This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianBYUUtahUtahUtah StateUtah StatePower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelBYU when he took over: 42.4 (National Program I), its final 2015 readingtook overBYU, 2016: 9-4, Power Program IIIBYU, 2016: 9-4, Power Program III20169-4BYU, 2017: 4-9, National Program I20174-9BYU, 2018: 7-6, National Program I20187-6BYU, 2019: 7-6, National Program I20197-6BYU, 2020: 11-1, National Program I202011-1BYU, 2021: 10-3, Power Program III202110-3BYU, 2022: 8-5, Power Program III20228-5BYU, 2023: 5-7, National Program I20235-7BYU, 2024: 11-2, National Program I202411-2BYU, 2025: 12-2, National Program I202512-2BYU, 2026: 7-1, National Program IBYU, 2026: 7-1, National Program I20267-1+0.1best: 2021gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 6-2

2016Poinsettia BowlW 24-212018Famous Idaho Potato BowlW 49-182019Hawaii BowlL 34-382020Boca Raton BowlW 49-232021Independence BowlL 28-312022New Mexico BowlW 24-232024Alamo BowlW 36-142025Pop-Tarts BowlW 25-21

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 27-20 vs. Arizona State Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-1
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextat Utah Sat Nov 7
  • Stature31st of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #8 → #7 up one
  • Playoff odds 18% → 17% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Utah

Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ABC · No. 3 Utah is 8-0 · Sitake vs. Morgan Scalley (not counting 1 game in seasons either team changed coaches) · BYU’s chance to win: 31% (the site’s model)

His week

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 18th of 138 per play. Defense: 49th.

Offense, per play18thRunning offense5thDefense, per play49thPass defense34thWorstBest
Offense, per play18th of 138Running offense5th of 138Defense, per play49th of 138Pass defense34th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is BYU. The other two rows are where BYU stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Utah (8-0)ABC31%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Baylor (5-3)44%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Kansas (3-5)71%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Cincinnati (5-3)78%

Percent: BYU’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where BYU stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

24th30th36thPreseason32ndUtah Tech W 63-7Utah Tech W 63-7W 63-7Utah Tech32ndArizona W 28-17Arizona W 28-17W 28-17Arizona32ndColorado State W 41-23Colorado State W 41-23W 41-23Colorado State32ndTCU W 17-10TCU W 17-10W 17-10TCU32ndIowa State W 24-10Iowa State W 24-10W 24-10Iowa State32ndNotre Dame W 28-24Notre Dame W 28-24W 28-24Notre Dame32ndUCF L 31-39UCF L 31-39L 31-39UCF29thArizona State W 27-20Arizona State W 27-20W 27-20Arizona State32nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 27-20 vs. Arizona State9 headlines · 45th of 138Kalani Sitake learns his lesson from UCF game against Arizona State BYU Cougars Wire
  2. Oct 19–25L 31-39 at UCF20 headlines · 23rd of 138Why Nick Saban was blown away by Kalani Sitake, BYU Cougars win over Notre Dame Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 28-24 vs. Notre Dame10 headlines · 37th of 138BYU football’s Kalani Sitake sends confident message to players for Notre Dame blockbuster Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 24-10 vs. Iowa State9 headlines · 43rd of 138Kalani Sitake | BYU Football | Postgame Press Conference | Iowa State | October 9, 2026 BYU Athletics
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 17-10 at TCU7 headlines · 53rd of 138Kalani Sitake Gives Encouraging Update on LJ Martin, Isaiah Glasker Injuries Heartland College Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game6 headlines · 55th of 138Kalani Sitake says No. 9 Cougars will use early bye week to their advantage Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from BYU’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 71st percentile offense, 60th percentile defense.

BYU, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —71st
efficiency — 71st percentile success rate, 2016–25
B+71st
Standard-downs success
B63rd
Passing-downs success
B68th
Trench push (line yards)
B-59th
Red-zone scoring rate
C+47th
Power-success (short yardage)
B-55th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B
of which —60th
60th percentile SP+ defense, 2016–25
C+48th
Front-7 havoc
B67th
Secondary havoc
C43rd
Stuff rate (run defense)
B60th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

7%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled33rd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points a game · AP-ranked
  • ▼ Lower
    Age 51 · coaching at his alma mater
  • ▲ Higher
    23-4 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.