The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Joe Moorhead

Followed Tom Arth. Joe Moorhead moved Akron from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

Peak, then fade
27–47
2018–now · 2 stints
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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerMISSISSIPPI STATEAKRONPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelMississippi State, 2018: 8-5, Power Program III2018Mississippi State, 2019: 6-7, Power Program III2019+2.9Akron, 2022: 2-10, Regional Program VI2022Akron, 2023: 2-10, Regional Program VI2023Akron, 2024: 4-8, Regional Program VI2024Akron, 2025: 5-7, Regional Program VI2025Akron, 2026: in progress, Regional Program V2026+1.8One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Mississippi State, 2 seasons
+2.9
Power Program III → Power Program III.
Akron, 5 seasons (active)
+1.8
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Mississippi State2018–2019▼ 1.3ptAkron2022–2026▼ 10.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Akron10.0pt#134 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Chuck Martin.

Rivalry record
5–4
55.6% · 3 rivals
One-score games
7–15
31.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$664,063 (est.)
bigger than 1% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Kent State2–250%
Buffalo1–233%
Ole Miss2–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Chuck Martin0–3
3 meetings, 2022–2025
’22 L’23 L’25 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–4 0.0%
Power Program
4–8 33.3%
National Program
5–6 45.5%
Regional Program
11–25 30.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.08
#191 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.43
#19 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
Akroncaretaker
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V
Joe Moorhead moved Akron from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

8th-best Akron tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-25.2 pts
#188 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+4.8 pts
#84 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tom Arth (2019–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record2–102–104–85–70–0
Postseason
Recruiting rank#122#108#101#128#132
Style — pass rate
Pass rate56.855.155.148.446.8
Coordinators
OCBilly Fessler
DCTim TibesarTim TibesarTim TibesarTim TibesarTim Tibesar
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense239181939
Defense3948446111
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%62.254.554.242.547.7
Red-zone pass%48.836.156.149.550.0
4th-down go%opp. territory34.133.329.428.6
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
66
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
82
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-16
#92 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 228 lbs
across 46 of 66 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.3 lbs
#201 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#168 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: MD (6), PA (5), FL (5), TX (4), CA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.7
position-weighted
Net
+0.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Reese Poffenbarger (QB) from North Texas
Biggest loss: Zach Gibson (QB) to Georgia Tech
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
213 lbs
6′4″ avg · #383 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
201 lbs
5′11″ avg · #606 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
185 lbs
6′0″ avg · #706 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
243 lbs
6′4″ avg · #444 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
306 lbs
6′4″ avg · #503 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
276 lbs
6′3″ avg · #556 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
230 lbs
6′1″ avg · #298 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′0″ avg · #523 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Running back via the portal
78%
#18 of 208 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
69%
#26 of 243 stints

AI Narratives — “Akron — stat check”.

13–35
2018–2019
Mississippi Statecaretaker
National Program I → Power Program III
Joe Moorhead moved Mississippi State from National Program I to Power Program III in 2 seasons.

1st-best Mississippi State tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+12.6 pts
#58 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+12.1 pts
#61 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Dan Mullen (2009–2017) · succeeded by Mike Leach (2020–2022).

Season20182019Trend
Record & result
Record8–56–7
PostseasonL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#27#24
Style — pass rate
Pass rate38.637.3
Coordinators
OCLuke GetsyLuke Getsy
DCBob ShoopBob Shoop
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6780
Defense9945
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%38.934.2
Red-zone pass%31.424.0
4th-down go%opp. territory32.437.0
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows Safety from high school
100%
#201 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2018: Lost to Iowa 22–27 Outback Bowl2019: Lost to Louisville 28–38 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Martinas Rankin (2018), Jordan Thomas (2018), Hunter Bradley (2018), Logan Cooke (2018), Jeffery Simmons (2019), Montez Sweat (2019), Johnathan Abram (2019), Elgton Jenkins (2019) + 6 more

14–12
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.