This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, won 5 straight, on track for 10-2 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025Rate BowlL 17-20

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 21-16 at San José State Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-1 won 5 straight
  • On track for10-2 regular season
  • Nextat Nevada Fri Nov 6
  • Stature119th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll unranked → #22 into the poll
  • Playoff odds 6% → 5% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Friday: at Nevada

Fri Nov 6, 9 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Nevada is 3-5 · Eck vs. Jeff Choate: 1-0 · New Mexico’s chance to win: 86% (the site’s model)

A few stories this week →

Fans are feeling good about New Mexico

New Mexico had to replace 129 players in 2024 and 2025. But this year? They kept almost everyone. A rare feat in the G6. It's paid off. “We kept guys who could have left and made a lot more money.” Free link: www.nytimes.com/athletic/774...

Religion under college of arts and sciences? Hi all, wanted to double check that religion courses are under the college of arts and sciences. The website is a bit unclear about this and I want to make sure the classes I take will actually count towards my credit hour requirement (they have to be CoAaS classes) Thanks!

✍️ New Mexico is ranked for the first time ever. Behind a top-5 defense, the Lobos are coming for more. "We don’t kiss the crack of anybody’s ass." Free link: www.nytimes.com/athletic/774...

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 75th of 138 per play. Defense: 2nd.

Offense, per play75thOffense, starting field position2ndDefense, per play2ndDefense, knocking offenses off schedule2ndWorstBest
Offense, per play75th of 138Offense, starting field position2nd of 138Defense, per play2nd of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule2nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is New Mexico. The other two rows are where New Mexico stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6at Nevada (3-5)CBS Sports Network86%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. UNLV (5-3)The CW78%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Wyoming (5-3)FS177%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Air Force (6-2)The CW70%

Percent: New Mexico’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where New Mexico stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

116th124th131stPreseason128thCentral Michigan W 38-7Central Michigan W 38-7W 38-7Central Michi…128thMercyhurst W 70-7Mercyhurst W 70-7W 70-7Mercyhurst128thOklahoma L 6-14Oklahoma L 6-14L 6-14Oklahoma128thNew Mexico State W 42-18New Mexico State W 42-18W 42-18New Mexico St…126thUTEP W 61-7UTEP W 61-7W 61-7UTEP124thHawai'i W 21-10Hawai'i W 21-10W 21-10Hawai'i123rdNorth Dakota State W 21-16North Dakota State W 21-16W 21-16North Dakota …122ndSan José State W 21-16San José State W 21-16W 21-16San José State119th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 21-16 at San José State5 headlines · 67th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 21-16 vs. North Dakota State4 headlines · 65th of 138New Mexico’s Jason Eck Makes Head-Turning Comment on NDSU Heavy
  3. Oct 12–18W 21-10 at Hawai'i3 headlines · 64th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11No game1 headline · 83rd of 138Lobo Football: Jason Eck Media Availability (10/5/26) New Mexico Lobos
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 61-7 vs. UTEP0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-18 at New Mexico State2 headlines · 76th of 138Jason Eck: New Mexico QB Toa Fa'avae is 'our guy' moving forward Albuquerque Journal

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from New Mexico’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

46%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobCovetedHighest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 23.1 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $1.1 million in 2025, the 32nd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.