The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kalani Sitake

Followed Bronco Mendenhall. Kalani Sitake moved BYU from National Program I to Power Program III in 11 seasons.

84–45
2016–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

BYU, 11 seasons (active)
+0.1
Power Program III → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%BYU2016–2026▼ 4.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
BYU13.7pt#67 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–5 against his rivals. Just 2–4 against Kyle Whittingham.

Rivalry record
6–5
54.5% · 2 rivals
One-score games
25–22
53.2% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Utah2–433%
Utah State4–180%
The toughest matchup
6 meetings, 2016–2024
’16 L · blew a 6-pt lead’17 L’18 L · blew a 20-pt lead’19 L’21 W · wire to wire’24 W · erased a 11-pt deficit
33% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
12–22 35.3%
National Program
28–8 77.8%
Regional Program
29–11 72.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.38
#43 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.17
#69 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Kalani Sitake is an elite coach comparable to Kirby Smart

Kalani Sitake’s Success at BYU Is No Fluke As Elite Comparison to Kirby Smart Emerges

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Feb 27, 2026 · via BYUFootball

Coaching career

2016–now
BYUcaretaker🏆 coach of the year
National Program I → Power Program III
Kalani Sitake moved BYU from National Program I to Power Program III in 11 seasons.

4th-best BYU tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+14.0 pts
#52 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+9.9 pts
#67 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bronco Mendenhall (2005–2015).

Season20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record9–44–97–67–611–110–38–55–711–212–20–0
PostseasonW bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#49#66#78#81#78#71#55#66#44#55#21
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.150.943.650.246.944.847.252.445.543.338.7
Coordinators
OCTy DetmerTy DetmerJeff GrimesJeff GrimesJeff GrimesAaron RoderickAaron RoderickAaron RoderickAaron RoderickAaron RoderickAaron Roderick
DCIlaisa TuiakiIlaisa TuiakiIlaisa TuiakiIlaisa TuiakiIlaisa TuiakiIlaisa TuiakiIlaisa TuiakiJay HillJay HillJay HillKelly Poppinga
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense4119796998958110478278
Defense9151776085311239597659
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%37.542.542.849.359.255.851.552.249.641.041.5
Red-zone pass%28.340.238.846.241.943.043.350.032.539.827.8
4th-down go%opp. territory31.134.136.723.363.346.240.637.938.340.8
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
60
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
94
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-34
#125 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Bear Bachmeier On3 modeled · $2,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 247 lbs
across 55 of 60 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.6 lbs
#53 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#110 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: UT (23), CA (11), AZ (5), NV (3), GA (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.8
position-weighted
Net
+0.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Kedon Slovis (QB) from Pittsburgh
Biggest loss: Jake Retzlaff (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Ty Detmer → Jeff Grimes · 2018the offense leveled up
30th pct74th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 40.0% → 46.1% (+6.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Jeff Grimes → Aaron Roderick · 2021the system held
83rd pct88th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 54.2% → 53.6% (-0.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 48% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Ilaisa Tuiaki → Jay Hill · 2023the defense improved
21st pct49th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Jay Hill → Kelly Poppinga · 2026
76th pct59th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
208 lbs
6′2″ avg · #533 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
216 lbs
6′0″ avg · #106 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
198 lbs
6′2″ avg · #152 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
247 lbs
6′4″ avg · #292 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
310 lbs
6′5″ avg · #360 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
290 lbs
6′3″ avg · #256 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′2″ avg · #232 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
184 lbs
6′0″ avg · #655 of 771 · less than most
Safety
199 lbs
6′1″ avg · #126 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
80%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat Wyoming 24–21 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2018: Beat Western Michigan 49–18 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2019: Lost to Hawai'i 34–38 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl2020: Beat UCF 49–23 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl2021: Lost to UAB 28–31 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl2022: Beat SMU 24–23 New Mexico Bowl2024: Beat Colorado 36–14 Valero Alamo Bowl2025: Beat Georgia Tech 25–21 Pop-Tarts Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Bronson Kaufusi (2016), Jamaal Williams (2017), Fred Warner (2018), Sione Takitaki (2019), Zach Wilson (2021), Brady Christensen (2021), Khyiris Tonga (2021), Chris Wilcox (2021) + 8 more

Coach of the Year: Big 12 Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year (2025)

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Brady Christensen (2020), Keelan Marion (2024), LJ Martin (2026)

84–45
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.