle Tennessee’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q3, 12:32 · Kennesaw State up 2Tywon Christopher takes an interception 59 yards for a pick-sixKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, week 9Q3, 12:32 · Kennesaw State 27, Middle Tennessee 1759Pick-six59Pick-sixPick-sixR.Gagliano pass intercepted by T.Christopher at KSU41 T.Christopher return 59 yards to the MTSU00 touchdown B.Woods III pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 7:59 · Middle Tennessee down 7, ties itRoman Gagliano runs 1 yard for a touchdownKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, week 9Q1, 7:59 · Middle Tennessee 7, Kennesaw State 7Middle Tennessee tied the game in the first quarterMiddle Tennessee tied the game in the first quarterR.Gagliano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q2, 11:09 · Middle Tennessee breaks the tieA. Martin Jr. runs 7 yards for a touchdownKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, week 9Q2, 11:09 · Middle Tennessee 14, Kennesaw State 7Middle Tennessee took the lead in the second quarterMiddle Tennessee took the lead in the second quarterA.Martin Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 5:59 · Kennesaw State up 10Korey Smith intercepts Rickie CollinsKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, week 9Q3, 5:59 · Kennesaw State 27, Middle Tennessee 173Kennesaw State’s turnover led to a field goal3Kennesaw State’s turnover led to a field goalKennesaw State’s turnover led to a field goalR.Collins pass intercepted by K.Smith at KSU43 K.Smith return 0 yards to the KSU43, End Of Play▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 11:50 · Kennesaw State up 7Rickie Collins finds Dylan Gary for a 28-yard touchdownKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, week 9Q4, 11:50 · Kennesaw State 34, Middle Tennessee 20▲6%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 88% to 94%▲6%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 88% to 94%R.Collins pass complete deep left to D.Gary caught at MTSU00, for 28 yards to the MTSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 9:31 · Kennesaw State down 7Rickie Collins finds Davis Bryson for a 23-yard touchdownKennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, week 9Q2, 9:31 · Kennesaw State 13, Middle Tennessee 14Kennesaw State went for two after the touchdown and made itKennesaw State went for two after the touchdown and made itDavis Bryson 23 yd pass from Rickie Collins ( Run for Two-Point Conversion)▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Middle Tennessee lost to Kennesaw State after being 82% to win; the closest win was at Florida International, down to 17%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Middle Tennessee during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Middle Tennessee
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Middle TennesseeKorey Smith leads Middle Tennessee with 68 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+12 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Middle Tennessee fields a limited pass-first offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Middle Tennessee reads strongest in explosive plays (top 36%) and explosive plays allowed (top 37%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Middle Tennessee sits at the 8th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Middle Tennessee is worth +5.5 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 75th percentile of 133 programs
49% at home, 30% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (19-20 home, 16-38 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Middle Tennessee has beaten the number by −0.5 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.4 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium seats 30,788 and has averaged 42% full (13,068, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 356 miles to get here since 2018 — 55th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (28 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downMyles Butler is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatHunter Tipton is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatLandon Collins is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatMyles Butler is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatNahzae Cox is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Cam'Ron Lacy (WR) and Koraun Perdue (TE) split the targets (64/83 vs 19/83) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Koraun Perdue produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Middle Tennessee actually scores
37th percentile quality, 60th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Middle Tennessee’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 51st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 64th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Middle Tennessee hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
27th percentile success on standard downs, 64th on passing downs — a 37-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Middle Tennessee by half
1st-half offense ranks 23rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 73rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Middle Tennessee’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.08; 25th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.40 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Middle Tennessee’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 225-play sample) — mid-pack, 20 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Middle Tennessee’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.3% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 151-play sample) — mid-pack, 90 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 71% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 26% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~18% league rate.
6 interceptions of 23 disrupted passes (17 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 58 penalties committed vs. 56 drawn on opponents, a 35-yard edge.
426 penalty yards committed vs. 461 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Middle Tennessee
Most similar programs · Middle TennesseeReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 55°, between 43° and 67° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 66°, and 8 in 10 ran between 53° and 79° (52 of 63 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.