Middle Tennessee
1-1Conference USA · Derek Mason, year 3 (7-19) · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 30,788 · 16,227 avg in 2026
LastL 26–28 at Marshall · Sat Sep 12 · Roman Gagliano 243 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Nextvs Nevada · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Nevada by 3.5 · series 1-0 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 80 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.15 EPA/play | 16 | 2 | 45 / 73 | 61.6 | 443 #63 FBS | 6.1 | 4 #36 FBS | 1 | 128.0 | 44 | 26.4 | 6.4 | 1.4 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.48 EPA/play | 8 | 2 | 24 | 135 | 5.6 | 0 | 26 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.50 EPA/play | 3 | 2 | 17 | 190 #31 FBS | 11.2 | 2 #24 FBS | 24 | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. This week's matchup — WR Lacy wins underneath on volume and route precision. Williams is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume17 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception10.9 bottom 29th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cam'Ron Lacy's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.51 EPA/play | 6 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 | 15 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 12 of 27 classified this way. Played in 2 of 3 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Zeion Simpson-Smith's full player page | |||||||
| 91 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 26 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 46 of 84 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Korey Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| 13 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 44 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 46 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 19 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 2 | 3/4 | 75 | 7/7 | 16 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 2 | 6 | 289 | 48.2 | 57 | 3 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.50 EPA/play | 3 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 | 25 |
2026 stat leaders · Middle Tennessee
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · Middle TennesseeKorey Smith leads Middle Tennessee with 16 tackles through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Middle Tennessee fields a limited pass-first offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Middle Tennessee reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 24%) and explosive plays (top 51%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Middle Tennessee sits at the 4th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Middle Tennessee · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Middle Tennessee is worth +5.3 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 70th percentile of 133 programs
47% at home, 29% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17–19 home, 15–36 away). Interval ±4.1.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Middle Tennessee has beaten the number by −1.9 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±7.3 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium seats 30,788 and has averaged 43% full (13,255, 24 games reported). Visitors cover a median 356 miles to get here since 2018 — 55th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (28 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 44 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
Scheme claims
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Middle Tennessee hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
87th percentile success on standard downs, 68th on passing downs — a 19-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| App State | 44th | 90th |
| Arizona | 92nd | 86th |
| Arkansas | 60th | 80th |
| Auburn | 75th | 55th |
| Ball State | 12th | 24th |
| Baylor | 40th | 96th |
| Boise State | 58th | 46th |
| Boston College | 27th | 56th |
| Buffalo | 7th | 14th |
| California | 9th | 25th |
| Central Michigan | 16th | 6th |
| Charlotte | 73rd | 83rd |
| Clemson | 1st | 19th |
| Coastal Carolina | 61st | 52nd |
| Colorado | 35th | 77th |
| Colorado State | 82nd | 91st |
| Delaware | 70th | 31st |
| Duke | 20th | 29th |
| Eastern Michigan | 52nd | 10th |
| Florida Atlantic | 43rd | 87th |
| Florida International | 46th | 43rd |
| Florida State | 28th | 65th |
| Georgia Southern | 24th | 45th |
| Georgia Tech | 58th | 44th |
| Hawai'i | 18th | 41st |
| Iowa State | 4th | 23rd |
| Jacksonville State | 65th | 82nd |
| Kansas | 70th | 35th |
| LSU | 33rd | 98th |
| Liberty | 14th | 59th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 92nd |
| Louisville | 96th | 70th |
| Memphis | 69th | 65th |
| Michigan | 2nd | 62nd |
| Michigan State | 62nd | 29th |
| Middle Tennessee | 87th | 68th |
| Missouri | 36th | 85th |
| Navy | 98th | 59th |
| Nevada | 77th | 52nd |
| New Mexico State | 45th | 75th |
| Norfolk State | 16th | 9th |
| North Dakota State | 86th | 27th |
| North Texas | 49th | 68th |
| Ohio | 38th | 17th |
| Ohio State | 90th | 40th |
| Oklahoma State | 41st | 49th |
| Ole Miss | 94th | 50th |
| Oregon | 35th | 33rd |
| Oregon State | 10th | 38th |
| Pittsburgh | 30th | 76th |
| Purdue | 83rd | 88th |
| Rutgers | 30th | 71st |
| Sacramento State | 23rd | 14th |
| Sam Houston | 78th | 61st |
| San Diego State | 4th | 40th |
| San José State | 54th | 22nd |
| South Alabama | 50th | 73rd |
| South Florida | 91st | 52nd |
| Stanford | 76th | 15th |
| Syracuse | 48th | 64th |
| TCU | 93rd | 8th |
| Tennessee | 65th | 78th |
| Texas | 72nd | 94th |
| Texas A&M | 85th | 72nd |
| Texas Tech | 88th | 48th |
| Troy | 22nd | 59th |
| Tulane | 31st | 2nd |
| Tulsa | 56th | 1st |
| UAB | 65th | 81st |
| UNLV | 51st | 7th |
| USC | 97th | 99th |
| UTSA | 99th | 29th |
| Utah State | 4th | 93rd |
| Vanderbilt | 80th | 12th |
| Wake Forest | 56th | 97th |
| Washington | 81st | 4th |
| Washington State | 8th | 3rd |
| Western Kentucky | 25th | 34th |
| Western Michigan | 39th | 20th |
| Wisconsin | 13th | 18th |
| Wyoming | 65th | 36th |
Halftime identity
Middle Tennessee by half
1st-half offense ranks 48th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 72nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Tendency drift
Season by season
How Middle Tennessee’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
Pass-depth identity
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Middle Tennessee’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (67.8% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 64-play sample) — mid-pack, 16 of 41 qualifying offenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Middle Tennessee
Most similar programs · Middle TennesseeReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Conditions
68°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 68 home games with weather data.